I think this is absolutely correct:
If we shift our focus from finding the next group of speculators to finding the next killer use case, the future will undoubtedly be bright for Bitcoin.
I've posted this a few different times in different threads, but I think it's interesting to speculate about the use case of buying gasoline at the pump. There is massive potential upside to this case, as it is a very low margin item for c-store operators, and they are paying in the neighborhood of 4% on transaction fees. Gas is something many people buy a lot of and buy frequently. If the credit card processors could be cut out, there is almost 4% to spread between the c-store operators and the consumers.
The downsides include: speed of confirmation with BTC, rules regarding taxation (would technically have to book the capital gain/loss at every transaction, I think), lack of infrastructure at the pump in terms of BTC-native solutions. I mean, I could buy with CoinFueled or Qora right now, but that doesn't actually save the c-store operator the processing fee.
Partial solution would include equipping pump with a BTC wallet or some other native BTC-enabled system. Maybe one of Draper's VC army could get to work on building/selling a BTC-enabled gas pump to sell to c-store owners. But is there enough consumer demand that 2% of all BTC-for-gas purchases would pay for that hardware?
Bottom line, if I could buy gas with BTC, I would likely do it. I would also immediately replenish my BTC supply, just about every time, with a little bit of possible price arbitrage. If I thought I could buy cheaper before my next fill up, I might wait a few days. Especially if I could get a discount on the gas, it would be worth it.
But we're REALLY far away from this use case right now. The only use case that works, so far, is buying something online (computers, travel) that may not ship for 24 hours.
Note: there is nothing special about this use case, other than the fact that it represents something people commonly do, not online, and not mirroring the use cases that exist. I just find it to be a good mental exercise that helps me understand how far away we are from BTC becoming used consistently and frequently as a currency.
Once upon a time, the listed price at the "local" computer store is cash price. If one were to pay with credit card, you will have a 3% surcharge. Then e-commerce becomes popularize, and unfortunately, the best way to pay online is credit card. The cash price discount / credit card surcharge disappears. Given that, you would be very dumb to use cash to buy stuff - you are paying the same price but get certain protection with credit card, pay maybe 1.5 months later depending on the billing cycle, loyalty points, etc.
People make a point that BTC save retailers money, maybe, but will they pass it on to the consumers or they'll just pocket it themselves?
In this world, it's always the rich ripping off the poor, and the super-rich ripping off the rich ........
But I applaud you for your creative thinking.
