Distressful events: Is Bitcoin an alternative to FX? (Help with my thesis!)

[gustavo_mendonca]

Hello everyone,

I am a Brazilian economics student from University of Sao Paulo and I am writing my thesis on the Economics of Bitcoin.

Reading the papers "Bitcoin is Memory" and "Bitcoin: A primer for policymakers", both authors say that Bitcoin is perceived as a viable alternative in economies in distress, such as Cyprus (March/2013) and Argentina (January/2014). I found this really interesting and went to investigate if negative events for FX markets would make Bitcoin a viable alternative.

https://i.imgur.com/rZ9jJkR.png

I chose 5 events for my analysis: Argentina FX tensions in early 2014, Malaysia plane shot down by rebels in Ukraine, Indonesian, Indian and Greek elections. (I have organized the currency pairs so UP means depreciation and DOWN means appreciation).

Based on that, we can see that even though all of the events were distressful for FX, Bitcoin was a better option only in the upward trend in 2013. None of the events in 2014 pointed to Bitcoin being a better alternative.

So I'd like to ask your help! Am I missing something here? Is that a good approach? Suggestions? I am not a expert on Bitcoin, but I think it's a fabulous system and want to write about it so it gets more used here in Brazil. Many thanks!

[CryptoCarmen]

I would put it simple. There are lot of things that influence on Bitcoin. And when you put all pluses and minuses together you get what you get.  What you are mentioning is just one parameter among many.

[abs350]

Hello

When bitcoin was in a bull market, any news was interpreted well and the price kept on going up.

Since that finished, it's now the opposite unless we're in a dead cat bounce.

Basically the news is not really determining bitcoin - it's more the mood of the market.

Right now its still a bear market, so even good news is being interpreted badly.

[abrahamlitcoin]

What is Europe 2?

[lihuajkl]

There are many things impacting the price of bitcoin. The event of that MtGox in Japan filed for bankruptcy is driving down the bitcoin price a lot. The concern of  51% attack of Ghash.io, Paypal integrating bitcon payment.