Whoa, this can't be true!

[pqzilvaq]

I wrote the following two weeks ago. I have still have not seen a case where the avg. blocks per hour was under 6 although I do think I once saw it as high up as 8.

There exist a few old threads discussing whether mining follows price or price follows mining. I found arguments on both sides lacking and fail to understand how both cannot have an effect on each other. To me it seems clear that price effects mining. If the price climbs, more miners turn on their rigs. If price drops, miners must shut down. But what also must be considered is that if the mining equipment becomes more efficient this changes the supply of bitcoin and has a negative impact on the price. If the price shoots up and mining is very profitable, weird things can happen such as miners not needing to liquidate as many bitcoins to cover their expenses causing the supply on the market to be even more limited. I see all manner of reasons why both mining and price have an impact on each other.

In many months I have only seen once where the average bitcoins per hour as reported by bitcoinwatch.com has been under 6 blocks per hours. All other times it has been over 6 or over even 7. I did a rough calculation to see if we are ahead of schedule or behind schedule on the supply curve.

January 3rd is 2072 days ago. 1461 days make up the first 4 years where 50 bitcoins per block was generated which add up to 10,519,200 bitcoins. Since the first 1461 days, 611 days have passed which at a rate of 25 new bitcoins per 10 minutes should produce another 2,199,600 bitcoins.

Unless there is some error, 12,718,800 should have been mined but 13,235,425  have been mined meaning 241.5 million dollars worth of bitcoins prematurely have come into existence. This would not have happened probably without the price shooting up so fast and the improvements in mining efficiency. This is a staggering figure. If bitcoin's mining difficulty adjustments where far more quick and severe, who knows what the current value of bitcoin would be?

Is it wrong to assume that we will see something like a great slowing down, the great limiting period? A period where months upon months perhaps for a full year or more significantly fewer than 3600 bitcoins are generated per day?

If the price climbed very high partially due to a limiting of supply this would end up having an impact on mining leading us to our current situation. Perhaps now that amateur mining is no longer competitive and quantum computing is likely still very far away miners are coming closer and closer to a ceiling of maximum optimal efficiency.

I'm not a miner though so perhaps someone can clear up this confusion for me.

[Kupsi]

It's not a problem. It's just how Bitcoin works.

[cyberpunkzzz@bk.ru]

Here http://mining-profit.com/is lined with a lot of statistical information on the sights of prior periods and you will be better understood.

[shields]

A couple of things to note about this (without opinion on whether it's good or bad or neither)

1) It still does affect the overall total number of bitcoins there will ever be, it just means some are mined sooner than expected

2) The mining hashrate has been increasing at an exponential rate, which is what led to the mining being ahead of schedule. The exponential rate cannnot continue indefinitely, when it does, the rate of bitcoins being mined will slow closer (or even below) the schedule of 3600 per day.

3) The extra coins being mined, increases the rate of Bitcoin's supply side which actually keeps the price down if anything. For example if the miners are selling all their mined coins every day, that's maybe 4k hitting the market instead of 3600 - an extra 400 coins a day selling pressure for example.

Taking into account points 2) and 3) tells me that the current selling pressure by miners is likely to be more now than it will be in future, this is encouraging for hodlers no?

[Mieehayii]

don't be afraid, it's just no problem

[Wary]

A couple of things to note about this (without opinion on whether it's good or bad or neither)

1) It still does not affect the overall total number of bitcoins there will ever be, it just means some are mined sooner than expected

2) The mining hashrate has been increasing at an exponential rate, which is what led to the mining being ahead of schedule. The exponential rate cannnot continue indefinitely, when it does, the rate of bitcoins being mined will slow closer (or even below) the schedule of 3600 per day.

3) The extra coins being mined, increases the rate of Bitcoin's supply side which actually keeps the price down if anything. For example if the miners are selling all their mined coins every day, that's maybe 4k hitting the market instead of 3600 - an extra 400 coins a day selling pressure for example.

Taking into account points 2) and 3) tells me that the current selling pressure by miners is likely to be more now than it will be in future, this is encouraging for hodlers no?

FTFY