[2014-12-19] What the Data Says: This is Going to Escalate Quickly

[LiteCoinGuy]

The magnitude and speed of Bitcoin’s disruption to society will both be larger than anything mankind has ever seen.

http://decentral.ca/what-the-data-says-this-is-going-to-escalate-quickly/

[aigeezer]

Thought-provoking piece - nice find!

"But compared to other earlier disruptive technologies, there is big difference with Bitcoin: adoption requires nothing more than installing an app."

[DooMAD]

It's certainly a nice article, but in terms of the number of years it takes for a quarter of the US population to adopt Bitcoin, it depends on when you start counting from.  Bitcoin is technically already 5 years old, so not a great deal faster than the 7 years it took to embrace the web.  Maybe we'll pick up the pace a bit in 2015.

[panju1]

In many countries in Africa (and now in India and Eastern Europe as well), people use simple cellphones to send money to each other without the Internet through SMS networks; it's called M-Pesa. There are services already that allow you to send/receive bitcoin via SMS using the same phones. There are also hobbyists who are making it possible to send Bitcoin transactions via HAM radio. Thus, the potential reach of Bitcoin is much larger than that of the Internet itself

I doubt if Bitcoin's reach will be larger than the internet. Sending Bitcoin transactions via Ham radio might be good from a novelty factor point of view, but will this method be widely adopted?

[LiteCoinGuy]

It's certainly a nice article, but in terms of the number of years it takes for a quarter of the US population to adopt Bitcoin, it depends on when you start counting from.  Bitcoin is technically already 5 years old, so not a great deal faster than the 7 years it took to embrace the web.  Maybe we'll pick up the pace a bit in 2015.

i thought the same. my guess is, it will take until 2020/2021 to reach 25% of the polulation in the US.

[voephilis]

It's certainly a nice article, but in terms of the number of years it takes for a quarter of the US population to adopt Bitcoin, it depends on when you start counting from.  Bitcoin is technically already 5 years old, so not a great deal faster than the 7 years it took to embrace the web.  Maybe we'll pick up the pace a bit in 2015.

i thought the same. my guess is, it will take until 2020/2021 to reach 25% of the polulation in the US.

no problem for me I´m still young and just want to get more BTC

[protokol]

Cool article, with some interesting data.

However there are slight differences with the technologies described in the article, and Bitcoin. In my opinion, people in general will be far more wary of converting their wealth to Bitcoin, than they would be of purchasing a TV/cellphone/Internet connection etc.

The benefits of these new technologies are blatantly obvious, (viewing TV channels for entertainment, voice or text communication nearly anywhere on the planet, access to unlimited information/video/other resources at the touch of a button). So when someone spends say £500 on a new TV or phone, even a 5 year old knows exactly what services and benefits they will receive.

With Bitcoin however, it's a little trickier. First off, you are exchanging your hard-earned money for something intangible and virtual, with no obvious benefit (people will pay for many "virtual" things, such as PC games, movies, porn etc, but these do have an obvious benefit). Yes, as bitcoiners we can see the benefits of this system and why it is superior to our current economic system, but most of us did quite a bit of research before we bought in, and we probably have a greater than average understanding of the flaws of fiat currency.

Another hurdle is the fluctuating price, and the lack of official support. To Joe Bloggs, buying it or spending it can seem like a gamble in which he could lose money. If the price halves, or you don't receive your alpaca socks through the post, you're on your own.

Although I do believe that Bitcoin is likely to be mass-adopted in the long run, I think it will take quite a long time (probably >10 yrs from now), or require a major economic crisis. I just feel that it's much harder for people to see why they need it, and why it's better than paypal or visa...

We shall see!