oscillating pattern says we leave $200 1 june

[pleaseexplain]

I know this is just the speculation forum, and I do encourage posts like these, but there's effectively no justified TA behind those predictions. Yeah, they are simplified patterns, but nothing more, really. You always have to factor in that there will be an incredible demand as we're approaching levels below $220.

I agree - as i said in the original post it is does not make any sense  - it is just a fun prediction I have made up from looking a a few previous time/price points. But I do think it will be soon below $200 and easily go to under $100. That is because there is no new demand and at some point those who bought in the gox bubble will realise that and sell most of what they are still holding (as they are speculators not holders).
I have always believed that if we had not had the gox type events the price now would be $60-$100 having risen slowly to that point.

I disagree there will be incredible demand if it goes under $200. Who would that be? if you believed in the longer term price of bitcoin being great (as I do) you would be buying at $250 or $220 as when bitcoin is big you gain will still do very well.
$200 will not bring in new buyers. It may mean a few existing people with bitcoin buy a few more to help the av cost of their holdings but the total volume will be small. It might delay its decline for a month or two but no more.

Bitcoin history showed us when the price dropped from $31 to $2 nobody bought it at say $8-$10 on the way down which would be roughly the equivalent to today's $200 mark. They let it go to the bottom.  Maybe when the twins exchange is up and running new demand will come in but it may take some time to move the price.
 
But this bitcoin so who knows?

[Q7]

We have been to 160 and bounced back but I don't see that being taken into consideration. Fact is yeah, it's slowly moving downward, I don't discount the fact that one day it might even reach 100 but I'm confident once it really hits the bottom level, there next pattern should be up. Statistics data in the past have shown that and proven that sometimes it is at best unreliable and price have known to bounce back when it is least unexpected.

[minerpumpkin]

I know this is just the speculation forum, and I do encourage posts like these, but there's effectively no justified TA behind those predictions. Yeah, they are simplified patterns, but nothing more, really. You always have to factor in that there will be an incredible demand as we're approaching levels below $220.

I agree - as i said in the original post it is does not make any sense  - it is just a fun prediction I have made up from looking a a few previous time/price points. But I do think it will be soon below $200 and easily go to under $100. That is because there is no new demand and at some point those who bought in the gox bubble will realise that and sell most of what they are still holding (as they are speculators not holders).
I have always believed that if we had not had the gox type events the price now would be $60-$100 having risen slowly to that point.

I disagree there will be incredible demand if it goes under $200. Who would that be? if you believed in the longer term price of bitcoin being great (as I do) you would be buying at $250 or $220 as when bitcoin is big you gain will still do very well.
$200 will not bring in new buyers. It may mean a few existing people with bitcoin buy a few more to help the av cost of their holdings but the total volume will be small. It might delay its decline for a month or two but no more.

Bitcoin history showed us when the price dropped from $31 to $2 nobody bought it at say $8-$10 on the way down which would be roughly the equivalent to today's $200 mark. They let it go to the bottom.  Maybe when the twins exchange is up and running new demand will come in but it may take some time to move the price.
 
But this bitcoin so who knows?

Aww, well... There will be demand below $200 because there are so many people who bought all the way up to almost $1200. They perceive today's prices as 'cheap' and consider Bitcoin to be 'undervalued' - and whether they are wrong or spot on... no one knows!
Yeah, the bubbles of 2013 may very well have been artificially created by Gox's Willy. But there are trendline-predictions that basically say that we're back on the long-term exponential support line right now, if you chose to ignore the 'gox-bubbles'.

[ensurance982]

We have been to 160 and bounced back but I don't see that being taken into consideration. Fact is yeah, it's slowly moving downward, I don't discount the fact that one day it might even reach 100 but I'm confident once it really hits the bottom level, there next pattern should be up. Statistics data in the past have shown that and proven that sometimes it is at best unreliable and price have known to bounce back when it is least unexpected.

I'm bullish, at least long-term, but we've seen rebounds before, just take a look at the charts. From what the past is telling us, it really is most likely that we'll be falling down at some point and go even lower. On the bullish side: It seems to have become a lot harder for the bears to push us down and they can't do this infinitely long. They will also run out of money at some point!