math telling us that bitcoin will rise
1. wrong. math does not tell anything about price.
2. you've forgot about physics
if the demand remain constant and the supply drop it will rise, and this is math, so yes, math is telling us about what will happen to the price
the role of physics as i understand it, has to do with the mining activity and security, which are to things that can mutate in a far distant future, nothing to worry about or consider for now
If demand remain constant the price will go down. New bitcoins is mined every day and demand must rice to keep the price.
Pure math tells us the price will go down but math has no influence on the demand.
no this is wrong on so many levels, if the demand remain constant(which assume also that their ratio is 1:1, between supply and demand) the simple fact that the block reward will be halved
mean that the price will rise 100% because there will be less dumping from miners which mean the
ratio will favor the constant demand, instead of 1:1 right now(which isn't true because we are rising slowly, so its more realistic to say 1.01:1) you will have 1:001:0.9-0.8 it depend on how many coins are dumped each day from miners
easy example, now demand and suppply
p.s. it seems that you are not taking into account the halving...