This all seems very technical guys, is it even possible to try & calculate something so complex?
It's not something I've ever looked at but I'd be interested to see if anybody can confirm some success with a formula or something?
To be honest I just bet small amounts that I don't mind losing, I just roll for fun, never bothered to get so technical about it.
I've had some good luck with Da Dice, it's a cool site, you should give it a go -
https://dadice.com