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狂想家马斯克,或许难撑科技未来
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Topic: 狂想家马斯克,或许难撑科技未来 (Read 281 times)
Zhan21
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狂想家马斯克,或许难撑科技未来
May 27, 2015, 01:20:31 AM
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企业界里,马斯克可以称作是故事大王。不仅开发了特斯拉电动车,引领互联网汽车潮流。而且还经营SpaceX火箭,搞太空旅游。现在,他又幻想把高铁装进隧道里,制造超级高铁。科技创造上,这得算是个全能人物。只不过有个疑问,人类科技的重要推进,必须得靠这样天马行空的理想型企业家吗?
实际高速铁路,火箭,乃至互联网等高新科技,一开始就是为军事服务的。它们是大对抗的产物。一旦没有了激烈的军事对抗,就没有了急迫的现实需求。它们大多数的发展也就懈怠了。我们实际生活在科技停滞时代。中国的高速铁路是靠国家意志,全世界的火箭再没超过土星五,我们已经数十年没有过登月了,如此等等。互联网的高速发展,是一俊遮百丑,它本身就是军用转民用的成果。
马斯克这样的梦想家是否就能引领新的科技革命发展呢?大概不能。私企筹集资本的规模有限,且市场情绪瞬息万变,不够稳定。且赚取短期利润的投机资本甚多,并不适合战略家进行长期布局。这一如小米董事长雷军所言,他们五年不上市,因为市场的投资者连五年的稳定也维持不了。
这些私有资本很难承担长期的,艰巨的基础。只喜欢赚后面的快钱。由此来说,互联网科技革命还是有一定的局限性的。关于产业长期的,战略性的基础研究乃至大规模的应用,根本指望不上这些资本。马斯克虽然研制了特斯拉电动汽车,但它的推广举步维艰。新交通方式的应用上,马斯克的电动汽车与中国政府推动的高铁建设可以进行一个比较。就是说迄今为止,政府在推动大规模的基础型科技应用方面要远超私企。拉开一个新的科技时代,当然理想型的企业家少不了,但更重要的还是政府。
科技进入人们的生活,一般有两个途径,一是军转民,如上的高铁,互联网等等,就是军转民的成果。另一个路径是奢侈消费,引领消费潮流。这方面苹果手机是典型的例子。但即便是手机,其前身也是军用的无线电技术。可以说军工科技属于是科技前锋。
还记得三体里的故事情节,三体人发出了灭亡威胁,人类这才快马加鞭地走向了太空时代。人类的下一个科技革命在哪里?或许也是在大对抗重开之时。消费主义的科技革命在挖掘尽军工科技溢出的消费红利之后,可能就再难进一步推进了。比如,那个著名的贝尔实验室,擅长基础科技研究,但它当下就只能靠朗讯这样的私有企业支撑着,因此屡经分拆之后,它衰落了。科技创造美好未来,但不代表这些不能提供中长期基础科技投入的企业能够创造。
因此说,新的科技革命,或许也与互联网的物联化有关,不仅是需要马斯克这样的理想家,还得有出手阔绰且耐心的国家意志的参与,只不过这些国家意志,得要适应新时代的特征。
作者:姜洪智 | 来源:iDoNews专栏
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狂想家马斯克,或许难撑科技未来
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