Bitcoin price suppression - futures volume vs spot volume

[Wind_FURY]

What changed then? I mean yeah between 2009-2017 there were no futures market and we grew a lot, sure that part is true, but what changed? Didn't we increased a ton since 2017 as well? The start of 2017 was 700 dollars, and peak of 2017 was nearly 20k dollars, where are we now? We are over 40k and we have went over 60k as well. So all in all I would say that even with the futures market we are doing fine, there is nothing that we should be sad about the futures market.

I understand that it is not really that much of a problem but at the end of the day it does give incentives to drop the price, that part is much true. I mean that doesn't mean that it is all bad, but I would say there are bad parts about it, I agree to that.

The change is the amount. You are 100% right about what you said, however the psychology of people changed because of the price. When it is few thousand dollars then people do assume 2x is easier, so from 3k to 6k sounds easier, and if it is 5 tk 10k that is still easier, or even 9k to 18k could become relatively easy. However when you are at 40k, it is harder to reach to 80k, or at least that is how people assume which is not half wrong but not fully right neither.

So, now futures have a lot easier time to make it go down because going higher is something that "sounds" difficult. From 40k to 50k sounds a lot harder than from 4k to 5k, which is why whales that want to drop the price can do it easier because convincing people is easier.

I agree with everything sana54210 said. The only thing I would add is, the other thing that changed is the volume of futures vs spot. It's not just a matter of whether there is a futures market that allows suppression. It also depends on the relative weight of futures to spot. Back in 2017, yes there was a futures market but it was tiny, in fact the futures volume was less than spot volume back then. Now, the futures volume is 10 times as big as the spot volume, making suppression easier. The trend is only continuing to widen.

OK, then do you believe that there are currently a group of market manipulators that’s currently suppressing the price, and do you believe that Bitcoin at a 6-digit valuation per coin is IMPOSSIBLE because of this suppression?

[leea-1334]

The change is the amount. You are 100% right about what you said, however the psychology of people changed because of the price. When it is few thousand dollars then people do assume 2x is easier, so from 3k to 6k sounds easier, and if it is 5 tk 10k that is still easier, or even 9k to 18k could become relatively easy. However when you are at 40k, it is harder to reach to 80k, or at least that is how people assume which is not half wrong but not fully right neither.

And you cannot really blame people in crypto for thinking like this because every cycle has become smaller in the multiples. I was lucky to see BTC go from below 1000 to 20k, and this year so far it has only did 3x from 20k to 64k.

At the same time people keep looking at other alts still doing 100x and 1000x and the main difference is in price.