Is the majority of non early adopters at loss today?

[worhiper_-_]

I downloaded daily trading data from 2011 and tried to look at certain things.

I'll start with a good remark. Here's the 24hr volume from the top 25 BitstampUSD days with the biggest BTC volumes. (Data from http://bitcoincharts.com 2011-09-13 to today)

Timestamp 18/12/2013 14/01/2015 25/02/2014 04/11/2015 15/01/2015 07/12/2013 03/11/2015 10/02/2014 19/11/2013 06/10/2014 14/02/2014 10/11/2013 07/02/2014 03/03/2014 05/10/2014 01/12/2013 02/10/2013 13/01/2015 05/11/2015 16/12/2013 20/11/2013 18/11/2013 19/12/2013 26/01/2015 24/10/2013

Volume (BTC) 137070.18 124188.89 115761.99 105959.26 83488.42 79852.42 77212.78 71860.54 71560.95 69537.66 68378.15 67237.41 66362.26 64914.82 61726.37 61544.38 60639.39 60556.16 60174.71 58806.7 57711.51 57089.08 56734.11 55829.61 55593.93

Weighted Price 527.76 189.84 480.66 445.45 207.35 706.83 389.22 638.64 597.83 315.47 623.49 299.68 702.59 632.09 305.81 945.67 109.65 235.97 401.92 730.62 542.03 549.7 622.34 282.21 185.91

What does this mean? One could say that there's great diversity between significant entry points in terms of price. Also shows that trading is still holding strong after the 2013 bubble.

Now for something not so joyful.

More bitcoin's have changed hands during days with a higher weighted price than 333 USD than the rest. ~58% of BTC trade volume has happened above 333 USD.

Does that mean that the majority of people that have traded bitcoin are at loss? Hard to come to such a specific conclusion just from the above, coming to that conclusion would require a very extensive study as well as looking at types evidence that might not even be available. The percentage certainly points towards this direction though.

[Mickeyb]

Yes, you will never be able to conclude sureky what exactly happened by just looking at the trades and addresses, but this what you have concluded does make sense. The biggest volumes and interest is when Bitcoin is climbing in price. Not when it's falling. So yes, it makes sense that many people have entered above $333.

This can also explain strong resistance points above these prices and why we have dropped so much down after we have reached $500. People were maybe cashing out and cutting their loses.

[Amph]

also there is no way to really know that the bitcoin of the early adopters really shifted they owner, there are some of them who play in the market with themselves, to manipulate it other have formed a group so they share all the coins, maybe real friends and stuff like that

but it's kown that the majority are at loss and only a tiny amount of people is earning big, then you get the random guy who is +0.1% in profit

[bitmarket.net]

also there is no way to really know that the early adopters bitcoin really shifted they owner, there are some of them who play in the market with themselves, to manipulate it other have formed a group so they share all the coins, maybe real friends and stuff like that

but it's kown that the majority are at loss and only a tiny amount of people is earning big, then you get the random guy who is +0.1% in profit

You have to keep in mind that bitcoins can also be aquired through mining, not only by buying them on the exchange.
The miners will be in profit, as long as the price is higher than their costs.

[Mickeyb]

also there is no way to really know that the early adopters bitcoin really shifted they owner, there are some of them who play in the market with themselves, to manipulate it other have formed a group so they share all the coins, maybe real friends and stuff like that

but it's kown that the majority are at loss and only a tiny amount of people is earning big, then you get the random guy who is +0.1% in profit

You have to keep in mind that bitcoins can also be aquired through mining, not only by buying them on the exchange.
The miners will be in profit, as long as the price is higher than their costs.

Yes, this as well. Majority of miners were at profit even when Bitcoin prices were around $220. That means that their profit has just increased now when the prices are about 50% higher!

[maokoto]

It seems to me that yes. Most people risk buying Bitcoin when they hear about Bitcoin price raise, and since the first adopters every price raise is followed with a price decrease.

[amrulshare]

well, I Agree also experienced anything like that sometimes if there is a significant increase in Bitcoin. probably due to the instability of senidiri bitcoin prices also influence the Majority profit. 

[richardsNY]

People only lose if they sell at a loss. As long as you don't sell, there won't be anything you lose. If you hold for the long term all current people will end up with great profits. It's only a matter of patience. Patience is worth thousands of Dollars.

[worhiper_-_]

People only lose if they sell at a loss. As long as you don't sell, there won't be anything you lose. If you hold for the long term all current people will end up with great profits. It's only a matter of patience. Patience is worth thousands of Dollars.

I don't think it works that way. If you buy an asset, your money is lost until you redeem the value. If the value falls after your purchase the redeemable money are now less than your investment. And until you redeem it 100% of the initial investment will be inaccessible, but with the price down even if you were to redeem it now you'd receive your initial investment minus the % the redemption value of the asset lost.