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Author Topic: "Once a trend is established it tends to persist and to run it’s full course."  (Read 492 times)
jehst (OP)
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December 08, 2015, 02:11:09 AM
 #1

"[W]e can make some universally valid generalizations about freely fluctuating exchange rates. First, the relative importance of speculative transactions trend to increase during the lifetime of a self-reinforcing trend. Second, the prevailing bias is a trend-following one and the longer the trend persists, the stronger the bias becomes. The third is simply that once a trend is established it tends to persist and to run its full course; when the turn finally comes, it tends to set into motion a self-reinforcing process in the opposite direction. In other words, currencies tend to move in large waves, with each move lasting several years."

- George Soros, The Alchemy of Finance (1987)

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
peonminer
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December 08, 2015, 02:15:02 AM
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So what you're telling me is I need to leave my long open for 3+ years? Cheesy
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December 08, 2015, 02:25:46 AM
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So what you're telling me is I need to leave my long open for 3+ years? Cheesy

Ideally 5  Wink
jehst (OP)
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December 08, 2015, 02:50:54 AM
Last edit: December 08, 2015, 03:16:04 AM by jehst
 #4

So what you're telling me is I need to leave my long open for 3+ years? Cheesy

It could be longer: Rick Falkvinge said that it generally takes about 10 years for a technology to overcome its usability issues (e.g. shitty streaming video/GIFs in 1995 to youtube in 2005).

Therefore, he predicts that 2019 will be the year when bitcoin truly becomes usable for the masses.

If we have a 3 year bull cycle lasting until 2019 and then usability is perfected in 2019, we could be looking at a 6+ year superwave.


Year 2021
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Supply Inflation: <1.8%
peonminer
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December 08, 2015, 04:24:06 AM
 #5

So what you're telling me is I need to leave my long open for 3+ years? Cheesy

Ideally 5  Wink
YEP

BTCitcoin is about to moon!

 The world economy just got canned! BTCitcoin is more valuable than ever right now! The price will soon reflect!

Quote
On Monday, the price of U.S. oil dropped below 38 dollars a barrel for the first time in six years.  The last time the price of oil was this low, the global financial system was melting down and the U.S. economy was experiencing the worst recession that it had seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.  As I write this article, the price of U.S. oil is sitting at $37.65.  For months, I have been warning that the crash in the price of oil would be extremely deflationary and would have severe consequences for the global economy.  Nations such as Japan, Canada, Brazil and Russia have already plunged into recession, and more than half of all major global stock market indexes are down at least 10 percent year to date.  The first major global financial crisis since 2009 has begun, and things are only going to get worse as we head into 2016.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs are even more pessimistic than that. According to Business Insider, they are saying that we could eventually see the price of oil go below 20 dollars a barrel…

At OPEC’s meeting on Friday, member countries decided to set its production level at 31.5 million barrels per day, and did not agree on what the new limit should be.

After OPEC’s meeting, commodity strategists at Goldman put out a note saying that oil prices could plunge another 50% in the coming months, as the oil market tries to rebalance the supply and demand situation.

That may sound really good to you, especially if you fill up your gas tank frequently.  But the truth is that plunging oil prices are exceedingly bad for the U.S. economy as a whole.  In recent years, the energy industry has been the primary engine for the creation of good jobs in this country, and now those firms are having to lay off people at a frightening pace.  Not only that, CNBC’s Jim Cramer is warning that many of these firms may actually start going under if the price of oil doesn’t start going back up soon…

Former global macro fund manager Raoul Pal says there’s now a 65% chance of a global recession.

What amazes me is that so many people out there cannot see what is happening even though the next great crisis has already started.  The evidence is all around us, and yet so many choose to be willingly blind.

Instead of fixing our problems after the last crisis, we just papered them over with lots of money printing and lots more debt.  And of course all of this manipulation just made our long-term problems even worse.  I really like how Peter Schiff put it recently…

What’s happening is pretty much what we would anticipate. I don’t see from the data any real economic recovery, certainly not in the United States.

We’re spending more money, but it’s not because we’re generating more wealth. We’re generating more debt. We’re using that borrowed money to consume and so temporarily it feels that we’re wealthier because we get to spend all that money… but we have to come to terms with paying the bill.

The bills are going to come due. Right now interest rates are being kept at zero which makes it possible to service the debt even though it’s impossible to repay it… at least we can service it. But once interest rates go up then we can’t even service it let alone repay it.

And then the party is going to come to an end.

Indeed – the party is coming to an end, and a new financial crisis is playing out in textbook fashion right in front of our eyes.

Hopefully you are already prepared for what is coming next, because it is going to be extremely painful for the U.S. economy.



http://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2015/12/guess-what-happened-the-last-time-the-price-of-oil-plunged-below-38-dollars-a-barrel-3254062.html

Quote
Brent and U.S. crude settled at or near February 2009 lows in belated reaction to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) policy meeting on Friday which ended without an agreement to lower production.

"Price-wise, the market could be going for max pain after this," King said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN0TQ03V20151208

Quote
Stocks have given back nearly half of Friday's big gains following a steep sell-off today for oil and industrial metals. The energy sector by far has been the biggest loser among the 10 industrial sectors in the S&P 500 after crude oil prices plunged to a seven-year low.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/stocks-sell-off-as-oil-plummets-to-seven-year-low-cm551132

BTCitcoin officially FULL BULL MODE

Sorry Lambie. Your central banky facade is about to come to an end. Forever.
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