Difficulty adjustments are normally about twice a month. At 8% per diff adjustment, the difficulty will MUCH MORE than double by halfing.
You are right. I have just done the maths and if we see 8% increases every 14 Days, the we would see the Doubling on May 12th.
Shows how deceptive an apparently low number like 8% is, when compounded only needs 4 Months for a doubling. So let's hope, as I hoped, that on average it is less than 8%...
Rich
The rise of difficulty will be much higher when the 16 nm chip based miner come out from BitFury and BitMain.
it depend on the value, there is a limit of the diff increase if the value do not increase in the future, and for the time being seems stagnant, so the diff will not increase indefinitely
i'm expectign a slow down soon, if the value stays the same
I'm not sure on slow down. We have a LOT of big players with cheap electricity, they can run at a profit where most regular people cannot. For example this week looks horrible on jump up, and price is going down.
So right now.... not to bright future on mining. Will this change before having? After? No one really knows or can give a good speculation as it's a long time away in crypto world.
I suspect these farms will just sell off the outdated miners to end users at a cheap price as they update to new miners. If they built the infrastructure to mine might as well keep on going.
The hard part is the big players I suspect have very low cost electricity. When you have that low of electricity it is going to have a hard time to find someone with cheaper electricity.
They might be able to do it though just going to be trough to find buyers. It is possible here is one that bought a bunch of old bitfury blades -
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1231822.msg13587711#msg13587711 . It is a interesting read.
