Every bit of speculation and hype is due to the block halving, so it has a very high chance that the price will go down quite deep directly after the block halving as there is not much left to hold on to once the block halving is over.
This is wrong. The price didn't go up until after halving last time and that's when the economic forces begin to take effect. Only idiots believe the peak is on the day of the halving. People are just stocking up right now because the coins will be more expensive soon.
With last time I assume you are talking about the previous block halving? You can't compare how it was back then with how it will be now. The block halving effect on the price has started in 2015. Not just now.
The speculation effect has started in 2015, the actual halving effect will start to kick in Q3 2016 and will likely only become really noticeable from Q4 2016 onwards.
