Co-existence with the ASIC worldkillers

[commandrew]

So I've already begun to order my mining hardware for a dedicated rig, and I just read about this Butterfly Labs computers that are supposedly going to "destroy bitcoin" and "make our mining operations complete garbage", if you've read any of the posts around here.

What I'm wondering is, will the difficulty rise so much after the advent of these machines that mining will not even pay for electricity on low end machines? I mean, if our low end mining rigs can't pay themselves off within the first year like most people hope, they may at least pay for their own electricity, right?

Cost of computer - cost of electricity < Cost of computer

So, obviously, us normal human beings will continue to mine as long as our rigs pay for their own juice.

Does anyone on this board have enough wizard status regarding the difficulty to safely predict when our power bills with usurp our hash rates in size? I'm okay if my rig doesn't pay for all of itself, as far as I'm concerned, I get another gaming rig that at least paid off a portion of itself.

[antimattercrusader]

So many conflicting views on this one.

I am sure the difficulty will skyrocket. I do not think it will destroy the bitcoin market.

It might even still be profitable to mine BTC if the prices continues skyward. But if ASIC takes bitcoin, turn your GPU/CPU hardware to Litecoin.

[Sothh]

ASIC are good for bitcoin.  They are only bad for GPU miners.

ASICs will improve the security of bitcoin, and make transactions more reliable.

And everyone with a GPU rig can switch to litecoin, and make the same, if not more money, than from mining bitcoins.

[antimattercrusader]

Second that! Before the sharp rise in BTC prices, LTC was significantly more profitable by my calculations. I see alot of arguments about that on the forums, but it sure appeared more profitable to me.

It's worth noting that the litecoin prices as well as difficulty has gone up considerably. I bought a lot of them back at 6 cents. Hope that pays off.

[Blazr]

What I'm wondering is, will the difficulty rise so much after the advent of these machines that mining will not even pay for electricity on low end machines

Most definitely. GPU mining is dead, in fact just a few weeks ago it was BARELY profitable after electricity cost, thanks to the recent BTC price increase that has changed though, but not for long as everyone (including me) has fired up their GPU rigs again to take advantage which will cause a network difficulty increase.

[DeathAndTaxes]

It would be stupid to build new GPU rigs now.  Difficulty will likely rise 20x to 30x or higher once ASICs are shipping in volume (I have no idea if that will be next month or next qtr but it will happen eventually).  Worse it won't stop there, on a long enough timeline (probably going into 2014+) eventually BFL and Avalon will sell so many ASICs that they will saturate the market.  Take a BFL product and pretend difficulty is say 38x higher than now.  Doesn't look like such a good deal for NEW CUSTOMER at that point.  So sales will dry up.  What is the solution?  Simple cut the price.  When sales flatline both companies will cut price, more a ton more units, and difficulty to jump to a new high.  The market will be saturated again so, cut, jump, saturate.   A couple cycles of that and it is time it move to smaller more efficient chips and start the process all over again.  Looking out years into the future it is entirely possible difficulty will be 100x to 200x higher than now and who knows it could even be higher than that.

There is no guarantee your rig will be able to pay for the electricity it uses.  You could end up in a situation where it costs $10 in electricity to produce $1 worth of Bitcoins, even if you pretend the hardware you are using is free.

[commandrew]

So LTC is the way to go? Isn't it a matter of time until ASIC moves onto those?

[Blazr]

So LTC is the way to go? Isn't it a matter of time until ASIC moves onto those?

So people say, I personally don't see the point of LTC anymore seeing as its entire purpose was to be a CPU-mined coin only, and now its not. I wouldn't really call it a currency as its rarely traded for products and services.

[Blazr]

You could end up in a situation where it costs $10 in electricity to produce $1 worth of Bitcoins, even if you pretend the hardware you are using is free.

That's already the case in some parts of the world that don't have cheap nuclear electricity.

[Sothh]

So LTC is the way to go? Isn't it a matter of time until ASIC moves onto those?

So people say, I personally don't see the point of LTC anymore seeing as its entire purpose was to be a CPU-mined coin only, and now its not. I wouldn't really call it a currency as its rarely traded for products and services.

Litecoin does make sense, but not really as a currency.  It makes sense as a way to mine using your CPU/GPU and still make money.  You don't really even have to look at it as a currency.  Its a platform to trade CPU/GPU cycles for bitcoins.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Litecoin does make sense, but not really as a currency.  It makes sense as a way to mine using your CPU/GPU and still make money.  You don't really even have to look at it as a currency.  Its a platform to trade CPU/GPU cycles for bitcoins.

So greater fool theory?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

[Sothh]

Litecoin does make sense, but not really as a currency.  It makes sense as a way to mine using your CPU/GPU and still make money.  You don't really even have to look at it as a currency.  Its a platform to trade CPU/GPU cycles for bitcoins.

So greater fool theory?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

Not so much.  I find it better to look at it this way: value=watts used to mine.

In reality, this is all bitcoin or litecoin or anycoin comes down to.  The market will level at some point, and this will be true.

So if it takes an ASIC $10 in power, using $10 in power on your GPU to mine litecoins should be just as profitable.

[antimattercrusader]

Litecoin does make sense, but not really as a currency.  It makes sense as a way to mine using your CPU/GPU and still make money.  You don't really even have to look at it as a currency.  Its a platform to trade CPU/GPU cycles for bitcoins.

So greater fool theory?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory

Lol, I like that.

One might consider it a store of value more than a medium of exchange. Just a thought.

[Heathrow]

Yes, the ASIC rigs are going to put GPU miners out of business.  It hasn't quite happened yet, but it will happen very soon.  This isn't the end of the world for BitCoin.  It's just the end of the world for GPU BitCoin minders.  Consider swapping to mining GPU mining LiteCoins when GPU mining BitCoins becomes unprofitable for you.