Exchange vs Over The Counter Speculation

[HyphyBTC]

My thoughts:

--Most buying is done off exchanges and OTC. By a wide margin too.

--China is not leading this market.

--Chinese exchanges with zero fees are being used to "control" the market, because bots are linked to these exchanges and people think China is leading the market.

--Bitfinex is linked to Chinese exchanges to provide liquidity. Just like when BFX was linked to Stamp. That is why some full orderbooks are not shown. When a large drop occurs on Chinese exchanges the volume stays within the same range, while Bitfinex drops with larger volume than normal. This is a combination of bot manipulation and Bitfinex offering liquidity.

--The rise to nearly 800 was one entity, the OTC sellers and buyers waited until this entity was done and then plopped up over 25K BTC in ask walls, now it's up to 35K. The 35K BTC is a mix of real coins and borrowed coins for sale. You can see this by looking at the full order book, you notice the amounts for sale at XXX.37 repeatedly at every dollar interval? There are other patterns you will see as well.

--The OTC buyers put sell pressure on BFX to keep the price down, so their OTC purchase will save them millions, by only making people who look at exchanges think we aren't mooning yet. Without their "fake" sell pressure we would be at ATH.

--OTC firms do not care about this "manipulation" because they get a percentage in BTC and know that they will sell much more BTC OTC when the price is reasonable and not mooning. OTC firms might also be in on the fake sell pressure.

--My guess is currently someone wants to buy OTC in the $650 range, or an OTC firm is seeing an influx of customers and is easier to just have stable prices for everyone Brexiting or running from their fiat market.

--The Bitfinex "malfunction" was deliberate. Using statements from above you can see that dropping the Chinese exchanges prices are easy, causing all the longs on BFX to be force liquidated. Well guess who bought up all those coins that were liquidated while also putting the price back in their range? BFX has a ton of fees in BTC to sell, and guess how they do it? That's right, mostly OTC. And if a buyer says "no way I'm paying $700+ for those coins when the price has only been at this level for a week", then BFX has only one thing to do, bring the price back down in the OTC range.

--Long term holders like myself, 4+ years, know this is going on and don't really care about exchange rates YET, because one day millions of small buyers who will only use exchanges will overpower any manipulation put forth by OTC markets and online exchanges.

What are your thoughts?

[European Central Bank]

who do you think these otc buyers are? i saw the recent tweet from bitfury refusing a 25000 coin sale to a family office. i can't believe the seriously rich have the time, knowledge or trust to play around with chinese exchanges to coordinate their buys.

and it assumes there's some type of trading cartel in operation. when greed's on the line i can't see large groups of greedy ass people acting in unison.

[spazzdla]

who do you think these otc buyers are? i saw the recent tweet from bitfury refusing a 25000 coin sale to a family office. i can't believe the seriously rich have the time, knowledge or trust to play around with chinese exchanges to coordinate their buys.

and it assumes there's some type of trading cartel in operation. when greed's on the line i can't see large groups of greedy ass people acting in unison.

There are many families who have a net worth 10 to 100x that of the entire BTC market cap..  These families are not the type to let a 1 in 5000 year revolution pass them by.

[HyphyBTC]

who do you think these otc buyers are? i saw the recent tweet from bitfury refusing a 25000 coin sale to a family office. i can't believe the seriously rich have the time, knowledge or faith to play around with chinese exchanges to coordinate their buys.

Money managers of multi-millionaire and billionaire families have to time to play around on exchanges. Its their job! Do you think these rich families are doing all the work?

A first time OTC buyer without a money manager might not take the time to "play around" on Chinese exchanges. A multi-millionaire who buys BTC monthly, or is buying over time might think it is well worth it to suppress prices themselves. OTC firms on the other hand have the biggest advantage of price suppression.

Also, Bitfinex is where I see the suppression happening not the Chinese exchanges. The Chinese exchanges are being used more for BOT MANIPULATION, i.e. I have a buy wall on BFX but nobody will sell into it, so my bot on the Chinese exchange drags the price down using a very little amount of coins, then the price on BFX drops right through my buy wall. The volume on Chinese exchanges is so high that the only way it is possible is if you buy and sell to yourself over and over, to manipulate the price. This only started happening when zero fees exchanges came around. There aren't millions or even thousands of people buying bitcoin a day, most of the volume is a few whales prying bitcoin from all the small minnows that are trying to trade.

I lot a few hundred BTC margin trading before I figured this all out. Now I keep a significant amount in cold storage, try to think like the manipulator, and buy the dips. Ive made back the BTC I lost and some since then.

EDIT: and the whole working in unison thing isn't happening. Most OTC buyers only buy once or maybe twice. They only need to "manipulate" for a week at most, or until their buy/sell goes through. Then the market moves suppression free. When the next billionaire buyer comes along, they then do what they need to get their good price. The only ones who do this over and over, or non stop, are OTC firms and buyers who continually buy, and there are far fewer of them then "normal" OTC buyers. I am not saying that there isn't a coalition out there, but I'm more sure about the rest.

[Dafar]

So whales have been suppressing the price for the last 2.5 years.... are they ever going to let it fly? Or is this keep-the-price-down-while-I-collect bullshit going to go on forever?

[European Central Bank]

So whales have been suppressing the price for the last 2.5 years.... are they ever going to let it fly? Or is this keep-the-price-down-while-I-collect bullshit going to go on forever?

this is what doesn't quite add up for me. once one whale is happy then there are still hundreds of thousands or millions more. if each of them gets a boner too then this'll still be waiting to break out in 500 years and no one else is gonna give a shit any more.

[PigUsher]

ITT, we purport that price pumps are natural growth, while the consecutive dumps are the work of Saurian families nests.

[Alley]

I've noticed that anytime the price moves more then $1 it's manipulation.

[w00t]

There can be some manipulation but not all the time, not everywhere and not at the same time. There might be some volume on Darkpools but what about the other exchanges? BTC-E? Bitstamp? Coinbase? If Bitfinex is manipulating the price why it's not behind while the others are raising? I don't see any disproportion in price at the other exchanges.

Opinions?

[HyphyBTC]

There can be some manipulation but not all the time, not everywhere and not at the same time. There might be some volume on Darkpools but what about the other exchanges? BTC-E? Bitstamp? Coinbase? If Bitfinex is manipulating the price why it's not behind while the others are raising? I don't see any disproportion in price at the other exchanges.

Opinions?

Arbitrage keeps all the exchanges somewhat close in price. I point out Bitfinex because of the use of margin trading. I could suppress the price by shorting while keeping collateral in USD. Once I'm done buying OTC I can use those dollars to buy BTC and push the price up a tad, which makes my stockpile of fresh OTC Bitcoin worth even more.

In reply to post about manipulation and conspiracy and blah blah blah, I say "manipulation" in quotes, well I try to, because this is all fair game. Of course there is natural selling and natural rises. This thread  was in a general reply for all those that think Bitcoin is not seezing any growth from Brexit, when in fact you just can't see it, and why you can't see it.  The point is once more buying is done on exchanges or once we get a trustful decentralized exchange, like the waves platform, we will see unheard of growth that will over power any "manipulation" or tricks that are feasible today.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

From http://www.ofnumbers.com/

[w00t]

There can be some manipulation but not all the time, not everywhere and not at the same time. There might be some volume on Darkpools but what about the other exchanges? BTC-E? Bitstamp? Coinbase? If Bitfinex is manipulating the price why it's not behind while the others are raising? I don't see any disproportion in price at the other exchanges.

Opinions?

Arbitrage keeps all the exchanges somewhat close in price. I point out Bitfinex because of the use of margin trading. I could suppress the price by shorting while keeping collateral in USD. Once I'm done buying OTC I can use those dollars to buy BTC and push the price up a tad, which makes my stockpile of fresh OTC Bitcoin worth even more.

In reply to post about manipulation and conspiracy and blah blah blah, I say "manipulation" in quotes, well I try to, because this is all fair game. Of course there is natural selling and natural rises. This thread  was in a general reply for all those that think Bitcoin is not seezing any growth from Brexit, when in fact you just can't see it, and why you can't see it.  The point is once more buying is done on exchanges or once we get a trustful decentralized exchange, like the waves platform, we will see unheard of growth that will over power any "manipulation" or tricks that are feasible today.

but if you do fake shorts with yourself can you actually do the arbitrage? I'm not saying you are wrong or anything just trying to understand it.

[ahpku]

From http://www.ofnumbers.com/

[img ]https://bitcoinnewsmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/fakevolume.png[/img]

From linked article:

During my multi-country travel I learned that there are several regional companies that sell debit cards with pre-loaded amounts of cryptocurrency on them. Allegedly two of of the popular use-cases for these cards is: bribery and money laundering. The example I was provided was that it is logistically easier to move $1 million via a thin stack of debit cards than it is to carry and disperse bags of cash with.

The author doesn't seem to have a clear understanding of how crypto works. there's no need for a "stack of debit cards," thick or thin.

[HyphyBTC]

There can be some manipulation but not all the time, not everywhere and not at the same time. There might be some volume on Darkpools but what about the other exchanges? BTC-E? Bitstamp? Coinbase? If Bitfinex is manipulating the price why it's not behind while the others are raising? I don't see any disproportion in price at the other exchanges.

Opinions?

Arbitrage keeps all the exchanges somewhat close in price. I point out Bitfinex because of the use of margin trading. I could suppress the price by shorting while keeping collateral in USD. Once I'm done buying OTC I can use those dollars to buy BTC and push the price up a tad, which makes my stockpile of fresh OTC Bitcoin worth even more.

In reply to post about manipulation and conspiracy and blah blah blah, I say "manipulation" in quotes, well I try to, because this is all fair game. Of course there is natural selling and natural rises. This thread  was in a general reply for all those that think Bitcoin is not seezing any growth from Brexit, when in fact you just can't see it, and why you can't see it.  The point is once more buying is done on exchanges or once we get a trustful decentralized exchange, like the waves platform, we will see unheard of growth that will over power any "manipulation" or tricks that are feasible today.

but if you do fake shorts with yourself can you actually do the arbitrage? I'm not saying you are wrong or anything just trying to understand it.

You don't actually Short the market. You put a bunch of asks on the orderbokk, using margin, with your fiat as collateral. Like 10BTC every dollar, like 10btc at 801.37 and 10btc at 802.37. This eventually adds up to the 25K or 35K BTC in asks on BFX that came out of nowhere a few days ago. This person probably has a bot to take down those Margin Short Aks if the price approaches. This creates downward pressure on the market. It may even scare a smaller whale into holding off "buying to the moon", because he can't afford for those asks walls to come crashing down on him and his recently accumulated BTC. After this "manipulator" is done buying he will either buy his own shorts to bring the market up (creating profit on his OTC buy) or he pulls his margin asks, starts buying with that fiat and the traders rally behind him because they think the "Seller Whale has been taken down!" (Also creating profit on his OTC buy)

A few years back when user/ Loaded was around he use to talk of a whale eat whale world on the exchanges. Talked about bigger whales ruining his plans, etc.  This was right when OTC was getting starting. To say this still isn't happening one would be naive.

[w00t]

that's really interesting HyphyBTC - thanks for sharing.

[HyphyBTC]

So whales have been suppressing the price for the last 2.5 years.... are they ever going to let it fly? Or is this keep-the-price-down-while-I-collect bullshit going to go on forever?

this is what doesn't quite add up for me. once one whale is happy then there are still hundreds of thousands or millions more. if each of them gets a boner too then this'll still be waiting to break out in 500 years and no one else is gonna give a shit any more.

Sell pressure here and there from one or more people, creates a bear market. The traders then do the rest. If MatTheCat or one of the EW guys predict a breakout, which might interfere with a whales plans, all the whale has to do is prevent the breakout. The whales don't have to do this 24/7 is what I'm trying to say. So even between two entities "manipulating" the market, the market wont change all a of sudden because of the sentiment. This overall sentiment is what the whales make the chartist think by, "manipulating" the chart using described methods.

[hacknoid]

News URL : https://medium.com/@vinnylingham/the-1-dont-use-bitcoin-exchanges-ff019774d886#.5p7fsgnjn

[PigUsher]

^Right. The 1% don't use exchanges, because they like to pay too much by buying BTC with cash, behind the Dairy Queen dumpster, from BitKing6977.
The 1% is secretly accumulating all the bitcoins, they have taken all our bitcoins and hoarded them for themselves! Hidden all the coin in some... secret Jew cave that they built, probably back in the early 60s!