Need short-term and long-term advice...

[smackdaddy]

The change in difficulty is a HUGE unknown variable in ROI calculations...as is the value of the bitcoin itself.

Would I advise somebody to drop $100k on a mining setup? Only if it's clear they have the ability to move $100k worth of used computers if they needed to.

It would feel the true opportunity in bitcoins is meta....an exchange, a service to facilitate purchasing of goods from sites that don't accept bitcoins, etc. It "feels" like this is an emerging market with many opportunities...but I feel like mining is small thinking, in terms of generating significant recurring revenue.

[Alik]

The change in difficulty is a HUGE unknown variable in ROI calculations...as is the value of the bitcoin itself.

Would I advise somebody to drop $100k on a mining setup? Only if it's clear they have the ability to move $100k worth of used computers if they needed to.

It would feel the true opportunity in bitcoins is meta....an exchange, a service to facilitate purchasing of goods from sites that don't accept bitcoins, etc. It "feels" like this is an emerging market with many opportunities...but I feel like mining is small thinking, in terms of generating significant recurring revenue.

Great points. What would an example of BIGGER thinking, in terms of generating significant recurring revenue using bitcoin as a platform or utilizing it another way?

[Fakeman]

Here's an idea, figure out something you can profitably pay people in bitcoins to do, that can be done just sitting at a computer. You can't have a real economy without jobs, and right now about the only viable 'job' that pays in bitcoins is making bitcoins. It would have to be piecework because paying hourly would create an unnecessary administrative burden.

There are all kinds of bored-ass people sitting at computers who might be happy to e.g. proofread OCR, categorize images or write/summarize articles for money. Some are bored enough to do some of that for free but eventually anyone gets tired of that, look at how the Wikipedia model frustrates a lot of productive people into leaving. Whatever they make, even if they don't make a lot starting out as is the nature of piecework, can potentially increase in buying power if the price of bitcoins goes up. Additionally, the fact that all those people have bitcoins to spend furthers the goal of widespread use. You ensure quality by cross checking results and rewarding high accuracy/writing quality with extra bonuses.

Good points and good thinking. What about on the e-commerce end?

Can you elaborate on what you mean?

[bigewok]

To create a new business you must find a market inefficiency and correct it. You will then be rewarded with profits. I do not see an inefficiency with bit coins in this aspect. Using it as a rival auction currency would rival Paypal and eBay... connecting bitcoins to another type of currency for backing would be wise, but it would also require political structure across the globe.

[bprsFbc0]

Helpful thread, thank you.