Nice blog... yeah, I don't think anyone can really predict the bottom.
Hopefully 60 holds like you think it will.
I've done some TA too, MACD, MA analysis, etc
Definitely useful for looking at the past, but haven't been able to predict the future with it
The problem with BTC imo is that the "fundamentals" are terrible at this point, it's oversold and the value is highly speculative
I guess we're all trying to time the next bubble but this whole thing is a house of cards at this price level imo, even at this new "bottom"
What are fundamentals with BTC?
I'd argue that the only fundamentals that matter are merchant acceptance levels, and those are tiny.
So, hard to disagree. Very much a house of cards presently.
The bright side to me is the smart VCs entering the game (Andreesen Horowitz, Tim Draper, Lightspeed, etc). These guys have the money, the connections and the cultural clout within the tech startup community (where payments startups like Paypal and Square began) to substantially move the needle. Bitcoin needs a professional sales force going out and signing up merchants on the back of a very slick payments infrastructure, among many other things, and one thing VC money can fund effectively is that.
