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央行:M1与M2增速"剪刀差"与"流动性陷阱"无必然联系
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Topic: 央行:M1与M2增速"剪刀差"与"流动性陷阱"无必然联系 (Read 253 times)
niuvereg
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央行:M1与M2增速"剪刀差"与"流动性陷阱"无必然联系
August 15, 2016, 07:04:40 PM
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中国人民银行网站发布央行有关负责人就7月份货币信贷数据的答记者问。该负责人表示,今年以来货币信贷增长并不慢;并表示,M1与M2增速“剪刀差”与“流动性陷阱”无必然联系。
以下是答问全文:
1、7月份,M2同比增速比上月下降1.6个百分点至10.2%;人民币贷款新增4636亿元,同比少增1.01万亿元,余额同比增长12.9%;社会融资规模增加4879亿元,同比少2632亿元。对7月份货币信贷数据如何认识和解读?
答:今年以来货币信贷增长并不慢,而且今年数据有一些特殊因素,排除后总体上仍基本正常。从M2看,去年二、三季度股市波动较大,使当时的基数大幅抬高,导致近几个月M2同比数据有些“失真”,不代表真实增速。从贷款看,金融机构出于“早投放、早收益”考虑,一般上半年贷款占大头,今年上半年贷款增加7.53万亿元,同比多增近1万亿元,投放进度较快,虽然7月份贷款季节性回落,但累计来看仍较多。同时,还有几个特殊因素:一是去年7月份为应对市场波动投放了一些贷款,剔除后今年7月份贷款同比并不少;二是地方政府债务置换对贷款数据有较大影响,据不完全统计,今年以来仅定向置换的大中型银行贷款已超过8000亿元;三是金融机构加大了不良贷款核销和处置的力度。从社会融资规模看,近几个月同比少增主要是未贴现银行承兑汇票减少较多(7月份就减少5122亿元),这与票据市场发生了一些案件、监管有所加强有关。
我们预计,随着基数效应逐步消失,8、9月份M2同比增速将有所回升。我们还希望市场能够注意以下几点:一是在经济发展“新常态”和落实“去杠杆”任务的大背景下,货币信贷增长的中枢水平可能比过去有所调整,对此也需要适应。二是由于多种因素,货币信贷月度数据出现一定波动比较常见,我们建议应该避免对某个月的短期数据作过度解读。三是当前银行体系流动性充裕,利率水平低位运行,稳健货币政策将继续保持灵活适度,适时预调微调,为稳增长和供给侧结构性改革营造适宜的货币环境。
2、7月份4636亿元新增贷款中,几乎全部是住户贷款尤其是个人住房贷款,而非金融企业贷款减少26亿元。对这样的贷款投向结构如何解读?
答:从住户部门贷款看,今年增长确实比较突出,当然主要与不少城市房地产市场升温有关,前7个月平均每月个人中长期住房贷款接近4000亿元,季节性波动也不大。从企业部门贷款看,在经济结构深度调整、经济面临下行压力,特别是“去产能”、“去杠杆”背景下,企业总体信贷需求没有住户部门那么旺盛。但也不宜过度解读个别月份的贷款数据:一是企业贷款季节性波动比较大,7月、10月等是明显的贷款“小月”,“小”主要就体现在企业贷款上。二是地方政府债务置换减少的是存量企业贷款,不良贷款核销处置基本上也是企业贷款,今年置换和核销处置力度很大,还原后1-7月企业贷款同比还是多增的。三是1-7月企业债券和股票融资合计达2.65万亿元,同比多1万亿元,多渠道融资对贷款形成一定替代,这与提高直接融资比重的方向也是一致的。
3、7月份M1同比增长25.4%,为2010年6月以来最高,M1与M2“剪刀差”进一步扩大到15.2个百分点,其原因是什么,是否是进入“流动性陷阱”的反映?
答:2015年下半年以来M1增速持续上升,主要是企业活期存款增速加快。我们分析可能有以下因素:一是中长期利率降低,企业持有活期存款的机会成本下降。二是房地产等资产市场活跃,交易性货币需求上升,尤其房地产和建筑业公司持有的货币资金增加比较多。三是地方政府债务置换过程中会暂时沉淀一部分资金。
由于2014年和2015年上半年M1基数比较低,很多月份M1增速低于5%,也明显低于M2增速,所以近期企业活期存款多增加一些,M1增速就出现明显上升,这里面也有很强的基数效应。我们认为,M1与M2增速“剪刀差”主要反映货币在各部门分布以及活性方面的变化,这与“流动性陷阱”的理论假说之间相距甚远,并没有什么必然联系,不能作为衡量是否进入“流动性陷阱”的指标。
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