XMR (Monero) exit scam?

[dinofelis]

Yes but the short term fluctuation is losing 50% of your purchasing power in a matter of days. Also you cannot spend everything in one day. Sometimes it will take days before you decide when to buy. In my situation I was stupid to listen to the people in this forum. My emotions got the better of me into thinking that finally an altcoin will finally have some semblance of true value like bitcoin. I was very very wrong. That news posted by yelllowsin says it all. It was a pump and the pumpers made an exit.

Bitcoin is the same.  Remember $1000 end of 2013 ?  That was not "bitcoin usage".  The XMR $13 was not "monero usage".  If you were buying monero to "profit from the rise" then you were essentially gambling, like all those people, which were in the end responsible for its rise.   

Probably the true usage value of bitcoin is something like $10, and the true usage value of monero is maybe $1.  All the rest is gambling.  The $590 remaining $ of bitcoin, and the $10 (or now $6) remaining $ of monero, and essentially most of crypto's market cap, is people buying to bet on a rise, not to use it. 

When monero rose from $2 to $4 or so, I thought that was usage for a part.  When it rose to $10, that would have meant that if it was usage, it would been the money of a yearly multi-billion dollar market in a few weeks time.  That's not possible.

But bitcoin is not supporting a trillion-dollar market as its money either.  So most of this is just gambling.  The usage part of it is tiny.

[bbc.reporter]

@dinofelis. So what you are saying is that it is all a bubble? Even bitcoin? If they really are then now is not a good time to use them as a store of value.

[dinofelis]

@dinofelis. So what you are saying is that it is all a bubble? Even bitcoin? If they really are then now is not a good time to use them as a store of value.

For sure now most of crypto is bubble-sustained (what I call "greater fool theory").  But that doesn't mean that it will soon come crashing down.  There are 3 possible scenarios:

1) the bubble-sustained price will slowly be replaced by "true usage".   In that case, the speculators of today are in fact visionaries, who were earlier than others in seeing the true fundamental value of crypto.  Adoption is then true adoption for usage, and the profile of the average crypto user changes from "gambler" to "user".  That is, the demand for crypto will be less and less "to invest", and "to make profit", but more and more "to use it for real as money".  Unfortunately, that is not the current tendency.

2) the bubble-sustained price will rise, and rise and rise, as long as there are more and more greater fools (also called "adoption", but speculative adoption).  There will be a "last generation of greater fools" which will be the largest population interested in crypto for "profit" and which will be tremendously disappointed, because of course no more rise.  The result of this can be twofold:

2a) when it starts to become clear that there's no more rise in the future, the thing will come crashing down, like a genuine speculative bubble.  Bong.

2b) the "belief" in the system will have such long time constant, that the realisation of "damn, no more rise" will be spread over a very long period.  We will then see a very long, slow erosion of the price, until USAGE demand will be in agreement with the price, which will be a very large factor lower.

There can be a combination of 2b) and 1).  It may be that during the erosion of the speculative hope for higher prices, usage starts to increase, and the demand for usage starts to replace the disappointment of the last row of "investors".

I have no idea how high that the current bubble can still inflate.  Maybe there are still factors of 10 to be taken before one hits the ceiling.  But one thing is clear to me: the current price is MAINLY driven by the "hope for rise" and NOT by "usage", and that is something that mathematically comes to an end one day or another.  Tomorrow or 20 years from now, I don't know. The only question is HOW it will come to an end: crashing down ; slow, long erosion ; or slow replacement with genuine usage.

The question to answer honestly is this one: "suppose that most bitcoin holders today would KNOW that bitcoin will remain at $600 for the next 20 years, with modest ups and downs, would their demand and their holdings of bitcoin be the same on average as today ?"

If the answer to the question is "yes", then the current price is solid.  If the answer is "no" (which I think it is), then we are in the scenario I just described.

[European Central Bank]

Probably the true usage value of bitcoin is something like $10, and the true usage value of monero is maybe $1.  All the rest is gambling.  The $590 remaining $ of bitcoin, and the $10 (or now $6) remaining $ of monero, and essentially most of crypto's market cap, is people buying to bet on a rise, not to use it.  

if bitcoin's 'true' value is $10, and it may well be, then monero's is gonna be considerably less than 1 cent.

@dinofelis. So what you are saying is that it is all a bubble? Even bitcoin? If they really are then now is not a good time to use them as a store of value.

it's all speculation. but so is gold and so are stock markets too. you really think uber is actually worth tens of billions? it's just an app talking to bunch of slaves and it's losing money. there's no way you can untangle speculation, it's an intrinsic part of all markets and never goes away.

[dinofelis]

if bitcoin's 'true' value is $10, and it may well be, then monero's is gonna be considerably less than 1 cent.

Maybe.  I would think that the *usage* of bitcoin, and the *usage* of monero are not a factor of 1000 apart, especially after some dark market adoption.  That is not because I think that monero is used so much, but rather because I think because bitcoin is used so little.  But you are probably right that $1 was an optimistic view, and it would rather be less than that.

it's all speculation. but so is gold and so are stock markets too.

Absolutely not.  Of course there is some speculation on gold, and there is speculation on the stock market.  But *the bulk of the asset price* of these things is NOT normally due to speculation.   Most people buying gold don't do it because they think that there will be a *serious increase in the adoption of gold*.  Most people buying gold do it for a long-term store of value.  They don't expect to get out MUCH MORE than they put in.  Their *main motive* is not to have a, say, 20-fold increase of the market value of gold in 10 years.  They essentially want to keep their market value (and combat, for instance, fiat inflation and bank costs, hide from state interference, be able to give it to their children without being stolen by the state over it....).  Nobody is buying gold now at about $40 000 per kg (say, the price of a rather good car for a kg of gold) to be able to buy 20 good cars in 20 years with that gold.  People would like to be able to buy a good car with the gold they buy now, 20 years from now. 
The stock market stock price is essentially the diminished future cash flow of dividend.  People buy stock with the idea that their investment in *production capital* will induce *value production* and *economic growth* and take the reward for that.  They are not "hoping for a bigger fool".   The day that they buy stock at the correct market price, they will get their return in dividend as the market estimated.

Of course there is speculation but the demand for speculation is not such, that it makes the asset in question have a much higher market price than its "fundamental" price.  In fact, each time that that happens, one talks about a speculative bubble, and the market always ends up correcting for it.

you really think uber is actually worth tens of billions? it's just an app talking to bunch of slaves and it's losing money. there's no way you can untangle speculation, it's an intrinsic part of all markets and never goes away.

If that is really true, then this thing will come down one day, because it is a speculative bubble.
Again, there's nothing wrong with speculation (it fluidifies the market) as long as speculation is not the main drive for the price.   When speculation determines the price (when speculation in expectation of a higher price determines the price) the speculative bubble is inevitable.  From black tulips to dot-com.

[Febo]

I bought more and more instead because the Monero team was very confident. Now I feel that they have taken advantage of the situation and taken advantage of the trust of the community.

Are you joking?  I was actually taking you seriously on this forum.  

Why would you blame someone else for your investment?  I don't get this.  And you blame them because they are confident team. They should look less confident and woudl be fine?


I never saw any Monero developer out of 100 there are suggesting to anyone to buy any Monero. Never ever.


Now lets return to this article. It is about one smaller darkmarket namd Oasis closing.  Apparently that happens quite often and we did and will see lots closed. Most trade is of course made in BTC. Does this means end of BTC?  Oasis owners run away with bunch of BTC wil they dump them on exchange? Are Oasis owners actually an BTC developers?

LOL!!

Second part of article is about somoen who had no ideas what he is doing was mining Monero dust. When asked for help on reddit got lots of responses as it usually happens wherever you ask for help Monero community.


Article like thsi thread title is misleading.  Your statement i quoted. Is even beyond that. Please do reread it and think about it.

[noobtrader]

Just blame Spoetnik.

i agree... i even blame Spoetnik for my constipation. 

[ol92]

@dinofelis. So what you are saying is that it is all a bubble? Even bitcoin? If they really are then now is not a good time to use them as a store of value.

For sure now most of crypto is bubble-sustained (what I call "greater fool theory").  But that doesn't mean that it will soon come crashing down.  There are 3 possible scenarios:

1) the bubble-sustained price will slowly be replaced by "true usage".   In that case, the speculators of today are in fact visionaries, who were earlier than others in seeing the true fundamental value of crypto.  Adoption is then true adoption for usage, and the profile of the average crypto user changes from "gambler" to "user".  That is, the demand for crypto will be less and less "to invest", and "to make profit", but more and more "to use it for real as money".  Unfortunately, that is not the current tendency.

2) the bubble-sustained price will rise, and rise and rise, as long as there are more and more greater fools (also called "adoption", but speculative adoption).  There will be a "last generation of greater fools" which will be the largest population interested in crypto for "profit" and which will be tremendously disappointed, because of course no more rise.  The result of this can be twofold:

2a) when it starts to become clear that there's no more rise in the future, the thing will come crashing down, like a genuine speculative bubble.  Bong.

2b) the "belief" in the system will have such long time constant, that the realisation of "damn, no more rise" will be spread over a very long period.  We will then see a very long, slow erosion of the price, until USAGE demand will be in agreement with the price, which will be a very large factor lower.

There can be a combination of 2b) and 1).  It may be that during the erosion of the speculative hope for higher prices, usage starts to increase, and the demand for usage starts to replace the disappointment of the last row of "investors".

I have no idea how high that the current bubble can still inflate.  Maybe there are still factors of 10 to be taken before one hits the ceiling.  But one thing is clear to me: the current price is MAINLY driven by the "hope for rise" and NOT by "usage", and that is something that mathematically comes to an end one day or another.  Tomorrow or 20 years from now, I don't know. The only question is HOW it will come to an end: crashing down ; slow, long erosion ; or slow replacement with genuine usage.

The question to answer honestly is this one: "suppose that most bitcoin holders today would KNOW that bitcoin will remain at $600 for the next 20 years, with modest ups and downs, would their demand and their holdings of bitcoin be the same on average as today ?"

If the answer to the question is "yes", then the current price is solid.  If the answer is "no" (which I think it is), then we are in the scenario I just described.

Insightfull, clear and informative post, as  your other post about the difference with gold: a must read. Thanks.

[blackhawk101]

  Huh