We can breath now.

[myrkul]

Again, you were assuming all this time, that there was an initial BIG SELL at first, and I'm telling you that that's not the case.

Now that is a provable assertion. So prove it.

Again, I provided you supporting evidence (I'll have to be clear in my wording now) that it was the case. Yet, you misinterpret that evidence assuming things that are probably not true.
You kind of contradict yourself in the interpretations, you play the semantics game first talking about proof and supporting evidence, yet, you misinterpret or assume that by "sell" MTGox's statement meant "Big Sell"
I guess I rest my case here and again, I believe MTGox and their supporting evidence.

You're not even going to prove your assertion that there was not a BIG sell that started it all? Seems like that's a very easy assertion to prove... and your refusal implies that you can't.

To clarify: proof is data. Not somebody making a statement on their website. Thankfully, that data is available. Feel free to provide it.

[myrkul]

Again, you were assuming all this time, that there was an initial BIG SELL at first, and I'm telling you that that's not the case.

Now that is a provable assertion. So prove it.

Again, I provided you supporting evidence (I'll have to be clear in my wording now) that it was the case. Yet, you misinterpret that evidence assuming things that are probably not true.
You kind of contradict yourself in the interpretations, you play the semantics game first talking about proof and supporting evidence, yet, you misinterpret or assume that by "sell" MTGox's statement meant "Big Sell"
I guess I rest my case here and again, I believe MTGox and their supporting evidence.

You're not even going to prove your assertion that there was not a BIG sell that started it all? Seems like that's a very easy assertion to prove... and your refusal implies that you can't.

To clarify: proof is data. Not somebody making a statement on their website. Thankfully, that data is available. Feel free to provide it.

I see what you did there 

Let's assess the fact ok? because I believe your mind is in this state of "I must win this argument" when in fact, you should be thinking logically:

FACTS:

* There was an initial sell.

Big? Small? We do not know, but what do we know and can infer from this?:

Correction: I do not know whether this sell was large or small. You, presumably, have looked at the charts, and thus determined where and when the selloff started, and should thereby know the value of the original sell. Right? Or are you basing all of this, your entire argument, on the statement from the guys at Gox?

* The initial sell was performed by the attacker

Presumably. Of course, we only have Gox's statement to that effect.

* The initial sell was to gain the most value for the coin at the highest price

Given that this is the motivation behind all sell orders, large and small, malicious or virtuous, I think we can take that at face value.

If you agree to those two statements, we can proceed...

FACT:

* The attacker launches the DoS attack after a sell as stated by MTGox.

Presumably. But again, we only have Gox's statement to go by, for that. Unless, of course, they're willing to provide IP logs.

THE BIG QUESTION

Does the initial sell cause the sell-off or the destabilization of the trading engine does?

Yes, that is what we're discussing here.

Now, I have a question for you to answer:

People sell buy and sell ALL the time at MTGox. What makes THAT initial "sell" so special to cause a sell-off?

I believe this has been established. A large sell order can trigger a panic. Thus, the special feature of this sell is it's size.

The return question:
Websites (especially ones under near-constant DDoS attacks) experience outages all the time. What makes MTGox so special that being unable to log in, or make a trade, would cause someone to panic and sell all their coins using that very system?

Please think logically before answering and let your biased obsession for winning this argument go.

And that's all I have to say about that.

You might be wise to take your own advice, here.

[MatTheCat]

None of my claims are unprovable. I know my position, I have an exit plan and I follow it to the dot. I have a bullish position that I don't hide and if I'm called an arrogant because I proved a few bears wrong, so be it!
Whatever problem MatTheCat has with me, I don't really care. This is not personal and I judge you for what you have to say. If it's stupid, I'll tell you. I can be wrong, I'm not the source of truth, but I never talk about things I don't know and I really dislike the people that do.

All of your claims are unprovable because they all just amount to your opinion and/or your personal will on the matters being discussed. Opinions cannot be quantified and proven. It may turn out that you are right in the long run, but for all the wrong reasons. In which case, you wouldnt be 'right', you would have just gotten lucky, which would make all the arrogance in your replies and condecension towards other peoples comments who have a different view from you, even more intolerable.

See, in my opinion, the fundamentals underpinning the Bitcoin boom are frighteningly weak. The transactions involving real goods and services have always accounted for a very small fraction of the total USD volume in Bitcoins, and that was before the price jumped 700% in 5 months. That means the vast majority of the money in Bitcoins is speculative capital chasing large profits. Now, as I understand it, your opinion differs in that you believe something more along the lines of the boom in Bitcoins being largely due to capital fleeing the collapsing petrodollar system, towards a safer, anonynmous, yet still highly convenient digital currency. However, the fact that you, despite being an early adopter, openly boast of your ever so ingenius 'exit strategy', suggests that your main motivation is, or has become, to seek maximum speculative USD profit.

Now, it is a well known human trait, that traders (that is what you and 99.95% of the other bitcoin participants are or have become as a result of this mega bubble) are much quicker to sell stocks that have gained in value, in order to lock in profit, than they are to sell stocks which have stagnated and/or declined in value. The big question is, when does the Bitcoin rocket run out of juice? That will be a matter of two things.
 
a) When the herd stampede organically peters out.

or perhaps more crucially.

b) When the powerful hands with the might to drive the market up or down, decide that it is time to let Bitcoin plummet back down to Earth.

As soon as enough of the specualtive herd get a whiff that the top is in. They will drop Bitcoins like a burning lump of dog shit.

Of course, with Bitcoins characteristic volatilty, the coin can drop in value by 40% in a few hours without it being cause for mass hysteria, which could both serve as the factor that prolongs the bubble and also the factor that causes the amateurs to fail to jump of the train as it goes over its final cliff edge.

This of course just my opinion and instead of pouring scorn and derision on it, why don't you try to 'prove' that I am wrong. Clutching at random cherry picked 'facts' that just so happen to support your own personal paradigm does not count as 'proving anything. Oh yes, and bare in mind, my opinion is based on market behviour that has repeated itself time and time again over hundreds of years. Your is based on, 'ah, but this time it is different'.

[myrkul]

MTGox is the biggest exchange for bitcoins in terms of transactions and volume, although some people seem to disagree on this. They process more than 70% of the whole exchange market.
That being said, it's easy to see why a collapse, a DoS attack, a hack can cause people to panic and sell (Remember 2011?)

Quite clearly. My question remains, though: If your confidence is shaken so much that you feel you must get your money out of that service, why would you, instead of withdrawing bitcoins, and selling elsewhere, sell there, and hope they have the USD to cover it? Certainly you're not implying that Bitcoin's stability is dependent on MTGox's?

Honestly, after the facts presented, do you still believe that a big sell was the cause of the panic?

Still waiting on facts - and not opinions - to be presented. I'll let you know once you present some facts.

How do they hide the "big sell" transaction from MTGox so MtGox doesn't take action against that particular account?

You're assuming that they would. They would need concrete proof that the DDoS is coming from that person. Not just a coincidence of timing.

We can go on and on with this, my contention won't change and I believe it's the most logical explanation. Can I be wrong? sure. But the evidence is enough for me to believe that I'm right.

By "evidence," you mean the statement you linked to earlier? I've yet to see any other evidence presented.

By the by, you are aware that all Gox's buy and sell orders are a matter of public record, and easily accessible? I can look just as well as you can, and the longer this continues with you not presenting any hard facts, the more likely it is that I go do that. What do you want to bet I find a nice large sale right at the start of the "crash"?

[myrkul]

The funny thing is, I agree that MTGox's central position is absurd.
I agree that the price is bound to be higher in the future.
I agree that MTGox's stability can affect the market price... at least on MTGox.

But you refuse to countenance the idea that the instability might have saved us from a deeper dip, and that's funny. And a little sad, because your only evidence to the contrary amounts to "MTGox said so."

So, we'll agree to disagree, so long you're OK with me considering you a moron.

[myrkul]

The funny thing is, I agree that MTGox's central position is absurd.
I agree that the price is bound to be higher in the future.
I agree that MTGox's stability can affect the market price... at least on MTGox.

But you refuse to countenance the idea that the instability might have saved us from a deeper dip, and that's funny. And a little sad, because your only evidence to the contrary amounts to "MTGox said so."

So, we'll agree to disagree, so long you're OK with me considering you a moron.

First of all, I don't recall me calling you names, and second, I'm not sure I understand how the instability on MTGox saved us from a deeper dip in price, so please elaborate that and that seems like a new twist in our argument.

It's only a new twist if you haven't actually been reading what I've been writing. I've used that at least twice. Which brings me to my second point. I'm not calling you names, I am making an observation of your perceived intelligence, based on your ability to accept new information, and your willingness to accept a PR statement as fact.

Let me sum up my theory that MTGox's instability prevented a deeper dip:
Panic sell starts. Instability prevents users from entering new sell orders, or altering their buy orders. Buy orders are executed automatically, panic sell hits wall, price stabilizes. Users get back on, see stable price, and cease panicking.

You'll note also, that this meshes well with the theory that the panic sell caused the instability... if a constant DDoS is on-going, and suddenly there's more legit activity, such as a panic sell, the servers may well be unable to handle it.

[myrkul]

Well, I respectfully disagree with your theory.

As is your right.

Also, there is no reason to believe that MTGox statement is inaccurate.

Nor any reason to take it as fact, either. It should be noted, of course, that it doesn't contradict my proposed theory, nor does it back yours up.

[myrkul]

Well, I respectfully disagree with your theory.

As is your right.

Also, there is no reason to believe that MTGox statement is inaccurate.

Nor any reason to take it as fact, either. It should be noted, of course, that it doesn't contradict my proposed theory, nor does it back yours up.

We are back at square 0.
Basically, you're skeptical of their statement for whatever reason, and I'm not.
Also, it does backup my posture unless you're right and their statement is inaccurate.
What makes more sense? that they issue an inaccurate statement or that they issue a statement that is based on their findings?
Occam's Razor.

What makes more sense? That they're telling the god's honest truth, or that they're covering their ass? Let's ask Dr. House:



Well, there you go.

[MatTheCat]

The funny thing is, I agree that MTGox's central position is absurd.
I agree that the price is bound to be higher in the future.
I agree that MTGox's stability can affect the market price... at least on MTGox.

But you refuse to countenance the idea that the instability might have saved us from a deeper dip, and that's funny. And a little sad, because your only evidence to the contrary amounts to "MTGox said so."

So, we'll agree to disagree, so long you're OK with me considering you a moron.

The fact that he fails to see how the main exchange going offline could actually help prevent a panic sell, in much the same way as closing the banks, prevents runs on banks etc, shows that his whole line of reasoning is based on fulfilling what he desires the case to be. Probably, he doesn't even realise that he is doing it. He may even through pure chance (certainly not through accurate market insight), execute his 'exit strategy', before this bubble pops. If that is the case both his wealth and ego will swell to unfathomable heights, rendering him even more unbearable than he has already shown himself to be.

So, you are right in stating that bitcoin is speculative or more speculative than as a currency/exchange of goods tool, however, that is changing with more and more businesses starting to accept bitcoin.
I don't know the numbers, but if bitcoin is 90% speculation and 10% commerce/trading of merchandise the only tendency that I see here is that the volume in transactions related to trading/ecommerce/exchange of goods will only increase and the amount of speculative capital will decrease until they even out.

If someone could tell me for sure that 10% of the total Bitcoin trade volume is due to real economic transactions, then I would be jumping into Bitcoin face first, even at these prices. However, I suspect that to determine the percentage of Bitcoin trade volume that actually constitutes real exchange, that you would have to be looking at a decimal figure.   If I am correct, then under no conditions, could Bitcoin be considered a safe haven investment suitable for masses of fleeing capital.  Alongside the myriad of heuristics, which have the conceivable potential to bring down Bitcoin within a single day (some of which you have mentioned), all that Bitcoin can be considered at the present time, is as an incredibly risky speculative venture, with the potential to net investors huge gains, providing they don't already believe that the top has blown too high already. With that in mind, Bitcoin couldnt be any less attractive a proposition to any sizable business that is run with a modicum of risk aversion in its company ethos.

Until this bubble pops, and some stability is found at massively decreased prices, real world transactions using Bitcoin cannot expand in any meaningful way. In between now and then, is a high risk guessing game, trying to gauge the level of fuel left in the speculative movement into Bitcoin, both in terms of the 'innocent' speculators and those entities who are very probably knowlingly manipulating what is still a miniscule, and thus still a very easily pushed around market.

[BitcoinAshley]

Yay, the idiots finally realized that they don't need to quote 9 feet of text in every reply! (took them a page or so of bickering to figure that out, though.)

Quote-pruning provides much-needed rest for my scroll finger.

 

Oh yes, and this reply: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=167277.msg1750004#msg1750004 which I stuck in my signature, exactly sums up my opinions regarding the bitcoin code/protocol and what we really need to do to allow it to succeed. Gavin and friends are like the momma bird not quite ready to let her little duckling leave the nest... we need to take bitcoin's training wheels (and concrete-filled tires, and retarded random magic numbers) off, extrapolate a protocol already (and stick to it) so other people can make better clients, get rid of buggy external dependencies, and oh yeah - P2P exchanges would just be the icing on the cake. I know there are a couple in development that I've been meaning to start testing. Let's get on this shit folks.
I would donate to the bitcoin foundation to help spur development but from what I've read, they aren't even remotely interested in what I'm talking about. I can't code so my only options are to donate money or complain; I guess I'll stick with the latter for now until the former becomes effective.

[MatTheCat]

I'll address your last statement first:
So what are you doing here? you seem to be very bearish towards bitcoin. I'm not sure why are you following bitcoin at all... Just go pursue other investment options. I don't see you talking about developing businesses in bitcoin nor helping bitcoin in any way.

I have been using Bitcoins to make Silk Road purchases since 2010. The cheapest coins I bought were less than £3 and the most expensive around £15. Since I use Bitcoins for the purpose they were intended to be used for, and you see them only as a means to enrich yourself, I guess that kind of does make me a Bitcoin participant that contributes to the Bitcoin economy, whereas you, as a speculator, are parasiting from the whole Bitcoin economy. Which is what may kill it.

I have been very interested in the whole concept of Bitcoin and the opportunities it could offer mankind. The recent action in the Bitcoin market however, I view as highly negative for the long term health of the currency. Just to be quite clear, I am not riding any moral high horse due to the fact that I spend all my Bitcoins and have kept hardly any in my wallets, because obviously I am kicking myself that I never invested anything in them when I had every intent and opportunity to do so.

Regarding my 'bearish' attitude towards Bitcoin, only a fool could possibly think that Bitcoin isn't due for a heavy correction, if not indeed a near price collapse. That doesn't mean that Bitcoin may not triple or quadruple between now and then, because it might, and if it did, then anyone investing in them today (wont be me, that is for sure), would be rewarded with dazzling profit margins. Me personally, I would even be reluctant to use them to make any sizable Silk Road purchase as in my opinion, there always exists a huge risk that large chunks of the value of these coins can be wiped out in the time it takes for me to get the coins purchased, transferred to my Silk Road wallet, and then for the order to be processed. If I feel that way as a customer, I hate to think how I would feel as a vendor.

[abbyd]

...TLDR...
Occam's Razor.

Well, there you go.

Look people, you won't get PROOF - any number of scenarios are possible depending on the actors...

Let's say Gox shuts down 20 out of 25 servers, announces a fake DDOS attack, and buys up coin themselves
only if/when people panic?  There is plenty of money to be made, so people will use their brainpower to scam...
A huge correction is likely - there will be big losers and big winners.

That said, I think deathcode is probably right, and the attack on him seems undeserved.

[myrkul]

That said, I think deathcode is probably right, and the attack on him seems undeserved.

What he and MatTheCat have going is their own thing. I simply suggested that the "crash" could have overloaded the servers with legit activity, and he refuses to accept even the possibility. This fact, and the fact that his only reasoning for this refusal is "MTGox said they're under heavy DDos" is what has lost him my respect.

[Jobe7]

Dear OP,

You do not understand bitcoin, nor its potential (yet) and what it was designed and will achieve. Bitcoin is not a commodity, expecting 'lvl'ing' out and easier 'ups and downs' simply will not happen.

People who are trying to 'make a quick buck' by treating the exchanges like stock houses are badly mistaken about the 'essence' of btc.

Buy some, put some away for the future, sell some later, or preferably use it now or later on items.

Expecting bitcoin to 'level out' so you can play with it and 'win' money is like thinking you can make a snowman and have snowball fights with a few flakes of snow... when an avalanche is coming.

Blink and you'll miss it.

[mobodick]

Dear OP,

You do not understand bitcoin, nor its potential (yet) and what it was designed and will achieve. Bitcoin is not a commodity, expecting 'lvl'ing' out and easier 'ups and downs' simply will not happen.

People who are trying to 'make a quick buck' by treating the exchanges like stock houses are badly mistaken about the 'essence' of btc.

Buy some, put some away for the future, sell some later, or preferably use it now or later on items.

Expecting bitcoin to 'level out' so you can play with it and 'win' money is like thinking you can make a snowman and have snowball fights with a few flakes of snow... when an avalanche is coming.

Blink and you'll miss it.

Dear Jobe, if I don't understand bitcoin then you don't understand what I write. 

But what if someone understands what you write but think you're wrong?
Who, in that case, doesn't understand bitcoin or does.

[myrkul]

Dear OP,

You do not understand bitcoin, nor its potential (yet) and what it was designed and will achieve. Bitcoin is not a commodity, expecting 'lvl'ing' out and easier 'ups and downs' simply will not happen.

People who are trying to 'make a quick buck' by treating the exchanges like stock houses are badly mistaken about the 'essence' of btc.

Buy some, put some away for the future, sell some later, or preferably use it now or later on items.

Expecting bitcoin to 'level out' so you can play with it and 'win' money is like thinking you can make a snowman and have snowball fights with a few flakes of snow... when an avalanche is coming.

Blink and you'll miss it.

Dear Jobe, if I don't understand bitcoin then you don't understand what I write. 

But what if someone understands what you write but think you're wrong?
Who, in that case, doesn't understand bitcoin or does.

Well, clearly, any who oppose the almighty DEATHCODE are in the wrong. Even to doubt that his statements are 100% TRUFAX is heresy.

That said, Bitcoin is a digital commodity, and I expect that it will level out soon after we reach market saturation. Where the hell the price will be at that point is anybody's guess, though (I wouldn't trust proudhon on that one)

[myrkul]

Dear OP,

You do not understand bitcoin, nor its potential (yet) and what it was designed and will achieve. Bitcoin is not a commodity, expecting 'lvl'ing' out and easier 'ups and downs' simply will not happen.

People who are trying to 'make a quick buck' by treating the exchanges like stock houses are badly mistaken about the 'essence' of btc.

Buy some, put some away for the future, sell some later, or preferably use it now or later on items.

Expecting bitcoin to 'level out' so you can play with it and 'win' money is like thinking you can make a snowman and have snowball fights with a few flakes of snow... when an avalanche is coming.

Blink and you'll miss it.

Dear Jobe, if I don't understand bitcoin then you don't understand what I write. 

But what if someone understands what you write but think you're wrong?
Who, in that case, doesn't understand bitcoin or does.

Well, clearly, any who oppose the almighty DEATHCODE are in the wrong. Even to doubt that his statements are 100% TRUFAX is heresy.

That said, Bitcoin is a digital commodity, and I expect that it will level out soon after we reach market saturation. Where the hell the price will be at that point is anybody's guess, though (I wouldn't trust proudhon on that one)

As long as the price of BTC continues to go up, you can say anything you want, but I'm making money. Am I wright or am I wrong? who cares, I'M MAKING MONEY!!!

Have you sold yet?
No?
Then you're not "making money." Once you have sold, then you will have made money. Right now, you are holding a very volatile commodity. Be as excited as you like about the increasing price of that commodity, but don't call it "making money" until you have cashed out into something more stable. Like that motorcycle you were wanting.