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September 22, 2013, 12:10:26 PM |
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Just as a prelim - I think it is dangerous to rely on any one money system (Be it precious metals, Govt. Fiat, cryptocurrency, etc.) We could have a potential central point of "failure" - that can be in many many ways depending on the currency.
I think that if we had a cryptocurrency come out that really was better than Bitcoin, bitcoin would just incorporate it's advantages (if possible). If this is about developing a new money system type (in cryptocurrencies) then we shouldn't really approach this like a pure investor with a "jump ship" sort of mentality, but also look at the government, public and business aspects as well. They are not going to want to jump ship unless something really better comes out and would rather just wait for implementation imo. It basically looks like BTC is pretty close to being all that you need in a cryptocurrency, at least by todays standards, and as we need more we just add to it, rather than replace it. We need a killer app, if another cryptocurrency comes out with one, we follow it's lead.
Now, that said, I am sure there will be (and needs to be) more than one cryptocurrency. Having a few cryptocurrencies really can have it's advantages: - It can help to avoid tax in certain situations. Where as moving from cryptocurrenies to regular fiat requires taxes if a profit was made of course (in most situations and countries). (e.g. Germany is cool in that it doesn't charge capital gains on coins held more than one year.) But moving between LTC and BTC does not require a profit/loss statement to be needed. If I'm wrong, please tell me as I'm sitting on a small loss anyway. - Choice is involved. That means power struggles can be more easily mitigated by having options. Less fear of monopolization. We decide on what we want. - Political - It is getting scary regarding the increasingly serious intelligence agency scandal and law breaking. All our eggs in one basket is probably not too smart. A bit of an out for people.
As far as a LTC projection. If there are 2X as many LTC's as bitcoins (for the next 5-10 years or so, depending on adoption, some increase in LTC integration following BTC, etc.), then I can imagine that LTC can be anywhere from $5-$30 or so over the next year or so (With BTC between say $100 and $300 - just a somewhat educated guess - hard to know). And it is hard to really make a prediction much beyond a few months anyway. As we really are in the eye of the hurricane with these cryptocurrencies. We are sitting relatively close to the even horizon, and we just can't see past it of course. Cryptocurrencies can potentially have HUGE effects on how we do money in the future. And that affects Governments, Institutions, People, etc. And the synergy between the internet, cryptocurrencies, raising awareness in people, etc. The changing, adding, etc. of these "variables" can have dramatic effects. Do not lose sight of the enormity that we are "sitting" on.
At this point, I think putting a small to low percentage of your BTC into LTC and/or other cryptocurrencies is both a nice hedge and investment to make.
IAS
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