>>> Note: This post is for entertainment purposes only. It is not intended to be a complete portfolio solution.Hope you don't mind me sharing this in the bitcoin forums. I've traded stocks/commodities/futures most of my life, and often asked where I believe the price of stocks/gold/bitcoin are headed. I'll always have an opinion and love to talk markets, but making money involves strategies, and managing those strategies.
Here is one. I applied this strategy to the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the last
90 years (April 1923 - April 2013). 12 trades a year, each one enters the market (long) with $100,000 and held for a week or so. The results:
Number of trades: 1058
Average trade net profit: $636 (0.636%)
Winning trades: 666 (62.95%)Overall, you are in the market 37% of the time, flat the other 63%. The 90 year performance:
Skeptical? Here is the opposite strategy. 12 trades a year, you are long the market the 63% of the time, but flat 37%.
Number of trades: 1058
Average trade net profit: -$0.15 (-0.00%)
Winning trades: 567 (53.59%)Here is the chart of the 90 year performance:
The super complex strategy:
Buy stocks on the 27th of the month, sell stocks on the 8th. The coded strategy gets in on the first trading day after the 26th, and out after the 7th.
as coded in Tradestation Easy Language:
buyx=100000/close;
If dayofmonth(date)>26 then buy buyx contracts today on the close;
If dayofmonth(date)>7 and dayofmonth(date)<20 then sell today on the close;
A 0.636% 12 times a year is
7.9% annualized, while only being in the market
1/3 of the time. Conversely, the Dow Jones has risen from 101.1 to 14865.14 in those 90 years, or 5.7%.
You could tinker with the strategy. Adjust position size based on volatility, add stops, etc. Thanks for reading, happy trading.
As always, past performance does not guarantee future results!
