What is the maximum price in the next 12-18 mo?

[pooya87]

there is no maximum price for bitcoin.
there are 21 million coins and 7.5 billion people around to invest in it. if we assume a small percentage of that 7.5 billion are adults and have money to invest that is still a large number that is creating a massive "potential" demand and that can make the price to levels that we can not even start to fathom right now.

[1Referee]

It's pointless to look back at how the price has gone up from 2 figure levels, to 4 figure levels. Back then the market was significantly smaller than is the case right now, where we also had way less coins in circulation. I much rather see people post conservative opinions than overly exaggerated predictions that barely have any chances of actually happening. If I (realistically) have to throw a prediction on the table as being my target within your given time frame, then I'd say anywhere between $1500-$2000 as peak. But it all depends on how things go regarding the block size increase. It's no surprise that this will be a factor that can heavily make or break the price in the coming year(s).

[Biodom]

It's pointless to look back at how the price has gone up from 2 figure levels, to 4 figure levels. Back then the market was significantly smaller than is the case right now, where we also had way less coins in circulation. I much rather see people post conservative opinions than overly exaggerated predictions that barely have any chances of actually happening. If I (realistically) have to throw a prediction on the table as being my target within your given time frame, then I'd say anywhere between $1500-$2000 as peak. But it all depends on how things go regarding the block size increase. It's no surprise that this will be a factor that can heavily make or break the price in the coming year(s).

Au contraire, I find it rather pointless to repeat the 1200-1500 numbers that everybody else does.
The point of my post was to establish the upper bound, NOT talk about the most likely scenario, hence the title of the tread instead of "what is the most likely price range in 2017".
I gave 25K a very small probability and outlined the scenarios.
If you think that it will be 1500, there is basically nothing to discuss, because almost EVERYBODY thinks the same.
If you have said $300 or $10000, then there is a point to a discussion, IMHO.

[European Central Bank]

Therefore, if bitcoin matches what it did before either by performing super-exponentially sometime this year or matching yearly maximum appreciation, the upper boundary would be 25-87K/bitcoin.

that requires money and lots and lots of it. it don't happen in a vacuum. all of the prices that've been achieved until now were possible with a small number of people.

i don't know what it would take to get a very large number of people on board but i can't see much on the horizon right now.

we need to forget about previous movements and think practically. in theory it might be easier, once there's some momentum it's gonna pick up. but i dunno how we get real momentum going.

[darkangel11]

there is no maximum price for bitcoin.
there are 21 million coins and 7.5 billion people around to invest in it. if we assume a small percentage of that 7.5 billion are adults and have money to invest that is still a large number that is creating a massive "potential" demand and that can make the price to levels that we can not even start to fathom right now.

There is a maximum. OP said that it's the maximum for the next 12-18 months, so there is a boundary in this limited period of time.
I predict it will be somewhere below $2000. Historically Bitcoin had maximum of 2 large pumps per year and we have reached the moment where a coin is worth a very large amount of money ($1000). This for most people is somewhere close to their monthly wage (or already above it), so it will be extremely difficult to create enough buying pressure to make the price double in a year. It was possible at $200 or $500, but we are talking about some really high prices.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

3. Some central bank decides to accumulate bitcoin and news of this leaks. Maybe 2% probability, difficult to estimate. This parameter alone would be sufficient.

A related question: assume that some central bank somewhere decides to accumulate bitcoin.

They're not going to do that for any reason I can see.  Plus bitcoin would have to be at something like $10,000 before there'd be enough to go around.

As per OP, I'm guessing $1200-1500 and I'd be totally fine with that.  Bubbles pop, and if we go too high too fast, that's exactly what this is going to end up being.

[BTCtrader71]

we have reached the moment where a coin is worth a very large amount of money ($1000). This for most people is somewhere close to their monthly wage (or already above it), so it will be extremely difficult to create enough buying pressure to make the price double in a year. It was possible at $200 or $500, but we are talking about some really high prices.

one kg of gold costs about $39,500
one satoshi costs about $0.00001

Put it that way, satoshis sound pretty cheap ... get 'em while they're hot!

Most people "think" in terms of 1 bitcoin or 1 oz of a metal as being the default unit, but there's no rule that those have to be the default units. Some people understand that, some just don't. Bitcoinity.org has already switched from BTC to mBTC. One mBTC is about $1 ... pretty cheap!

[Slark]

1. ETF has to be approved. 30% chance, in my opinion.
2. Significant indication of a currency crisis somewhere. Probability unknown, maybe 10%. So 1+2 together =3% chance
3. Some central bank decides to accumulate bitcoin and news of this leaks. Maybe 2% probability, difficult to estimate. This parameter alone would be sufficient.

1. Definitely the biggest argument from your list. ETF has potential to push bitcoin's price to new limit.
It is more than likely that ETF could attract $300 million in assets in its first week
and a fact that bitcoin is utilized by fully legalized fund would likely give the price of bitcoin additional momentum.

2. Always a possibility, the problem is that we usually don't see economic collapse until it hit us in the face.

3. I don't believe in this, if central banks hoard bitcoin they won't share this info with general public.