2013 Puts for $50 strike

[rpietila]

I put this onto speculation, as the organized offering of such instruments is forbidden for me. I can only privately bet against my friends, and private means "PM".

Anyway, I think the widely traded $50 OTC put would hit the sweet spot for many of the readers:

- With maturity of all of 2013, it essentially hedges the total market failure risk of Bitcoin. Dipping to $50 after staying the whole 2013 above it, is not a likely event in this market climate.
- No differential betting, the exerciser of the option needs to have the bitcoins to sell, if he wants to profit. Free resale of the option OK.
- In the event of a total wipeout of the protocol, it would return the whole $50 to its holder, even if he cannot complete the sale of the bitcoins in the destroyed protocol.

Somebody willing to write or buy and at what price. Just speculate

[fabrizziop]

I put this onto speculation, as the organized offering of such instruments is forbidden for me. I can only privately bet against my friends, and private means "PM".

Anyway, I think the widely traded $50 OTC put would hit the sweet spot for many of the readers:

- With maturity of all of 2013, it essentially hedges the total market failure risk of Bitcoin. Dipping to $50 after staying the whole 2013 above it, is not a likely event in this market climate.
- No differential betting, the exerciser of the option needs to have the bitcoins to sell, if he wants to profit. Free resale of the option OK.
- In the event of a total wipeout of the protocol, it would return the whole $50 to its holder, even if he cannot complete the sale of the bitcoins in the destroyed protocol.

Somebody willing to write or buy and at what price. Just speculate

To be honest, Bitcoins only went over 50$ on 18-20 MAR 2013, so it could be a bit higher risk to you.
Any guess on the price?. I could be interested, to secure my future mining income.

[rpietila]

To be honest, Bitcoins only went over 50$ on 18-20 MAR 2013, so it could be a bit higher risk to you.
Any guess on the price?. I could be interested, to secure my future mining income.

What I see many people doing, is that they only now wake up to the fact that bitcoin CAN go to zero (although not because of selling pressure..) and their average entry point is sub-$10. As a consequence, they sell a good percentage of their coins to recoup their investment "as long as they are on the black".

This deepens the crash and causes more panic selling. Many would sleep better by buying these puts to the value of their original investment. They would only need to sell a fraction of the amount that they are selling now, to pay the premium. Thus the selling pressure would abate, making the puts' value go to zero. Everyone is happy, especially the writer of the puts.

How much? 

[ElectricMucus]

Thrown away all your money yet?

[TTBit]

At $66 here with 259 days to expiration and a 10% daily volatility, I'd quote the price of a $50 put at ~$21. (But 10% seems low, I'm not selling at $21)

BTW, that puts a call price at ~$38.

[rpietila]

Thrown away all your money yet?

My problem is that my trading emporium makes more every day, and currently bitcoin is the major beneficiary of this new money.

Sell all your coin at $80 now, 60% in 8 hours is unsustainable.

[ElectricMucus]

Thrown away all your money yet?

My problem is that my trading emporium makes more every day, and currently bitcoin is the major beneficiary of this new money.

Sell all your coin at $80 now, 60% in 8 hours is unsustainable.

I won't bother with manual trading any more.

[rpietila]

I won't bother with manual trading any more.

I can't bother with automatic trading. It's a matter of position size, coupled with other factors.

Btw. anybody still interested in these floor puts?? Or did the scare go away just because I said it should..