Avalon Receiving Address Analysis. Batch #2 Units sold, and when.

[CrazyGuy]

Avalon Receiving Address Analysis - 18QRSo26TqPZtH1guLfwNXZ2EfZpe7y8Ks

I have my Batch#2 pre-order listed in goods and I wanted to get an estimate of where I was in line. Looking at the address that received my payment from Walletbit, I came up with a rough estimate of anywhere from 64 to 235 units ahead of me. So I decided to go ahead and analyze all payments to this address and found some interesting data...

We can assume Avalon either sold a majority of the units outside of Walletbit, or there were multiple addresses used(163 sold at this address vs 600 Avalon says they sold) Perhaps there was a different address for the fractional payments in the first couple days that were paid in full at a later date? If you paid someone other than Walletbit, or the Avalon receiving address is not "18QRSo26TqPZtH1guLfwNXZ2EfZpe7y8Ks", give me the address and I'll add the data.



Details of my analysis:

Avalon Address receiving Walletbit Payments:
18QRSo26TqPZtH1guLfwNXZ2EfZpe7y8Ks
This address appears to have received a total of 163 Avalon orders, with daily estimates adjusted for historic value.


Daily unit volume at Avalon's payment address:
____________________________
|     Date     |  Units Paid For  |  
____________________________
|  02/02/13   |    35                 |
-------------------------------------
|  02/03/13   |    29                 |
-------------------------------------
|  02/10/13   |     1                  |
-------------------------------------
|  02/11/13   |     1                  |
-------------------------------------
|  02/17/13   |     5                  |
-------------------------------------
|  02/18/13   |    79                 |
-------------------------------------
|  02/19/13   |     1                  |
-------------------------------------
|  02/20/13   |     2                  |
-------------------------------------
|  02/22/13   |     6                  |
-------------------------------------
|  02/25/13   |     2                  |
-------------------------------------
|  03/06/13   |     1                  |
-------------------------------------
|  03/09/13   |     1                  |
____________________________
|  Days: 12  |    Sold: 163        |    
____________________________
Note: 3 from the 3rd appear to have been paid for in full on the 18th.  Also, I've ignored all fractional payments and withdrawals, even though some look like refunds...

Other interesting sidenotes...

• Number of units sold on the 18th of February is almost as much as the number of units sold on all other days combined.
• Before the 18th, you could not order more than 3 units at once. This restriction appears to have been lifted on the 18th with an order of 5 and 10 units going through on that day
• Avalon has a no-refund policy, but some withdrawals do appear to be refunds. This data was not counted in my totals.

[fpgaminer]

If you paid someone other than Walletbit, or the Avalon receiving address is not "18QRSo26TqPZtH1guLfwNXZ2EfZpe7y8Ks", give me the address and I'll add the data.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140716.0

[CrazyGuy]

I looked through a couple of those and it appears they posted their transaction to Walletbit. You can follow the transaction as it is consolidated into larger walletbit wallets, then to what I believe is one of Walletbit's cold wallet addresses http://blockchain.info/address/1BadjLJqb2CB73t3ZJ296xrwhHNhyo5JaU

The important transaction is the one from Walletbit to Avalon, which may be hard to extract from the original transaction. That is, unless you created a walletbit account. You can get the receiving account from the details of your transaction on your walletbit dashboard(you may be able to do this with a guest account payment as well, I'm not sure...)

For example, here is my transaction with walletbit, when I first tried to order the Avalon on the 3rd.
CrazyBlane --> Walletbit

And here's the transaction from my walletbit account to Avalon when I was actually able to get an order through 7 days later.
Walletbit --> Avalon

Perhaps the second address was only used for payments from walletbit accounts(163 total) and there is another address that received payment for the remaining 437 units?

[CrazyGuy]

Yours was a bit different fpgaminer, along with a few of the other transactions grouped into a 7000 payment to a temporary address
http://blockchain.info/address/15Vy5wtdSbThaFByrzFhMc9ZKC69TmcVwp
All of these inputs appear to be Avalon purchases, but they may already be accounted for at the address I listed in the original post.

I followed that temp transaction to what I thought was perhaps an Avalon address:
http://blockchain.info/address/1AB2pgzv4yZQWp1ZS5Vb8sHWGHbuXwh2An

Alas, that account makes a deposit to Walletbit's cold wallet on the 6th of feb, so dead end there
http://blockchain.info/tx/c48242a3bb595d43afeafb80e0e79ddfe6ef8afb5f0d1aa7864e1e7bd5e373f5

Kind of fun digging through the blockchain though...