My take - long term levels

[WackyWilly]

Hi all,

Though some might like to be bashing the OP    here's a chart that I keep long term.

NO - I do NOT know where the market will be.
YES - I just look at what the market is telling me.
Right now, short term, I am wary of the market (see my post at http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=197014.0

This is for informational purposes. A weekly chart with technical analysis. Logarithmic scale.
Do with it, as you like. You're  a free person   Just don't blame me for posting, should things go "really bad". (But what is bad?  )

I am watching those weekly levels (these are the values of the green upward sloping intermediate trend line).
Everything I want to remark is noted in the chart, just notice how stuff converges, also with the recent $79 level !!).
Based on this weekly chart, my best "guess" at this moment would be a re-test of $80. THAT will be the main level to check upon. To see whether the intermediate trend line will break, after we've already seen a negative RSI-crossing (which, beware, just by itself does not mean the sky will fall...)

SHOULD the support levels break, then brace yourselves, as we may be heading all the way down to $30 per BTC. (All the way down to the yellow upward sloping long term trendline)
SHOULD the support levels hold, however, then we're in for (far?) more price appreciation.

Keep looking what the market is telling you at those levels. That's basically my point.

http://imageshack.us/a/img560/8396/ltchart752013.png

[RationalSpeculator]

Great post, thanks!

One thing I'm not sure about is the selling of all your coins. Since you recognize a black swan event can launch bitcoin into the stratosphere, never to come back to current levels, that would mean you are kept out.

You say that you will rebuy, even at higher prices, if that would happen. But when you decide to rebuy, the market can soon after go down again. Sure you would exit again but you would take another small loss. Many small loses also add up to a big one.

Just seems very risky to me to be all-in as well as all-out. Even if risk/reward is very poor. But I might miss something?

[Jaques]

+1

[michaelGedi]

thanks for post

[WackyWilly]

Great post, thanks!

One thing I'm not sure about is the selling of all your coins. Since you recognize a black swan event can launch bitcoin into the stratosphere, never to come back to current levels, that would mean you are kept out.

You are welcome.

And well, I don't think I would be kept out - I'd just need to re-enter the market at a higher price. By that time I could be banging my head, but instead of doing so    I should by then recognize that my risk/reward trade-off would be much more favorable.

You say that you will rebuy, even at higher prices, if that would happen. But when you decide to rebuy, the market can soon after go down again. Sure you would exit again but you would take another small loss. Many small loses also add up to a big one.
Just seems very risky to me to be all-in as well as all-out. Even if risk/reward is very poor. But I might miss something?

You are not missing anything. You are right that I might end up at the wrong side of the stick. However, for that very reason -to avoid such a mess- I am closely looking at lower time frames (see also my update on https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=197014.40 ) to avoid getting into such a situation.

But in the end you're right - 100% guarantee on this I cannot give myself, so I shouldn't be expecting it from the market either.
Entering again at a far lower BTC price, though, is what I still expect I will be able to do.

[smoothie]

Looking at the long-term isn't a bad idea.

Price could drop some over time. But all BULL/BEAR BS aside, this was a fair assessment with your chart and the analysis.

Well done.

[wamatt]

One issue I have with "going back to $30" crowd. Is that it's based off extrapolations about a rate of USD influx prior to the bubble.

IOW, the bubble bought an increased level of new entrants and money into the system. So surely it's not correct to extrapolate pre-bubble valuations?

[ThatDGuy]

One issue I have with "going back to $30" crowd. Is that it's based off extrapolations about a rate of USD influx prior to the bubble.

IOW, the bubble bought an increased level of new entrants and money into the system. So surely it's not correct to extrapolate pre-bubble valuations?

The new entrants and money are also potentially very weak hands.  While some might have stayed on board and realize potential there are plenty who might have gambled with a bit more than they should have, or just wanted to cut their losses completely.  Personally I don't see it getting that low, and if it did, it wouldn't level out there - probably go back up to $50-$60 after that dip.

[smoothie]

Yeah I think we have not seen the bottom yet.

Even as a bull I know this is true (in my gut).

Would not surprise me to see a low equal to $50 or lower than $50 from now until the end of September.

There you have it folks. Smoothie has spoken. lol

If I am utterly wrong then the profits that I have taken, are all gravy. And no I am not out of bitcoins by far.