IMO, Russia should not get involved in Venezuela. Maduro is very unpopular right now, mostly as a result of his own blunders. Supporting Maduro in any kind would make Russia unpopular with the general population.
Should Maduro be voted out in the referendum, the law on referendums passed under the government of Hugo Chavez in 2002 establishes two scenarios for what would happen next. If the referendum takes place this year, as the opposition-controlled National Assembly wants, the country will hold early elections. If it takes place after Jan. 10, 2017, when Maduro will have exactly two years left on his term, he will be replaced by the current vice president, Aristobulo Isturiz, who would lead the country until the elections already scheduled for 2019.
This system poses a serious dilemma for both the opposition and the government. If the government draws out the referendum preparations, Chavismo will continue to dominate Venezuela. However, if Isturiz — who is considered just as incompetent and unpopular as Maduro — comes to power, this could provoke further social unrest in the country, where the population has been driven to desperation by chronic food shortages, poor health services and inflation projected to reach 480 percent by the end of the year.
