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惠誉评级:中国银行业面临企业杠杆上升风险
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Topic: 惠誉评级:中国银行业面临企业杠杆上升风险 (Read 140 times)
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惠誉评级:中国银行业面临企业杠杆上升风险
April 21, 2017, 10:58:56 AM
#1
腾讯财经 作者 张琴
4月21日,在由惠誉评级主办的“中国信用论坛”上,惠誉评级联席董事袁牧提到,实际上升的企业部门的杠杆率是中国银行业面临的关键的风险。
目前中国信贷的增速已经有数年超过经济增速。惠誉内部计算,截至2016年底,中国信贷的社会总量已经高达GDP的258%,预测到2017年年底将再高出14个百分点。
信贷增长的影响在于,每个单元的新增贷款都能创造GDP增长。但是从2009年到现在,随着总的信贷规模的增速,信贷拉动经济增长的边际效应有所降低。
就整个银行系统的资产负债来看,尽管中国目前总体存款水平仍高于信贷的余额,但银行面临的融资和流动性的缓冲空间在渐渐收窄。
袁牧认为,当前银行系统中的流动资金,增加的部分主要并非来自于传统的存款,而更多的是第三方存款、银行间拆借和商业票据等。这些都是更不稳定、更短期的一些资金链。
他提到一组数字,截至2016年底,中国的中小型银行有三分之一以上资金都是来自非存款资金,它的增长主要是来自于同业资金。但相比之下,四大行的非存款资金的占比则为10%左右,相对较低。
就目前来看,很多银行都将同业资金与短期资金做长期的借出,这会加大资产和负债期限的错配,增加资金面中断的风险,在使银行本身的流动性增加的同时,增加系统性的风险。
这样做的另一个影响在于,同业资金的增加,使得系统间的相互关联更加紧密。一旦市场产生极端的负面消息,银行有可能需要从同业抽回资金,来满足它自己的资金需求。
就资产端而言,近几年的银行和影子银行体系之间的相互关联度也有所提升。从贷出款比例来看,中小规模的银行和影子银行体系的相互关联最大。这些银行很积极地投资于一些影子银行产品,包括其他银行的理财产品和非银行机构出的一些信托受益权。
同时,一些中小银行也热衷于在表外也发行理财产品,一些银行的理财产品余额已经到达存款的一半左右。
“银行在计算资本充足率时,并不会考虑表外风险,所以不断上升的表外风险成本可能会掩盖了部分的资本消耗。”袁牧认为,这为计算中国银行系统真实的不良率增加了难度。
在袁牧看来,近期央行对于银行表外和委外的业务的严格监管,将压制快速增长的影子银行业。
但是,非贷款银行的需求依旧存在,预计影子银行的规模不一定会下降,而只是会转移到其他的领域。比如自2016年第三季度开始,可以看到信托贷款已经有一个比较明显的提升。
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