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美学者以夜间灯光数据“看涨”中国经济
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Topic: 美学者以夜间灯光数据“看涨”中国经济 (Read 125 times)
Stephaigo
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美学者以夜间灯光数据“看涨”中国经济
May 02, 2017, 05:36:35 AM
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你看灯光,我看门道。近日,3位美国经济学家采用一种“另辟蹊径”的指标分析后称:中国经济正呈现出比常规官方统计更高速度的稳定增长。
他们认为,夜间灯光与经济活动水平及增长速度之间,存在非常有力的对应关系。在对全球夜间灯光数据进行深度分析的过程中,他们依靠卫星记录下的中国夜间灯光亮度,与铁路货运量、耗电量等宏观数据一起建立模型,从而得出上述“看涨”中国的结论。
研究者指出,这可能与官方统计低估服务业尤其是各类新业态的增速有关。事实上,近年来在中国政府力推的简政放权和商事制度改革,以及大众创业万众创新的强有力带动下,中国服务业正呈现出爆发式的增长。
在2017年的《政府工作报告》中,李克强总理“点明”:消费在经济增长中发挥主要拉动作用,服务业增加值占国内生产总值比重在2016年上升到51.6%。
而根据最新公布的一季度宏观经济数据,一季度消费对经济增长的贡献率升至77.2%、服务业占GDP比重达到56.5%。与之相对应的是一季度GDP增速达到6.9%,实现了连续第二个季度增速增长。
彭博社对此评论道:在消费的带动下,中国经济实现了惊人表现,连续第二个季度加速扩张。消费者正在帮助中国经济打破对投资拉动增长的依赖。《纽约时报》则分析称,一季度中国经济增长的一个重要原因是工厂出现了强劲扩张,经济学家们尤其对3月份7.6%的工业增加值增长感到惊讶,这意味着中国的工厂处于繁忙状态。
这些外部观察无疑印证了李克强对中国经济的这一判断:“新兴产业蓬勃兴起,传统产业加快转型升级,新动能正在撑起发展新天地。”
美国《福布斯》杂志指出,中国一季度GDP增速超出预期,表明“中国奇迹”没有结束,而是进入了“第二阶段”。
该杂志分析认为,中国的“超级消费者”、科技创新、高端制造和服务业,将成为第二阶段经济奇迹的四大支柱。
这些要素,正是李克强格外看重的“新旧动能转换”的重要支撑。而中国依托新旧动能转换所实现的强劲增长,也照亮了全球经济增长的前景。路透社称,中国经济数据向好将有效缓解全球投资者对世界经济不稳定的担忧,对动荡的全球资本市场起到稳定作用。
来自咨询公司科尔尼的报告称,对全球300家营收超过5亿美元的公司调研显示,2017年受访企业对中国经济的前景乐观比例明显升高。在外商直接投资信心指数排行榜上,中国名列前茅。
国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示,考虑到中国一季度系列经济数据强劲超出预期,特别是GDP同比增长6.9%,IMF已将今年中国经济增长预期从1月份的6.5%上调至6.6%,预计几个月后很可能进一步上调中国今年经济增长预期。
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