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虽遭制裁数十年 朝鲜经济意外展现活力
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Topic: 虽遭制裁数十年 朝鲜经济意外展现活力 (Read 166 times)
Deniselly
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虽遭制裁数十年 朝鲜经济意外展现活力
May 03, 2017, 11:48:49 AM
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《纽约时报》周日报道,自朝鲜最高领导人金正恩五年前掌政至今,全国各大城市里商场开始涌现,在朝鲜执政党的保护之下,一个商人与企业家阶级正在崛起。首都平壤不仅在大兴土木,原本空荡荡的街道如今车辆多了起来,民众靠洗车也能维持生计。
经济或支撑核武开发
报道说,虽然目前没有足够的可靠经济数据来证明这些,不过脱北者、到朝鲜的游客和研究朝鲜的经济学者最近都表示,方兴未艾的市场力量正在逐渐使朝鲜改头换面。
这样的发展趋势对于国际社会来说,意味着今后要制止金正恩继续开发核子武器,恐怕将难上加难。因为经济力量将支持朝鲜政权,使它更有能力抵御外界的压力,以及为其核武计划提供所需的资金。
《纽约时报》说,金正恩在2013年决心发展核武的同时,也把经济成长列为首要施政目标。如今,朝鲜的年经济增长估计介于1%至5%,足以媲美其他没有受制于经济制裁的经济体。金正恩曾向人民表示,他们再也不用“缩紧腰带”了。
不过,经济快速发展是双刃刀,有迹象显示,市场力量也正在削弱朝鲜政府对人民的掌控。外国货品大量涌入,也带来大量的资讯,逐渐削弱民众对金正恩及其家族的个人崇拜。随着越来越多人能自给自足,对国家的依靠减弱,对政权的离心力自然就加大了。
在2014年逃离朝鲜的脱北者金真熙(化名)对《纽约时报》说:“我们对政府的态度是这样的:如果你不能喂饱我们,就不要管我们,让我们透过市场谋生。”她回想起2009年政府曾经尝试钳制市场经济时说:“当时,我对朝鲜政权那一丁点的效忠也荡然无存了。”
金真熙经历过上世纪90年代的大饥荒,据知那次饥荒饿死多达200万人。她说,当时家乡茂山郡地方政府停止分配粮食,她跑到市集做买卖,才活了下来。她说,她在三年前逃离朝鲜时,家乡市集上的摊贩有1000多档。
在金正恩父亲金正日时代,对市集的存在时而放任,时而打压。自2010年起,获得官方批准的市集倍增至440个,卫星图像显示在多数城市,这类市集增加很快。首尔的韩国国家统一研究所的研究显示,朝鲜人口约2500万,其中约110万人目前在官方市集中干活,而非官方的市集也很活跃。
韩国国家情报院院长李炳浩今年2月在国会闭门汇报会上曾指出,估计朝鲜人口中至少四成目前在搞私企活动,这个比率与匈牙利和波兰的情况相当。据脱北者反映,朝鲜经济体制僵化,如果不透过市集做点买卖就很可能饿死。估计现在朝鲜市集售卖的物品八成来自中国。
维也纳大学经济学家弗兰克专门研究朝鲜经济,最近到过平壤的他说平壤的消费市场活跃。据他观察:“到处都有竞争,连旅行社、德士公司和餐馆彼此之间也在竞争。”
私企活动是官方主要收入
有迹象显示,朝鲜政府越来越依赖私企。韩国统一教育研究所研究员车文硕估计,朝鲜政府每天从官方市集征收的费用就多达22万美元(约30万新元),这说明私企活动是官方一大重要收入来源。
随着市场经济的发展,朝鲜人从所接触到的外国产品看到朝鲜的落后。创立朝鲜人权组织“无锁链”(No Chain)的脱北者郑光日说:“朝鲜人民总是称呼金正恩的祖父和父亲为‘伟大的领袖’或‘将军’,现在他们私下谈话时,很多人把金正恩叫做‘那小子’。他们怕他,但不尊重他。……他们说,他为我们做了些什么?”
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