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英国3个月遭3次严重恐袭,专家:袭击方式常态化致难监控
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英国3个月遭3次严重恐袭,专家:袭击方式常态化致难监控
June 05, 2017, 03:59:53 PM
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当地时间6月3日晚,伦敦市中心的伦敦桥发生汽车撞人事件,随后,其附近的博罗市场(Borough Market)以及沃克斯豪尔(Vauxhall)地区也相继报告了伤人事件。目前,前两起事件已被伦敦警方定性为恐怖袭击。这也是继议会大厦开车撞人、拿刀刺死安保人员、曼彻斯特体育场爆炸事件后,英国在不到3个月的时间内发生的第3起大型袭击事件。
对此,中国现代国际关系研究院安全与军控研究所所长傅小强向记者)分析道,从现在袭击频率来看,伦敦遭遇的恐怖威胁情况比较严峻,恐怖分子经过潜伏或是极端组织的动员、策划,将伦敦这个在西方世界有标志意义的地方作为袭击的目标,英国的袭击威胁显得难以控制。
但一位不愿透露姓名的英国前反恐情报人员则向记者)表示,相对于英国所面临的威胁和实际发生的袭击情况来讲,“英国的反恐工作是有比较好的传统的,也做得不错。”但是,英国现在发生的袭击以开车撞人、拿刀捅人的形式居多,这种常态化的袭击方式“任何人都可以操作,不像制造炸弹那样,需要获取材料,也需要相对长的时间来准备,因此,相比而言会更难监控”。
从袭击发生的地点来看,傅小强表示,这次是在伦敦桥附近,上次(3月22日)是在英国议会大厦附近,“选择这种地标式的地点,对英国民众的冲击力是比较大的。恐怖分子的袭击并非针对一个目标不放,比如曼彻斯特的恐袭发生在演唱会现场。恐怖分子选择目标最重要的目的是制造最大的轰动效应,或是明确地标,死伤情况可能不会很严重,但给民众心理带来的冲击比较大;第二是人口集中的地方,造成群死群伤的情况,也会带来很大的冲击力。”
在2005年伦敦地铁和公交自杀式爆炸袭击发生后,英国反恐体系整体比较成功,但面临新的情况,英国的反恐体系尚未迅速跟上新的威胁以致出现了漏洞,比如社交网络为恐怖分子提供了网络招募的新渠道,反控形势呈现出“道高一尺、魔高一丈”的螺旋式发展趋势,目前针对这些还没有完善有效的应对办法。傅小强补充道,常态化袭击对人们安全感和人们出行、生活方式都会造成影响,但如果得到了有效预防,人们生活又会回归常态。
除了对于英国人生活方式与心态的影响,6月8日,英国即将迎来新一轮大选,在此前夕,在英国首都中心区域发生了大规模恐袭,对选举的影响无可避免。“首相梅的处理措施会为保守党加分,而且伦敦市长是工党议员,在其任下几个月多起恐袭,他要承担责任,这会不利于工党在竞选中的形象。预计保守党可能会在大选中获胜,保守党一直强调捍卫英国的价值体系和生活方式,在国际上领先打击恐怖主义。”上海外国语大学英国研究中心助理研究员李冠杰分析称,保守党获胜后如果实施硬脱欧,也有可能降低恐怖分子通过欧盟潜入英国的几率。
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