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前白宫经济顾问委员会主席:特朗普政府缺乏训练有素经济学家
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Topic: 前白宫经济顾问委员会主席:特朗普政府缺乏训练有素经济学家 (Read 90 times)
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前白宫经济顾问委员会主席:特朗普政府缺乏训练有素经济学家
June 05, 2017, 05:09:15 PM
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美国前白宫经济顾问委员会主席、彼得森国际经济研究所资深研究员贾森·弗曼日前接受新华社记者专访时表示,特朗普政府最近公布的新财年联邦政府预算报告不切实际,由于缺乏跨党派合作,税改推进困难,市场对特朗普经济政策的乐观情绪已有所降温。
根据白宫日前公布的2018财年(2017年10月1日至2018年9月30日)联邦政府预算报告,特朗普政府将在十年内大幅削减社会福利与非国防开支,推动经济实现3%的增长,实现政府收支平衡。弗曼说,特朗普政府的新财年预算在经济增长预测和政策提议方面都不切实际。
弗曼认为,随着美国人口老龄化、劳动力和劳动生产率增长放缓,美国长期经济增速将保持在2%左右的水平,不大可能达到3%以上。特朗普政府采用高于经济学家主流预期1个百分点的经济增速来预测未来十年美国政府预算状况是非常不严谨的。
弗曼指出,跨党派的经济学家也都认为特朗普政府重复计算了提振美国经济增长带来的约2万亿美元财政收入,将其同时用于弥补减税造成的财政收入损失和减少预算赤字。他认为,这种重复计算的做法和过于乐观的经济预测反映出特朗普政府缺乏训练有素的经济学家。
在弗曼看来,美国并不需要平衡预算,而只要确保美国政府债务占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重保持下降,同时联邦财政赤字占GDP的比例低于3%。他认为,实现这一政策目标的最好方式是减支增收,即重点通过福利改革来缩减开支,同时主要对高收入家庭征税来增加收入。
但特朗普政府却提议对所有人群大规模减税,其中富人阶层为主要受益者。一些机构预计这可能造成未来十年美国财政收入损失约5.5万亿美元,将令美国财政赤字和政府债务进一步上升。
弗曼指出,目前特朗普希望推动大规模减税,众议院共和党则希望推动对美国财政收入影响为中性的税改,他认为美国国会最终更可能会就减税而非实质性的税改达成一致。他强调,除非特朗普政府愿意在税改议题上与民主党展开合作,否则美国国会今年不大可能通过任何税改法案。
弗曼表示,美国完成上一次大规模税改的重要经验之一就是税改必须采取跨党派合作,同时从严肃的政策方案开始讨论。他说,当时里根政府提出了上千页的详细税改方案,国会两党合作对此商讨了相当长的时间,现在也应该采用同样的方式推动税改。
鉴于特朗普执政后的政策立场与竞选时期的言论有很大差异,一些政策尚未完全成形,弗曼认为现在很难讲清楚“特朗普经济学”的内涵。他表示,“特朗普经济学”似乎是将减税、放松监管等传统共和党经济主张与限制移民、限制贸易和不改革福利项目等民粹主义主张拼凑到一起。
弗曼指出,“特朗普经济学”内部存在相互矛盾,最近金融市场对特朗普利好经济政策的乐观情绪已有所降温。他表示,特朗普希望美元走弱、促进出口和减少贸易逆差,但他提议的许多政策却会令美元走强和贸易逆差扩大。
弗曼认为,短期内特朗普政府的贸易政策不会发生重大变化。但他担心,如果未来两三年美国贸易逆差继续扩大,特朗普政府可能会迫于政治压力采取更加强硬的贸易政策立场。
(原标题:专访:市场对特朗普经济政策乐观情绪有所降温——访前白宫经济顾问委员会主席贾森·弗曼)
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