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俄称巴格达迪身亡或致IS管理崩溃:叙军迎天赐良机
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Goldfarb012
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俄称巴格达迪身亡或致IS管理崩溃:叙军迎天赐良机
July 11, 2017, 03:25:12 AM
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俄罗斯《消息报》网站6月16日报道称,包括首领阿布·贝克尔·巴格达迪在内的“伊斯兰国”(IS)所有军事高层在俄罗斯空天军的打击中被消灭。至少,俄国防部发表了这种声明,虽然有所保留地表示,“正在通过各种渠道进行核实”。
争议在于,恐怖组织有多依赖领导人个人。一个问题从争议中应运而生,基于消灭首领和基本意识形态的战术效果如何。
有观点认为,建筑在宗教狂热基础上的组织并不过分依赖某个个人,所谓的伞状恐怖组织也如此。一个人的号召力和狂热迟早被另一个人取代,且往往更可怕怪异,届时战争就会升级。另一种观点则截然相反:领袖魅力和“伞状”结构极其依赖领导层,因为没有这些人,谁还了解整个结构的“分支”并给出令人振奋的构想,军事或恐怖主义机器井然有序的工作将崩塌。
这两个论题的问题在于,两者都追求通用性。而真相取决于诸多当地情况。消灭车臣领导人焦哈尔·杜达耶夫似乎很能说明问题,接连歼灭对解决问题并没无强有力的帮助。只有吸引有影响力的人物站在联邦当局一边的大规模行动才能消灭病原体。
以色列数十年来在巴基斯坦追捕重要恐怖分子,但这从未带来纯粹的军事成果——只有宣传效果。
相反,在南非种族隔离时期,捕获非洲人国民大会整个领导层的一次性行动消除了15年的国内武装暴力。
巴格达迪曾被关押的地方并非著名的阿布格里卜监狱,而是伊拉克的“布卡营”。一位曾担任纽约警察的看守记住了巴格达迪,他在出狱时对看守说:“纽约见。”
然而这并不意味着正是坐牢令寡言而温顺的人变成了现代历史上最惨无人道的恐怖组织的“哈里发”和宣扬者。
巴格达迪曾肯定地说,他是先知的直系后代。对此并无确凿证据,但这种出身似乎自动合法化了他的“哈里发”政权,即他是精神领袖,而非军事领袖。而其他人——退役伊拉克军人和伊拉克阿拉伯复兴社会党人建立了IS的军事结构,但他们必须服从于“先知后裔”。
IS领导层的大部分“元老”或在美国占领时期长大,或在美军入驻伊拉克时已然成年——在政党和军队中任职。这个组织被逐步消灭或将更年轻的人推上位,而这些人除了激进圣战主义和相关生活方式外一无所知。
在俄空天军打击拉卡前,IS领导层的元老仅有两人活着。如今可能一个不剩。值得单独一提的是IS“安全局长”苏莱曼·沙瓦赫——他来自当地一个部落,这一职位是“送给”他的,以便他能积极招募贝都因青年来到IS。近期IS正是押注在功利心重且从部落中脱离出来的年轻人上,这些人在“不正确遵守伊斯兰教”的观点上与贝都因游牧人吵翻脸。
IS完全有可能在一段时间内面临管理危机。有多长——将取决于新一代领导人的自我组织水平,这些人在被包围的拉卡无处可藏,除了沙漠。不过与贝都因人的冲突堵住了这个可能,而将某个魅力型领袖从摩苏尔派到拉卡极为困难。
叙军不应放过这一机会,因为管理的崩溃很可能损害到对IS更敏感的军事系统。因此,在拉卡的战绩是巩固叙政府军近一年半以来的军事胜利的又一个天赐良机。
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