Hello folks,
I've been lurking for about two years actively, first heard about bitcoin and downloaded the client way back in late 2010, but I lost interest, got back into it in the spring of 2012.
Below is a quote from an email I sent to a friend back in October of 2012:
"To gain an understanding of bitcoin will take a few minutes of your time, but I assure you, it is well worth it, and the more you read and understand, the more excited and enthusiastic you will become.
First, to stop beating around the bush, I will take a quote from an article by Erik Voorhees, who expressed it more clearly perhaps than anybody else so far:
Bitcoin is two things: it is a digital currency unit and it is the global payment network with which one sends and receives those currency units. Both the currency unit and the payment network share the same name: Bitcoin.
Now, to grab your attention, let me point out the the current market cap (the current trading price per bitcoin in US dollars, multiplied by the number of bitcoins currently in circulation) is $117,775,290.00.
That's nearly $118 million dollars.
Furthermore, there are numerous places in NYC and many more worldwide where you can eat dinner or purchase retail goods over the counter in person and pay with Bitcoins.
I would recommend beginning with this article
http://evoorhees.blogspot.com.es/2012/04/bitcoin-libertarian-introduction.html by Erik Voorhees, then proceeding to the bitcoin wiki.
If at any point while reading the article, or looking over the wiki, you say to yourself, "but, this won't work because,"you should immediately refer to the bitcoin myths page, where I'm confident you'll find any objection you can think of has been nullified and explained with great clarity.
This represents a paradigm change, a shift in the way the world handles exchange and commerce. It is a victory for libertarians everywhere. I believe it is entirely unstoppable. Please be so kind as to forward this email to Dal and anybody else who might be interested.
Great to see you, let me know what you think!
--Henry"
On that date, they were trading at just over $10 each. Wish I'd invested.
I make posts about bitcoin almost every day. Usually people are dismissive, unconvinced, think it's a ponzi scheme, etc.
Here's a Facebook post I made a few days ago that finally got the attention of a few of my friends. Though of course I had to then calm them down a bit so they wouldn't go lose all their money to some scammers.
Let me tell you a little story that will help explain why I post about Bitcoin every day.
On December 27th, 2012, I exchanged $476.24 (USD) for 35.6455 Bitcoins (BTC). That means I spent $13.36 per Bitcoin.
If I exchanged them back to USD today they would be worth over $2000; if I had exchanged them at their peak of $233/bitcoin a couple months ago, I would have $8305 cash USD in hand.
Unfortunately, although I had the foresight to know that they would increase in value, I didn't have the self-control to hold on to those bitcoins; at the time, I was fairly knowledgeable about Bitcoin, and I knew they would rise in value over time, but I was eager to use them as currency; I spent all of them in about a week's time on a number of different products.
I didn't just have a strong gut feeling that I should invest my money in bitcoin back in december; I KNEW, I confidently could say and was willing to bet, that it would rise in value considerably over time. I didn't know just how fast it would rise, but I knew (and told many people!) that bitcoin would be worth over $100/bitcoin during the next couple years.
If I had invested in Bitcoins with every penny I could get my hands on, then sold them even at today's relatively low exchange rate, I would have around $750,000.
If I had done the same thing (invest all my money in bitcoin when I had the most cash in hand that I've had in the last few years) and then sold at the peak of $233/coin, I would be a millionare. Literally. I would have over two million dollars right now.
Today, bitcoins are trading at $75. They fluctuate daily in price. I've been watching the price fluctuate and reading every news article written about bitcoin (as well as literally thousands of forum posts) for the past two years now, especially for the last year, and with most intense interest since December of 2012 (I've checked the exchange rate daily without fail, every single day, since March 1st 2013).
I can say confidently, that I KNOW, for certain, bitcoins will be worth $1000 each within 5 to 10 years. It may be sooner, but I know it will come to pass. It is inevitable.
If you don't believe it, it's because you don't understand it. Anybody who has a full comprehension of what bitcoin is and how it works can see, with a bit of simple math, that this outcome is inevitable.
It is not a ponzi scheme. It is is not a pyramid scheme. It is not a scam.
It is the worlds new global currency, and yes, early adopters will benefit from there foresight.
It will, inevitably, completely crush the dollar, the pound, the euro, and all other fiat (government issued) currencies. They will be powerless to stop it.
If you think these words are foolish, if you think I'm wrong, if you think I'm kidding, just start to do your own research. If you comprehend the system that bitcoin is, and how it works, you will reach these same conclusions independently.
Sure, you can find a lot of intelligent people who attack bitcoin on one front or another. They are all wrong. Each of them can be proven wrong one by one.
You can find a lot of news articles saying "this is the flaw" or "that is the flaw" but none of them point to any flaws that actually exist. They point to misconceptions, misunderstandings, confusion about how it works. It is unstoppable and it will rise in value steadily as it comes to dominate the global currency market.
You may disagree with some of the statements I made in that post--However, I clarified a bit in the comments afterwards, as follows:
Me:
My friend "Jen":
So what, you just buy a certain amount of bitcoins, and then just sit on them? Can one just sit on them. Like. If I bought $100 worth of bitcoins, then what? Numbers plz
Me:
Well, I would advise spending an hour or two on the wiki page and an hour or so on the myths page, as well as a few hours on google, just to get a basic idea of what we're talking about--but, to answer your questions, yes, my advice would be to just buy some and sit on them. You could also invest the bitcoins themselves in other ways, but that's a whole other story--I think simply using them as a store of value is the best investment because it has less risk than any other way you could use them to invest.
I think the smartest way to use them is just like a savings account--any money you would normally put in a savings account to accrue interest, instead exchange for bitcoins and hang on to them (making sure to follow good practices to keep them safe, such as using a "paper wallet" (google it) and keeping multiple copies of your private key in safe places).
If anybody is seriously considering making any sizable investment in bitcoin, I would be happy to help guide through the process, but I would not want anybody to invest simply because they have faith in my words--You should learn enough about the system and how it works and why it works to reach your own conclusions.
My statement that they will reach $1000/coin within the next 5 to 10 years would be disputed by some people who have all the same facts as I do--It's a prediction of the future, and I don't have the ability to see into the future anymore than the next guy.
However, my prediction is based upon quite a bit of math which I would be happy to share, and there are many many people who agree that $1000/coin within 10 years is a very reasonable estimate IF BITCOIN SUCCEEDS. "Success" is defined in this statement as "becoming used as currency in a significant (even if very small) portion of the global economy." Currently the number of places that accept bitcoin as payment is still relatively small, though growing rapidly.
If bitcoin fails entirely, you could and would lose any and all money you had invested in it if you fail to see the crash coming soon enough.
Potential things that could happen that might theoretically make the whole thing crumble include:
1. Numerous governments (not just the U.S.; it's too big already for the U.S. gov't to shut down alone) working together actively to ban it completely and declare it a crime to possess or exchange them. Even in this scenario it would be very resilient and would likely just be pushed underground, where it would continue to flourish until eventually it became big enough to overcome government regulation.
2. The entire internet being turned off completely. (Note that as soon as the internet were turned back on, bitcoin would continue where it left off, no harm done, and that in the interim, it would still be possible to exchange bitcoin to some degree).
3. Quantum computers being developed that render current encryption standards obsolete. --This would really not quite be enough to kill bitcoin but would certainly be a big pot-hole in the road to a bitcoin-based economy and would require quite a bit of redesign. Fortunately, the more you research quantum computers the more you realize that they will not be capable of breaking current encryption standards any time soon, if ever at all, if it's even possible under the physical laws of the universe.
"Jen":
Wow thx
Me:
For all intents and purposes, one can consider them just another currency, just like pounds or euros or dollars.
For example, if I somehow knew that the Euro was going to go up in value and the US dollar was going to go down in value over the next year, I would be smart to take every dollar I could afford to and exchange them for euros--then even if I wasn't making any interest on them or being paid any dividends by investing them in stocks or bonds, I would profit simply by the Euro itself being worth more a year later, and those who stuck with the US dollar would lose out as their dollars went down in value.
My basic concept here is that if you learn enough about this new currency Bitcoin, you will see that it is going to way outperform the dollar, the euro, and every other currency and commodity currently available, including gold and silver.
Therefore, it's not necessary to invest your bitcoins in anything, simply to hold your savings in this unit of exchange will bring you profits. You will profit because if you buy 1 bitcoin for $75 today (or 1.25 bitcoins for $100 if you prefer, Jenny) and you hold it for ten years, if my calculations are anywhere near correct, that one bitcoin should be worth $1000 or possibly more. I think more, especially since I think the dollar will decline more rapidly than people realize, but I think the $1000/10year statement is one I can feel very, very confident making. It may be faster and more intense even than that.
Me:
I would also like to point out that while I'm promoting bitcoin strongly, it's not going to benefit me in any way if you or anybody else invests--I'm not pitching my company or trying to get you to sign up with me or some crap like that. I'm just spreading the word because I think the world deserves a seperation of currency and state.
"Jen":
Anarchistic then, eh?
Me:
Well, I'm a bit of an anarchist as well, on the side, but bitcoin is not inherently anarchistic. It certainly does not promote chaos. It's more libertarian/capitalistic, I think. Separating currency from state is in my opinion every bit as important as separating church from state--and I think that currency will be easier to peel away from government than religion could ever be!
Me:
The idea there is that nobody and no group of people, not even our government, can be trusted with a machine that prints money. The generation of money cannot be controlled by humans or groups of humans, because they will ALWAYS abuse that power in the long run. This system provides an alternate means of exchange, in which no one person or group of people has any advantage over the others, and all have to play by the same rules.
My friend "Dan":
I do not know much about bit coint but I will certainly research more. however if this can be a threat to global currencies then would it make sense for the government to outlaw it and if so would it still work?
Me:
Yes Dan, it is a threat to global currencies; however outlawing it poses a number of specific challenges.
It is a fully decentralized system (like the systems that enable peer-to-peer file sharing) meaning that enforcement of any ban would be next to impossible (the only known method of fully shutting it down would be to completely shut down the internet itself).
Furthermore, any one nation that makes it illegal to use bitcoin will be at a great disadvantage to the other nations that embrace it.
On top of that, any law against it here in the United States would be unconstitutional, and would be fought by (relatively) wealthy and powerful people who have stake in bitcoin. To ban it would be to ban barter, to ban free trade.
Also, it being a classic example of what's known as a "disruptive technology," it is advancing so quickly that regulators and legislators are having a very hard time keeping up--see the recent blunders in California, as documented below, where they sent a cease and desist order to a nonprofit organization that does not engage in any of the activities they were ordering it to stop:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2013/06/23/bitcoin-foundation-receives-cease-and-desist-order-from-california/[Suspicious link removed]j.com/moneybeat/2013/07/05/bitcoin-trade-group-bites-back-at-california/
http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/2013/06/california_dfi/
