The missing piece: just like Nd, Bitcoin price is not a constant.
and
Emarks are also not constant in price and in mining profitability and they fluctuate very quickly, a reason why not many people will mine them. Its best to just mine pure Bitcoin to get away from the hassles of mining and then finding a good exchange rate and getting your coins. With the current difficulty and prices it may not always be profitable to mine but there is always the chance price will go back up again. Keep in mind you are also competing with Bitmain and other large farms who can mine at electrical costs far below yours.
Thanks for both replies. Here are my bottom line numbers(.05799/KwH) . While I understand some global locations can compete on power, how in the world are there so many miners in the US?:
Average $3000USD and 5% growth in complexity = Never make money
Average $3500USD and 5% = Run in the green for a few months but after ~1 year out the complexity catches up
Average $4000USD and 5% = Scenario people are hoping for IF YOU HAVE 5cent/KwH electricity.
Average $4500USD and 5% AND $.12KwH energy = Run in the green for a few months but after ~1 year out the complexity catches up
Average $5000USD and 5% = ~$500 profit - 12cent/KwH electricity. BUT YOU START LOOSING MONEY IN 14 MONTHS and have to shut it down.
I think the only way you make money is to steal power because I think its unreasonable to expect the value to average well over 5K in the next 12-18 months. Maybe! But that is a very poor gamble in my book.
The only fly I see in my calculations is complexity rises and falls episodically but averages are smooth. If it stays the same for 12 months and then rises 5%, then technically my average is "right" but I am making much more money.
Thoughts?
