Am i good to go?

[fillewille]

So, in the past 6-12 months all i've been hearing about mining is that unless you invest 1000's of dollars there's no way in hell you're going profit.
I've always liked the idea of mining so in the past couple of weeks i've decided to do some real research.
The s7 seems to be the just the sweetspot for my current capital and starting out, and if it goes will i'll really invest.
I mean you don't really want to spend all money in one go and it later turns out you've missed something.
After filling in the proper statistics it's saying i will go profit in only just over half a year, while still only spending a bit over 600$!
https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/mining/a/tQStUZj6Q2HF9SSeGkNYV
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Brand-New-Zero-Mining-Hours-Bitmain-Antminer-S7-bitcoin-miner-BTC-4-7TH-5TH-/262746901856?_ul=SE

So, these statistics suggest the complete opposite to everything i've seen so far (even though i only put 5% in the monthly bitcoin value increase)
I live in a pretty big house, so noise is not a problem.
Electricity costs are decently cheap.
I live in sweden where it's generally pretty cold. It doesn't really get any warmer than maybe 20-22 degrees inside & 25 outside and with again, a pretty big house from the research i've done i don't think it will be a problem.

So my question is:
Am i golden? have i missed some vital piece of information, will heat be a problem? will difficulty rise (too much) or bitcoin value fall? ect.
I don't want to spend 600$ before getting confirmation from someone with experience that it has a chance of working out.

Thanks in beforehand to whoever answers!

PS, sorry, i imagine this forum gets about 10 of these post a day :I

[FuzzyQuant]

There are always risks with any sort of venture/investment and, in your case, they have to do with future difficulty of the network and price of bitcoin.

At the end of the day, no one can accurately forecast these 2 variables, but you can make some educated guesses.

In terms of difficulty, the network will grow over time, we are nowhere near the big part of the adoption curve, and this means that difficulty is most likely to keep its rise.

How fast will it rise? No one knows for sure, but you can bet on months where the rise is quicker and months where it is slower - it has to do with bitcoin's price too (when the price falls, some miners automatically drop off and the difficulty levels-off or falls a bit temporarily).

In terms of the price, it is extremely volatile as anyone can attest and there is always a possibility for a big swing up or down.

If you are assuming a 5% increase per month in the price, this compounds to a 34% increase over 6 months (1.05^6), which would put the price of bitcoin ~7800 USD.

Lately, people who have had money to invest have preferred investing in bitcoin itself, rather than mining hardware and it has been a good call, but it has its own risks.

I would say that if you are comfortable with the risks outlined here and also want to mine for the experience of it, then go for it!

At worst, you will recuperate most of your investment and can potentially re-sell the miner to someone else for the difference and have a pretty-sure break-even, but unclear how much pure-profit you will make.

If you want to speculate on bitcoin, buy bitcoin instead, but you have a chance of not recuperating what you invested, while being more exposed to drastic price gains.

I look at the miners as a way to participate in bitcoin with low-risk of losing all of the money invested, it's like a call-option on the stock market!

And for the heat, the air surrounding the miner is obviously hot, but you are not running a mining-farm, so don't worry. Like you said, you have a big house, so it won't be noticeable, especially in Sweden

[fillewille]

Thanks for the detailed explination!