I'm quite pessimistic for the short term, everything has been struggling since early June. I know there was the big bitcoin event and everything fell... but as soon as it recovered there was China, Jamie Dimon etc. The market is really struggling to reach ATH. I think we might see a dip before November, and then a rise afterwards back to about where we are now.
Hope I'm wrong though!
You have the same conservative approach I have. I think the bull run was completely unexpected, but it did help cushion the bad news from China and all those ICO bans and what not. I dread to think what would have happened if Bitcoin was not past $4000 when the news arrived. I think the alts would have suffered a lot more.
I think patience is key here. We must remember it is still 3 months left to a fantastic year.