Not attempting to start a FUD thread, I've seen alot of analysis lately that the rate at which BTC is growing, it's going to burst and there would be a massive price correction.
Personally, I doubt any price drop higher than 10%. My forecast was 15k by year end but that's gone and I've stopped forcasting of BTC price.
Now to my question, is a burst likely and what % price drop would be a BTC bubble burst?
At this point in a parabolic rally, you have to throw analysis out the window. Only very basic trading principles and supply/demand analysis apply here. Price already left the log trend to the upside on the last run to $17k, which means we're probably already in the blow-off stage of the rally:
A chart pattern that indicates a steep and rapid increase in a security's price and trading volume followed by a steep and rapid drop in price and volume. The rapid changes indicated by a blow-off top, also called a blow-off move or exhaustion move, can be the result of actual news or pure speculation.
I'm using the late 2013 rally as a model. The November 2013 monthly candle had a range ~450%. For comparison, we are currently at ~83%. Therefore, I expect this to run much further than most people expect. The $50,000s would be a proper extension.
After that..... long term bear market could be back on the menu.
So you're basing your expectations on an example of when bitcoin was a much much smaller market and therefore had much more volatility than today, but you're also basing it on a one time event (MtGox crash) predicting it to follow the same thing...
Some people really need to learn to analyze things better, no offense.
What does the MT Gox crash have to do with anything? It happened months after the blow-off top already occurred. You obviously didn't read what I said, because I was speaking to magnitude of the vertical rise, not the subsequent crash.
Also, a long-term bear market doesn't necessarily mean a 90% drop. It could also be a sideways consolidation where the lowest leg doesn't go beyond 50%. And if you think MT Gox was the
reason for the 2-year bear market, you don't understand markets at all. I suggest studying Wyckoff, as well as basic premises of supply and demand.
This is the third parabolic rally in Bitcoin I've experienced. I've also traded several others in the stock market, like Nvidia. So I'm not basing my thinking on one example, but rather on several data points and a larger understanding of momentum trading. And FYI we saw similar monthly ranges during the 2011, April 2013 and November 2013 rallies. It sounds like you are the one who thinks "this time is different." Maybe you are right, but what basis do you have to argue it? I'd appreciate it if you'd "analyze things better." No offense, Mr. "Registered May 21, 2017."
The bull runs back in the day were much larger percentage-wise than today because there was much less money in the game.
Show us the numbers.
And when you say there was much less money in the game, you need to account for the fact the institutional investors are piling into the market. With a circulating supply as low as BTC, the difference between $10,000 and $20,000 (as we have just seen) is virtually nothing. It's a matter of days. More than that, companies like Square need to buy significant BTC to fund their operation, which they can now hedge on regulated futures markets. I expect similar moves from other digital wallet providers like ApplePay.
And you can't base a current prediction based on MtGox crashing almost 4 years ago and creating a 3 year down market...how does that make any sense at all?? That was a specific event that caused that ridiculously long down market.
Who said anything about MT Gox? What are you talking about? And Mt Gox didn't cause the bear market. If you think an exchange going down (and removing hundreds of thousands of BTC from liquid supply) can cause a 2-year bear market, I've got a bridge to sell you.
