Who knows ANYTHING about bitcoin?! Is it just guesses?

[DaveSpruce]

Hi guys! I'm new to the "bitcoin world" (found out about it 1 month ago) and as a friend told me, once you've seen this world, it can not be unseen. It's very true.

I've been reading a fair bit of the discussions here and trying to figure out how it all works, if it's going up or going down. Seems like EVERYONE has their own opinion and "theory" or even "know" what will happen.

It baffles me to see the same from the so called "experts" around the world. Financial advisors, experts, economical analysts and so on. I've seen forecasts saying it will go down the next 24 hours, it's gone up. I've read them saying it'll spike when it's in fact crashed. I've read articles saying 9300 was the "roof" and once it hit that it would go down to around 8500-8800 and that same day it shot up to over 11000 and have stayed around that area for a bit, with a few corrections of course. I attended a webinar by Chief Market Analyst David Cheetham on November 14 on the topic  "5 Reasons why Bitcoin could hit $10k by April 2018". Well.. Only took a week or so and it hit 10k and busted right through it, and then some. This expert, these experts, have not even been CLOSE to the reality of things. It's worse than weather forecasts! At least their pretty accurate when it comes to 24 hours or less.. Here it can literally go the exact opposite way of the forecast or prediction. Most of these articales and information was printed and published on "somewhat" reputable sites, wouldn't you think you could "trust it"? Why do these people even get to keep their jobs?! They're apparently not doing a very good job, or is it because when they do get it right 1 out of 10, or less, they get a pat on the back, applauds and they can finally say "I told you so!"

My simple question is. Who knows anything about where things are going? Is it simply just a gamble, like roulette? In some cases, the russian version of it. Are there any AT ALL factors controlling the moves of the BTC value, will it go to 5k or 20k before the new year. Can it hit 40k before the end of the year? What's simply possible and what's IMPOSSIBLE? From my, rather short experience the answer to the first question is anything and to the second it's nothing. Seems like it's just doing random things as it sees fit..

If anyone has ANY literally helpful or true information on this topic it would be fun to read it.

Thanks for the info and good reading so far guys

Aloha

Dave

[mobnepal]

Bitcoin price is volatile because it has low marketcap and when one whale will take profit it can get dumped hard, similarly when newbie investors will buy bitcoin price will increase.

Bitcoin price is affected by demand for it, with increasing number of merchants all over the world even normal people are searching for bitcoin and buying it to use in nearby stores or to store their wealth in new digital gold (bitcoin).

People keep speculating about bitcoin future prices which is normal with all trading assets, you have to make right moves during huge dump/pump in bitcoin price to not loss much. Its not like gambling, bitcoin price can't dump without any big reason.

[DaveSpruce]

I somewhat understand why it might go up or down. My question was more on the line of, "Who can you trust or listen to when it comes to forecasts and expectations?" Seeing how all the "experts" often are wrong, and that's the experts. Wouldn't you think they would know a bit more than most people and be able to give somewhat accurate information. I also understand there are unexpected events happening. Say someone dropped a nuke in Tokyo, or there's an earthquake that destroys LA, then that would of course affect USD just like BTC will soar if Amazon all of a sudden announce they will accept BTC as payment. But when it comes to just simple movement, anticipation there should be a little more accuracy in my mind Predicting it might hit 10k before April 2018 and then 1 week later it hits it? That's not a very good prediction, although he was right. it did hit 10k by april 2018, just A LOT sooner.. If there are a couple of big "whales" controlling the market with HUGE assets then it's basically those guys (or girls, but let's be honest, it's guys) that control how things move, right?

[Xavofat]

Who can you trust or listen to when it comes to forecasts and expectations?

If everyone trusted the same people, the price would abide by their forecast exactly because that's what everyone believed would happen.

That's why it's important to invest based on what you perceive the value to be now, not what you think the price will be a year from when you buy it.  There's no point basing your speculation on how other people are going to speculate.

Since BTC doesn't have a lot of fundamentals pegging it down beyond a certain point, it's pretty much impossible to know what its value is.