I know everything is off by 1 year, but bear with me here...
Jump to exhibit D for the punchlineExhibit A
Guys I have some bad news for short term speculators. I just got back from the future in my time machine and I managed to take a screenshot of 'wisdom.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FeOqrxhu.png&t=665&c=tn245Ed6iVpj0Q)
Exhibit B
Here is a bullish and a bearish possibility moving forward, though I am no longer placing bets on the downside as it is too risky at this point, even if that case were to materialize.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fez5AEVT.png&t=665&c=rFl-7MkVMSbNrA)
Exhibit C
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FIkoEj34.png&t=665&c=Crl7m4tfWKGAlw)
There have only been two bubbles in bitcoin. Bubbles are actually a series of multiple bull-runs (about 4). Inbetween bull-runs are short consolidations and inbetween bubbles are deep prolonged crashes. It's
somewhat like EW theory. Every rise in itself is not a "bubble" - this is a misnomer.
Exhibit D
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FKAIWinv.png%26t%3D585%26c%3DD3JGKWMH_mRTbQ&t=665&c=8VtcKS-8PoK_mw)
Here is how an EW analyst might see the future. (abc would be longer time but I couldn't fit on chart). I could try to rationalize the peak with something like ' all
governemnts ban btc once it is big enough to pose an actual threat to fiat currency' or 'catastrophic protocol failure or
unresolvable scalability issue', 'world financial meltdown / wars' or simply '
competition from something better'.
In summary, first I predicted that we would go further down in a EW wave into a multi year sideways trend in the 200-300 area before going back up to a new ATH, which nobody expected and thought I was super bearish for. Then I predicted we were in an even larger EW wave and the next bubble, bubble 3, would be wave 5 and go to 20,000 before starting ABC. Wave 5 is shown as weaker than Wave 1 or 3, as it is supposed to be, and matches with what we just saw where we had a really slow controlled rally instead of the spikes we are used to.
I also gave multiple reasons for a drop which we weren't really having back then but are having now.sry for the bear thread
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FUXGskqG.jpg&t=665&c=2n4yLkdGynL5cA)
hodl