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关于比特币的走势两大外媒扛上了:市场变动可能更大
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Topic: 关于比特币的走势两大外媒扛上了:市场变动可能更大 (Read 103 times)
ldreligion
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关于比特币的走势两大外媒扛上了:市场变动可能更大
November 19, 2017, 04:07:35 AM
#1
当地时间10月31日,全球最大的期货交易所CME(美国芝加哥商品交易所集团)宣布计划今年年底前推出比特币期货的金融产品,并已经将该计划提交到相关机构审查,审查之后将立即实施。《金融时报》专门撰写了一篇文章,就期货交易对比特币价格可能造成的影响进行了分析。文章标题明确表明了《金融时报》的观点,“看空比特币吧,因为它将变得‘文明化’ (civilised”)。但美国财经博客网站Zerohedge也发表文章,针锋相对地进行了反驳。
《金融时报》的文章指出:近几年,比特币成为了金融市场“狂野的西部”。但是,现在它即将变得“文明化”。芝加哥商品交易所计划在几周后开始将比特币期货加入到该所现有的期货产品中。芝加哥另外一家交易所运营商Cboe Global Markets可能也将加入这个行列。推行期货交易后,投资者能够在不持有比特币的情况下对这种货币的未来走向进行下注——就像即使投资者没有养猪,也可以通过芝加哥的交易所押注猪鬃毛的价格。
因此,《金融时报》表达了部分CME参与者的担忧,即目前的管理监督并不足够,并且比特币相对稳定的数量可能导致部分投资者出现巨额亏损。
Zerohedge对此不以为然,指出CME已经了解比特币比特币交易量,并且下定决心进军该市场,不管部分成员是否会因此遭受巨大损失。即使这些情况真的发生,该机构也能予以应对。
同时,《金融时报》还提到了期货交易对比特币价格的影响:在监管问题讨论越来越激烈的同时,投资者也正面对一个更为急迫的问题:比特币价格。到目前,比特币“传道者”一直认为,如果(或者当)这种货币变得更加“文明化”,其价格将被拉升。有观点认为,将比特币纳入主流交易世界将提高其吸引力和需求,使其变得更具价值。
但《金融时报》认为比特币价格最终将会回落,其指出:很有可能届时将造成相反的结果。到目前为止,投资者都没有方便的途径来投资看空比特币,唯一的办法就是抛售这种货币。不过CME期货合同将让投资者找到地方来进行这些卖空交易。《金融时报》还举了1989年日本推出股票衍生品,之后泡沫破裂的例子。
Zerohedge认为使用这个例子并不恰当。首先,1989年中日本任命了一位非常鹰派的央行行长,他宣布计划抑制房价上涨并打击英姿银行系统;其次,所有的泡沫破裂都是极端例子。期货交易在导致泡沫破裂的过程中只是起到了非常小的作用。
《金融时报》还举了在次贷危机爆发前推出ABXIndex (次级房屋抵押贷款债券价格综合指数)的例子。但Zerohedge指出,这个例子是将衍生品的影响与泡沫资产市场价格不可避免地修正混淆在一起。
Zerohedge认为,推出比特币期货的影响是难以预测的,因为其取决于两个相反因素的相互作用。首先,随着加密数字货币的资产属性逐渐被大众所接受,更多机构资金可能会进入这个部门,持有看多期货仓位就是其中一个途径。其次,比特币期货将采用现金结算,这意味着有可能期货交易量大大超过“实际”比特币的买入和卖出。如果这种情况发生,那么“尾巴可能摇动狗”,因为市场定价是由期货交易所主导的。这样的话,投资者、大银行以及任何“正式”市场参与者可以通过无担保卖空(naked short,裸空)进行市场操纵。
出于这个理由,Zerohedge认为增加期货合同并不一定会使比特币“文明化”。
来源:凤凰国际iMarkets
AD:【比特币场外交易(OTC)就去比特币世界】
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