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多空博弈耶伦加息暗示 金价V型震荡后再迎两大“冲击波”
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Topic: 多空博弈耶伦加息暗示 金价V型震荡后再迎两大“冲击波” (Read 69 times)
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多空博弈耶伦加息暗示 金价V型震荡后再迎两大“冲击波”
November 21, 2017, 07:11:06 AM
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黄金周三(2月15日)亚盘维持1225美元关口震荡,耶伦国会证词较市场预期“鹰派”,美元指数升至三周高位,但黄金顶住压力未出现“大幅跳水”,表明多空短线力量依然焦灼。
昨天美联储主席耶伦在国会发表半年度货币政策证词时,重申等待太久加息是不明智的。美联储在近期某次的会议上加息可能就是适宜的。《华尔街日报》指出,耶伦传递了三月可能加息的信号。
市场对美联储3月加息的预期进一步升温。联邦基金期货走势显示,3月加息概率攀升至36%,讲话前这一几率为30%。5月加息概率自48%上升至54%,6月加息概率自71%攀升至74%。
高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)经济学家Jan Hatzius表示,耶伦国会证词对近期收紧货币政策提供了比预期更多的支持。该行将3月份加息概率从15%提高至20%,并维持5月和6月加息概率在20%和45%不变。
高盛强调,“需要看到好于预期的经济数据,包括周三(2月15日)发布的美国1月CPI数据,才能促使FOMC在3月份加息。”
摩根大通(JPMorgan)经济学家Michael Feroli称,尽管美联储主席耶伦(Jannet Yellen)周二(2月14日)的证词内容“乐观”,并与上半年加息的预期一致,但可能还没有鹰派到足以在3月份采取行动。预期今年首次加息发生在6月份。同时,如果经济数据继续表现强劲,5月份行动的概率可能上升。
周三市场焦点转移到美国两项关键数据:1月零售和CPI通胀数据。
美国通胀将是投资者关注的一大焦点。随着油价反弹,美国1月通胀年率料自2015年9月时不到0.5%的水平升至2.4%。昨天中国统计局公布1月CPI同比涨2.5%,创两年半新高。中美通胀一起走高,或加速加息周期,从而利空黄金。
此外,市场预期美国1月季调后消费者物价指数(CPI)月率料上升0.3%,升幅与上月持平;1月未季调CPI年率料攀升2.4%,升幅高于上月的2.1%。
美国零售销售数据也被称为“恐怖数据”,消费支出占美国经济产出的70%左右,美联储强调利率决定将取决于经济数据。
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