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比特币价格两年间上涨250% 崩盘可能性逾80%
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Topic: 比特币价格两年间上涨250% 崩盘可能性逾80% (Read 111 times)
anastasia7627
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比特币价格两年间上涨250% 崩盘可能性逾80%
November 29, 2017, 03:45:04 AM
#1
全球多个交易平台比特币价格突破1万美元。然而在比特币价格一路飙涨的同时,也有不少分析人士对比特币的未来持怀疑态度。分析人士称,比特币很快会崩溃的可能性超过80%。
全球多个交易平台比特币突破1万美元大关
据中国证券网报道,全球多个交易平台的比特币价格在11月28日亚市早盘突破1万美元大关;据CoinMarketCap网站的数据,北京时间11月28日9时55分,韩国交易量最大的交易平台Bithumb比特币报价为10176.4美元;韩国比特币交易平台Coinone及Korbit、非洲最大比特币交易平台Luno、土耳其交易平台Paribu以及比特币印尼交易平台的报价介于10061.60至12045.80美元间;而全球大多数比特币交易所的价格在9500至9700美元区间。
比特币价格两年间上涨250% 崩盘可能性逾80%
五大因素助推比特币上涨
OKEx的分析师称,助推比特币上扬的利好因素包括五个方面:世界首支比特币公募基金问世、韩国无意监管比特币交易、芝商所推出比特币期货、津巴布韦通货膨胀以及白俄罗斯推进加密货币合法化。
然而在比特币价格一路飙涨的同时,也有不少分析人士对比特币的未来持怀疑态度。瑞士信贷CEO表示,对比特币持谨慎态度。更有分析人士称,根据一项针对资产价格猛涨时发生的情况的研究,可以估算出该资产崩盘的速度。比特币价格飙升远远超过了崩盘即将到来的门槛。
今年早些时候,美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)发表了题为“Fama泡沫”的研究报告。
研究人员将泡沫定义为,某种资产在两年里,价格大幅上涨,随后的两年里至少下跌了40%。当价格上涨100%或更多时,崩盘的可能性为50%。当价格上涨超过150%时,这个概率就变成了80%。当价格上涨幅度变得更大时,崩盘就“几乎是肯定的”。”
比特币价格两年间上涨250% 崩盘可能性逾80%
比特币崩盘无可避免?
过去两年里比特币价格上涨了近250%,这比研究人员发现的阈值水平高出10倍以上,意味着比特币价格崩盘的几乎是无法避免的事情。
可以肯定的是,研究人员关注的是股票市场,而不是加密货币。但分析人士称,他们的结论也适用于比特币,因为这项研究分析了近一个世纪以来在美国和国外股市的历史数据,并得出了大致相似的结论,无论时间或国家。
比特币价格两年间上涨250% 崩盘可能性逾80%
是否崩盘与基本面因素无关
此外,研究人员发现,没有任何证据能表明,崩盘的可能性取决于任何基本因素。这是一个至关重要的细节,因为许多比特币的信徒坚持认为比特币的基本情况是独一无二的,因此历史上的先例并不适用。然而,每一次之前的泡沫都伴随着类似的历史独特性。
人们常说,投资中最危险的观点是“这次不一样”。比特币投资者尤其不应忘记这一点。
w_yuzhou
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Re: 比特币价格两年间上涨250% 崩盘可能性逾80%
November 29, 2017, 06:38:35 AM
#2
最近数字货币市场确实太疯狂了,比特币会不会崩盘我不知道。
确实很难说,现在比特币已经不在受总量的约束,它通过不停地分叉创造新的价值。
而且其中core团队,矿工,后来的投资者各个利益趋向不同,非常有可能会有极大的震荡。
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