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专家:陆房价高涨骑虎难下 恐引发债务危机
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Topic: 专家:陆房价高涨骑虎难下 恐引发债务危机 (Read 126 times)
terry1xxx
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专家:陆房价高涨骑虎难下 恐引发债务危机
December 04, 2017, 05:57:39 AM
#1
彭博驻香港经济学家陈世渊认为,过去两年大陆房价上涨太夸张了。有专家认为,大陆房地产不是完全市场化的市场,解决问题必须从根本上着手,退还土地资源于人民。
近日,大陆《断层智库》透露,彭博驻香港经济学家陈世渊在谈到大陆目前房地产状况时指出,过去两年大陆房价基本上涨了100%,全世界都没有这样的,太夸张了,这个奇迹有可能写入经济史。
他说,“当房价涨到这么高的时候,肯定是骑虎难下。” 现在后遗症就出来了,房价打下来会触发债务危机。
他还说,大陆房地产有很强的周期,以前每一轮涨30%、40%,这一波涨的太快。房价不打下来继续涨,到时就非常危险了。“接下来一波泡沫可能就爆了。”房价要是维持到目前水平,也比较尴尬,“房价想维持这个价格就能维持这个价格吗?”
房地产销售量一般是先行指标,基本上会领先房价和投资几个季度。目前大陆房地产销售下降比较快,10月份是负增长,陈世渊认为,可能因为“19大”等各方面因素,后续可能会反弹。“但房地产明年会下行,这是经济内生性下行的最大的负面因素。”
陈世渊拥有美国佐治亚州立大学经济学博士学位和中国厦门大学金融学硕士学位。目前主要负责中国实时数据分析和为彭博简报撰写中国和亚洲经济研究报告。
此前,陈世渊撰写报告表示,现在大陆企业债务是困扰经济的大问题,但核心并不是债务本身,而是企业不行了。像那些僵尸企业把人力资源、信贷资源、土地资源等都占据了,为了维持生存,每年至少还要借利息,债务不断增加。
麦格理集团中国首席经济学家胡伟俊曾预测说,明年中国大陆经济增速在6%,房地产投资增速很难保持今年的水平,房地产将成为明年大陆经济增速下行的主要压力。
大陆房地产不是完全市场化的市场
去年9月底至今,官方持续进行楼市调控。据公开数据,今年1至10月,全国发布楼市调控政策逾210次。当局19大时再次强调“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”。
但华远地产股份有限公司原董事长任志强预测2018年房价还会大涨。理由是土地供应已经连续两年下滑,将影响到未来城市的库存;一线城市的人口还在不停地增长。最近他又表示,“房价离合理水平还差得很远。”中国从来没有出台一个政策限制地价,所有的不合理大概都在地价上。“调控政策最大的问题是无法。”
任志强还认为,中国大陆房地产市场是受中共操控的,不是一个完全市场化的市场。
美国南卡罗莱纳大学艾肯商学院教授谢田认为,大陆房市泡沫一开始就是政治产物,是政治干预经济,政客从经济中直接获利,政治受益于经济的产物。要解决中国房地产的问题,就必须从政治入手,从根本上解决。解决的途径,就是废除共产党的特权,剥夺被共产党兼并的财富,退还土地资源于人民
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