Google Trends 2011 v 2013: Don't get your hopes up.

[BitcoinAshley]

The time frames were picked so that the "bubbles" lined up.

Some people think that because there was a small uptick recently, we're going to see that red line. "2 da moon!"
There were similar upticks in 2011 post-bubble. No doubt at that time, folks were like "But google trends started going up again... signifies trend reversal. 2 da moon!" Google trends went right back down, along with price. 10 points if you can link to a thread from 2011 where someone says just that.

[N12]

How did you zoom in on the 2011 Google Trends chart? Can you link it?

Good observation by the way.

[BitcoinAshley]

How did you zoom in on the 2011 Google Trends chart? Can you link it?

Good observation by the way.

On the left column, under "Limit to," click on "2004-present." At the bottom of the list, click "Select dates..." and you can zoom anywhere you want.
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin#q=bitcoin&date=4%2F2011%209m&cmpt=q

[cbeast]

A little exaggerated here. Maybe not 2 da moon, but an average growth is there. Google is only one indicator. The uptick is more like that second glance you need to get before you get laid.

[BitcoinAshley]

A little exaggerated here. Maybe not 2 da moon, but an average growth is there. Google is only one indicator. The uptick is more like that second glance you need to get before you get laid.

Hey, I go to all that work figuring out the GIMP interface, and at the very least I should be able to indulge in a little strawman 

[IIOII]

Search volume growth requires some novelty of the search object as most searches are done in the discovery process of the search object by the public.

For an object that is already well known there's less reason to search for.

So the more commonplace Bitcoin will be, the less meaningful are search volume trends.

[semaforo]

Bitcoin software downloads might be a better indicator.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Bitcoin software downloads might be a better indicator.

Not really! I've said it before that many people download every new version. I know I have a client on 3 computers currently, then multiply that by at least 10 versions I've had since I started and that is a lot of downloads. I'm sure there are others who do the same

[semaforo]

A lot of people make searches with "bitcoin" in it even though they've already heard of it...

[BitcoinAshley]

Good, we are learning to analyze various indicators for what they can and cannot tell us. 

Google trends has its limits as do client downloads.

[manfred]

This treat was posted on the 12^th of June, price at the time  $ 110.  "Bitcoin, Insider Trading Info"

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=232733.msg2451952#msg2451952
.

[Elwar]

I did not read your analysis but the red line tells me something big is about to happen!

[BitcoinAshley]

I did not read your analysis but the red line tells me something big is about to happen!

You are correct; the red line tells us that the OPPOSITE of the red line is likely to happen.

[Lohoris]

The time frames were picked so that the "bubbles" lined up.

Some people think that because there was a small uptick recently, we're going to see that red line. "2 da moon!"
There were similar upticks in 2011 post-bubble. No doubt at that time, folks were like "But google trends started going up again... signifies trend reversal. 2 da moon!" Google trends went right back down, along with price. 10 points if you can link to a thread from 2011 where someone says just that.

Has anyone bothered to plot a complete chart comparing google trends with BTCUSD?

[notme]

Bitcoin software downloads might be a better indicator.

Not really! I've said it before that many people download every new version. I know I have a client on 3 computers currently, then multiply that by at least 10 versions I've had since I started and that is a lot of downloads. I'm sure there are others who do the same

On the other hand, for those of us that run linux distros that package bitcoin, there is one git clone done by the package maintainer (which doesn't show up in sourceforge stats) and then we all download the package from the repositories (which doesn't show up in stats either).  But, you have a point in that you would have to adjust the stats for post-release surges before you could run any meaningful analysis on it.

[tutkarz]

sorry but if we would like to have increase in bitcoin price, then more people have to come to bitcoin which means more people have to search it on google for example.

[Elwar]

Bitcoin price is a good Google Trends predictor.