2011 vs. 2013: The Definitive Comparison

[nrd525]

Google search trends for "bitcoin"
2011


2013


So far the 2013 recovery looks worse than the 2011 one when compared to the start of the year (though not when compared to the peak).  Currently our search volume is only 3 times what it was in January, 2013.  Whereas in 2011, it looks like the search volume at this point was maybe 6 times more.

If the search volume correlates with price - then it is roughly predicting a $40 price.  Though it could be that if the search volume doubles, the price goes up by more than double (critical mass).

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Please define the "bubble start" (what is it?), or your theory costs nothing.

The start of a rapid rise after long consolidation. 2013 definitely has a clear start in January. For 2011 the start isn't as clear, so I just chose the start that is LEAST advantageous to my bullish argument (that is, the least amount of consolidation beforehand). Had I chosen an earlier date for the 2011 bubble start, the bubble would look that much bigger and have "crashed" to that much higher of a plateau, boding even better for 2013 prices under the "this is a repeat of 2013" theory.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Search volume is both a leading AND and trailing indicator, so we can't draw conclusions from those Google Trends graphs, though they could form pieces of a bearish argument in conjunction with other evidence.

Another thing about Google Trends is that people google something a lot more if they're wondering what the hell it is. A lot more people know what it is or are exposed to it through articles that explain it well now, since more explanatory materials are in place (for example that new "What is Bitcoin?" video with the Australian narrator and high-end visual effects). Perhaps using the phrase "buy bitcoins" or something could eliminate this misleading factor.

Also, the 2011 bubble was way more dramatic and there were all those scams and bad news after the pop keeping search volume high.

[manfred]

The software download has roughly doubled, otherwise more or less the same pattern.