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武力统一代价大 恐打乱北京全球布局
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Topic: 武力统一代价大 恐打乱北京全球布局 (Read 57 times)
terry1xxx
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武力统一代价大 恐打乱北京全球布局
December 11, 2017, 04:30:10 AM
#1
中共军机频繁绕台,甚至恫吓台湾飞行员,对于未来两岸关系变化,台湾政治大学国关中心主任寇健文表示,从中共19大政治报告对台政策的内容,和后续军机绕台等实际作为来看,北京是同时对蓝绿施压,渐进地增加对台压力与吸力,他要提醒台湾各政党,“台湾赛局的赢家,未必带来两岸赛局的胜利。”
政大国际关系研究中心近日举办“政策、产业趋势与前瞻论坛-全球与两岸情势评估”,寇健文在会中对两岸政治做出分析,以目前局势来看,未来两岸僵局持续的可能性较大,主因是双方暂时皆无诱因主动改变自己的底线,也没能力或意愿逼迫对方改变底线,北京将在战略上主动布局的情况下,“伺机而动、以逸待劳”。
“北京认为自己掌握战略主动优势,所以坚持底线,希望民进党政府主动靠拢,对北京来说,僵局持续对台湾的损失较大,因此无所谓,目前台湾问题不是他的政策优先顺序中最重要议题,再加上‘武统’代价与后遗症太大,现在若为台湾问题打乱整个全球战略布局,得不偿失,只要确保台湾始终在后院围篱中,根据自己的步调进行两岸社会经济融合发展(吸纳依附)即可。”
寇健文指出,总统蔡英文态度正好相反,希望北京主动再把门打开一点,因此双方过去都曾抛出善意,但始终无法形成善意循环,再加上目前双方都没能力或意愿逼对方上谈判桌,所以僵局就持续下去。
基于本身立场,民进党政府无意也无法以承认九二共识的方式,换取在两岸赛局中的得分,因此只能维持僵局的两岸现状。
寇健文说,民进党未来的得分重点,将是台湾的国内赛局,民进党对继续执政的政治布局,是否能解决重要社会议题与经济发展;国民党是否能浴火重生或坠落谷底;时代力量继续壮大,俨然成为新的第二大党等等,将是影响两岸关系的关键,2018九合一选举将是关键点。
他也提醒,不管哪一个政党成为台湾赛局赢家,未必带来两岸赛局的胜利,或许短期内能赢得执政权,但长期而言,将失去两岸关系的主动地位,各政党应思考未来两岸方向,而不是只有执政问题而已
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