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Author Topic: Gavin Anderson warned of the transaction and fees crisis  (Read 396 times)
Realist247 (OP)
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December 11, 2017, 03:45:37 PM
 #1


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/540921/the-looming-problem-that-could-kill-bitcoin/

This was over 2 years ago.  Those that ran the price up over the last $9000 probably have no idea about these issues.  With things the way they are they will find out...and that's when the panic selling will begin.  This is not FUD...it's FACT.  Everyone was warned by the top dev...and nothing was done.  Now is a good time for everyone to look into futures and options to hedge their bets if they cannot sell.
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December 11, 2017, 04:03:33 PM
 #2


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/540921/the-looming-problem-that-could-kill-bitcoin/

This was over 2 years ago.  Those that ran the price up over the last $9000 probably have no idea about these issues.  With things the way they are they will find out...and that's when the panic selling will begin.  This is not FUD...it's FACT.  Everyone was warned by the top dev...and nothing was done.  Now is a good time for everyone to look into futures and options to hedge their bets if they cannot sell.


I am not surprised that many of what Gavin Anderson had predicted two years ago are now happening with Bitcoin and sadly nothing concrete yet has been done about. As what I read somewhere, the main problem is not really technical but more of a political in nature. It means that those who are vested to decide on matters like this could not find a solid consensus as to what to do with the problem. All of the hard forks we experienced so far are all symptoms of this malice affecting the Bitcoin community. This is one of the disadvantages with a decentralized system -- no single person can decide on the issue hence there is no successful solution so far. Now, I am still optimistic with Bitcoin though as I am hoping that soon these problems can be given adequate and acceptable remedies.
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December 11, 2017, 04:10:38 PM
 #3


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/540921/the-looming-problem-that-could-kill-bitcoin/

This was over 2 years ago.  Those that ran the price up over the last $9000 probably have no idea about these issues.  With things the way they are they will find out...and that's when the panic selling will begin.  This is not FUD...it's FACT.  Everyone was warned by the top dev...and nothing was done.  Now is a good time for everyone to look into futures and options to hedge their bets if they cannot sell.


It is now evident that fees and scalability issue aren't the obstacle in the way of bitcoin and its price. If so is the case then people would have already migrated to any of the rest of 1000+ cryptocurrencies or there would have been flippening already with some forked coin. But this isn't the case. People aren't affected from transaction delay or high fees while purchasing bitcoins. The central idea behind bitcoin has been changed and people are more interested in buying, holding and selling at higher prices rather than using bitcoins in general transactions.
Realist247 (OP)
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December 11, 2017, 04:16:56 PM
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https://www.technologyreview.com/s/540921/the-looming-problem-that-could-kill-bitcoin/

This was over 2 years ago.  Those that ran the price up over the last $9000 probably have no idea about these issues.  With things the way they are they will find out...and that's when the panic selling will begin.  This is not FUD...it's FACT.  Everyone was warned by the top dev...and nothing was done.  Now is a good time for everyone to look into futures and options to hedge their bets if they cannot sell.


It is now evident that fees and scalability issue aren't the obstacle in the way of bitcoin and its price. If so is the case then people would have already migrated to any of the rest of 1000+ cryptocurrencies or there would have been flippening already with some forked coin. But this isn't the case. People aren't affected from transaction delay or high fees while purchasing bitcoins. The central idea behind bitcoin has been changed and people are more interested in buying, holding and selling at higher prices rather than using bitcoins in general transactions.

It only started to really get bad in the last couple of weeks...as in deal-breaker bad that will cause people to scratch their heads and ask themselves, "What did I get myself into?"  It's like saying that it's ok that your dog poops and pees all over your house because he's an expensive dog and no one will mind.  You might be able to live in piss and shit, but your wife or significant other will get fed up and force you to sell the dog...or they'll move out.

People do not want to invest in broken technology.  They will look for an alternative without the current flaws.  I cannot imagine people want to hold onto something that is becoming more useless with each new price high.
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December 11, 2017, 04:27:45 PM
 #5

It was to be expected since the fees are denominated in bitcoin. Imagine how it will look like if the bitcoin reaches the 100000$? Fee of 100$-200$. So with this in mind it's clear that bitcoin will not be used as a payment means but purely as a value store until fees are severely reduced in btc.
Realist247 (OP)
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December 11, 2017, 04:33:58 PM
 #6

It was to be expected since the fees are denominated in bitcoin. Imagine how it will look like if the bitcoin reaches the 100000$? Fee of 100$-200$. So with this in mind it's clear that bitcoin will not be used as a payment means but purely as a value store until fees are severely reduced in btc.

That's wishful thinking.  Just like Gavin said, BTC will die.  People will dump it and run to an altcoin that doesn't have these scaling problems....an all-in-one solution.  What everyone dreams of happening is the crypto equivalent of holding gold (BTC) while using silver (LTC) for day to day transactions.  That won't happen.  Most people will just dump their BTC and pile into LTC, Dash, or some other all-on-one coin.
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December 11, 2017, 04:36:46 PM
 #7


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/540921/the-looming-problem-that-could-kill-bitcoin/

This was over 2 years ago.  Those that ran the price up over the last $9000 probably have no idea about these issues.  With things the way they are they will find out...and that's when the panic selling will begin.  This is not FUD...it's FACT.  Everyone was warned by the top dev...and nothing was done.  Now is a good time for everyone to look into futures and options to hedge their bets if they cannot sell.


Those points stated by Gavin is really disturbing facts yet I salute bitcoin for still surviving and pump even more over time I just wish that this issues would be resolved before speculation on bitcoin for being a bubble thingy take place.
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December 11, 2017, 04:39:07 PM
 #8

This was over 2 years ago.  Those that ran the price up over the last $9000 probably have no idea about these issues.  With things the way they are they will find out...and that's when the panic selling will begin. 

Except many will be only running up the price on exchange, so isolated from the issue.  And if there is a sudden realisation of the problems, there wont be an orderly transition to alts, it will be a flight for exit.  So the problem needs to be addressed in a rational way, however we've seen how well the community copes with that, with the block size changes.

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December 11, 2017, 04:43:39 PM
 #9

This is not FUD...it's FACT. 
Err, you seem to be getting some terms confused here.

Fact: the cost of getting BTC transactions confirmed quickly has risen dramatically since two years ago.
Subjective:  this will result in a drop in the BTC/fiat exchange rate.

Speculators can be extremely irrational.  A lot of the time, the price doesn't follow any kind of meaningful events like that.
Realist247 (OP)
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December 11, 2017, 04:47:35 PM
 #10

This is not FUD...it's FACT.  
Err, you seem to be getting some terms confused here.

Fact: the cost of getting BTC transactions confirmed quickly has risen dramatically since two years ago.
Subjective:  this will result in a drop in the BTC/fiat exchange rate.

Speculators can be extremely irrational.  A lot of the time, the price doesn't follow any kind of meaningful events like that.

Err..I'm actually just paraphrasing what he said.  Make a phone call to MIT and complain to him if you think he's full of crap.  What will happen is common sense....if you want to call it subjective, it doesn't bother me one bit.

Fact:  the forum has been flooded with complaints and threads on this issue over the past few days as people are making transactions at these price levels...and are extremely disturbed at their experience.
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December 11, 2017, 09:21:37 PM
 #11

This is not FUD...it's FACT.  
Err, you seem to be getting some terms confused here.

Fact: the cost of getting BTC transactions confirmed quickly has risen dramatically since two years ago.
Subjective:  this will result in a drop in the BTC/fiat exchange rate.

Speculators can be extremely irrational.  A lot of the time, the price doesn't follow any kind of meaningful events like that.

Err..I'm actually just paraphrasing what he said.  Make a phone call to MIT and complain to him if you think he's full of crap.  What will happen is common sense....if you want to call it subjective, it doesn't bother me one bit.

Fact:  the forum has been flooded with complaints and threads on this issue over the past few days as people are making transactions at these price levels...and are extremely disturbed at their experience.
Is there any chance that the implementation if the Lightning Network will resolve this whole fee issue (and also the time requirement of the small transactions)?
I understand that the LN will not fundamentally lower the on chain transactions' fee level (just a bit) but if you have the possibility to use the LN transactions to spend (or transfer) your bitcoins, and it confirms in some seconds, people will be OK with bitcoin and they won't search for any other alts to use for daily purposes.
It just needs some luck to have LN in the house before your above metioned concerns becomes real. I hope that LN will lower the fees of the micro transactions and we could buy coffee with bitcoin in the near future
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December 11, 2017, 09:39:59 PM
 #12


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/540921/the-looming-problem-that-could-kill-bitcoin/

This was over 2 years ago.  Those that ran the price up over the last $9000 probably have no idea about these issues.  With things the way they are they will find out...and that's when the panic selling will begin.  This is not FUD...it's FACT.  Everyone was warned by the top dev...and nothing was done.  Now is a good time for everyone to look into futures and options to hedge their bets if they cannot sell.


Fact. Those piling into Bitcoin over the past few months know little about these issues because most generally never have and never will use Bitcoin (or even own them!). They are investors who intend to hold, probably on exchanges or site wallets, and with their eyes on thousands of dollars of profit, the small matter of fees won't be a concern.

Fact. I still haven't found a method with lower fee costs to transfer the values I do as a regular user.

Fact. They can hedge all they want with futures but the ones available now can't be settled with Bitcoin.

Arguable. Scalability is a good problem to face. Many alts would love to have this problem.

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KingScorpio
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December 11, 2017, 09:51:21 PM
 #13

It was to be expected since the fees are denominated in bitcoin. Imagine how it will look like if the bitcoin reaches the 100000$? Fee of 100$-200$. So with this in mind it's clear that bitcoin will not be used as a payment means but purely as a value store until fees are severely reduced in btc.

That's wishful thinking.  Just like Gavin said, BTC will die.  People will dump it and run to an altcoin that doesn't have these scaling problems....an all-in-one solution.  What everyone dreams of happening is the crypto equivalent of holding gold (BTC) while using silver (LTC) for day to day transactions.  That won't happen.  Most people will just dump their BTC and pile into LTC, Dash, or some other all-on-one coin.

jep and this is in an accelerating effect, people will want to dumb bitcoin and the altcoins will want to take their chance and feed on bitcoins corpse

they are all already waiting and preparing for this, so better silently sell end get out of the bitcoin sect, before others silently do.

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December 11, 2017, 10:03:06 PM
 #14

the altcoins will want to take their chance and feed on bitcoins corpse
There are so many of them that it's impossible to say which one is the most relevant or most secure.  Most people still regard Bitcoin as the constant which all these alts revolve around.
I'm actually just paraphrasing what he said.
That's funny, because I didn't see him mention that "panic selling" was going to occur, and in the article I didn't see any assumptions about price, just about usage.  You're still assuming that speculators are rational, when this is often not the case.

Perhaps you're getting the term "paraphrasing" confused as well.
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December 11, 2017, 10:06:31 PM
 #15


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/540921/the-looming-problem-that-could-kill-bitcoin/

This was over 2 years ago.  Those that ran the price up over the last $9000 probably have no idea about these issues.  With things the way they are they will find out...and that's when the panic selling will begin.  This is not FUD...it's FACT.  Everyone was warned by the top dev...and nothing was done.  Now is a good time for everyone to look into futures and options to hedge their bets if they cannot sell.


It is now evident that fees and scalability issue aren't the obstacle in the way of bitcoin and its price. If so is the case then people would have already migrated to any of the rest of 1000+ cryptocurrencies or there would have been flippening already with some forked coin. But this isn't the case. People aren't affected from transaction delay or high fees while purchasing bitcoins. The central idea behind bitcoin has been changed and people are more interested in buying, holding and selling at higher prices rather than using bitcoins in general transactions.

wow great then explain pls, why ireland electricity production is necessary for this "value storage" while there are people starving or wells cant be drilled? or children and schools dont have electricity for light or cooking in the third world, or where there are constant electricity shorages?

bitcoin is popular because the central banksters arent popular, in the nation state economy everyone is at risk except them, its now time they learn to live with risks, bitcoin drives its value from the banksters unpopularity many see bitcoin as their crypto hand granate against the banksters, they dont care weather they will grab for an alt coin later.

the tulp mania in the netherlands also changed the netherlands forever, tulps became the countries national symbol, but never again a house was traded for a "semper augustus"

bitcoin at its earliest begining marketed itself as low cost alternative to banks, now its an energy wasting high cost alternative to banks

regards

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December 11, 2017, 10:55:04 PM
 #16


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/540921/the-looming-problem-that-could-kill-bitcoin/

This was over 2 years ago.  Those that ran the price up over the last $9000 probably have no idea about these issues.  With things the way they are they will find out...and that's when the panic selling will begin.  This is not FUD...it's FACT.  Everyone was warned by the top dev...and nothing was done.  Now is a good time for everyone to look into futures and options to hedge their bets if they cannot sell.


It is now evident that fees and scalability issue aren't the obstacle in the way of bitcoin and its price. If so is the case then people would have already migrated to any of the rest of 1000+ cryptocurrencies or there would have been flippening already with some forked coin. But this isn't the case. People aren't affected from transaction delay or high fees while purchasing bitcoins. The central idea behind bitcoin has been changed and people are more interested in buying, holding and selling at higher prices rather than using bitcoins in general transactions.

wow great then explain pls, why ireland electricity production is necessary for this "value storage" while there are people starving or wells cant be drilled? or children and schools dont have electricity for light or cooking in the third world, or where there are constant electricity shorages?

bitcoin is popular because the central banksters arent popular, in the nation state economy everyone is at risk except them, its now time they learn to live with risks, bitcoin drives its value from the banksters unpopularity many see bitcoin as their crypto hand granate against the banksters, they dont care weather they will grab for an alt coin later.

the tulp mania in the netherlands also changed the netherlands forever, tulps became the countries national symbol, but never again a house was traded for a "semper augustus"

bitcoin at its earliest begining marketed itself as low cost alternative to banks, now its an energy wasting high cost alternative to banks

regards
Well, bitcoin is wasting some electricity, that's OK. What I don't think is that Bitcoin uses as much electricity as banks. There are a few really big banks where only the HQs and the branches in capital citys use as much energy as Bitcoin itself with miners and users, etc. Big banks has not only HQs but branches at the countryside too, ATMs, etc, so they use way much more electricity compared to Bitcoin.
From this point of view, bitcoin can save some electricity compared to banks and can do the international money transfer with much less consumed electricity than a bank.
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December 11, 2017, 11:23:32 PM
Last edit: December 12, 2017, 07:39:55 AM by setifien19
 #17

Fees were always the main problem in bitcoin ( especially when it reaches new values); I think people will reduce their number of transactions==> trading volume will be reduced ( they will use it just to store their money in a digital format that has potential to grow ) ; in the other hand , they will move to an altcoin that seems to be fulfilling their requirements
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December 11, 2017, 11:48:34 PM
Last edit: December 15, 2017, 11:05:43 AM by HasHe
 #18

People have started to think bitcoin as a high return giving investment and so they are not bothered about high transaction fee.I think that no one has left bitcoin for that reason.They all know very well that if they leave bitcoins for just high transaction fee,then they would be losing the golden opportunity of earning huge profits.Bitcoin has now crossed the borders of a currency and now its considered as a valuable digital asset.
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