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张召忠:平昌冬奥会或成朝韩言和契机,但美国的策略尚未变
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张召忠:平昌冬奥会或成朝韩言和契机,但美国的策略尚未变
January 03, 2018, 04:02:43 PM
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过完元旦,2018年开始了,俗话说得好,人无远虑必有近忧,2018年会向哪个方向发展?
国外众多媒体已经开始预测2018,比如法国《新观察家》杂志在去年12月18日预测“朝鲜半岛和中东可能在新的一年中爆发战事”;肯塔基大学帕特森外交与国际商务学院讲师罗伯特·法利在12月16日的美国《国家利益杂志》上发表文章,预测2018年的5个最可能爆发“第三次世界大战”的地点:朝鲜半岛、台湾地区、乌克兰、北约南方侧翼、波斯湾地区。
今天,在此也给大家预测一下:首先,中国南海和台海都不会出现重大危机,最大危机仍将聚焦朝鲜半岛。
关于朝鲜半岛,美国一天到晚喊打喊杀,各种大规模军事演习一个接一个,特朗普的嘴炮攻击也一轮接一轮,结果都是高高举起轻轻放下。
新年伊始,各国领导人发表新年贺词。金正恩在新年贺词里针对美国和韩国传递出了不同的信号。
针对美国,他重申朝鲜去年就完成了核武力建设,美国全境都在朝鲜的核打击范围内,而核按钮就在他办公桌上。金正恩提醒美国应该意识到,这不是威胁而是现实,决不容许美国向他和朝鲜发起战争。
说到韩国时,金正恩语气明显缓和,主动向韩国示好。他表示,新年里朝鲜要庆祝建国70周年,韩国要举办冬奥会,所以这是对双方都很有意义的一年,为了“彰显民族尊严和气魄,要改善处于冻结状态的北南关系”,要缓和尖锐的军事紧张状态,营造朝鲜半岛的和平环境。金正恩还表示,衷心祝愿韩国冬奥会顺利举办,而且朝鲜愿意采取包括派团参赛在内的所需措施,为了这件事,还可以和韩国举行紧急会谈。
1月2日,在韩国首尔,韩国总统文在寅在2018年首次国务会议上发言。文在寅说,朝鲜有意派遣代表团参加平昌冬奥会和举行韩朝当局会谈,是对韩方提议将平昌奥运会作为改善韩朝关系契机的回应,韩方对此表示欢迎。新华社 图
韩国这边,当天就表示欢迎,只要是和恢复双方关系、实现半岛和平有关的事,韩国都愿意不限时间、地点、形式与朝鲜开展对话。韩国政府已经向朝鲜提议1月9日举行高级别会谈,重点讨论朝鲜派团参加平昌冬奥会的事。
然而,朝鲜半岛的事,韩国说了也不算。就像之前韩国提议在冬奥会期间暂停推迟美韩军演,韩国也只是向美国提议一下,决定权始终在美国手中。到现在为止,美国没有明确表态说同意暂停。
平昌冬奥会可能成为南北握手言和的契机,但无法改变核导问题。鹬蚌相争渔翁得利,美国坐山观虎斗,乐见朝鲜在东亚生乱生战。所以,美国“借刀杀人”的策略还会继续。
再看世界其他地方,局部危机可能发展为武装冲突,但最多是局部战争,绝无可能爆发世界大战。比如中东,在ISIS被打散之后,以色列、土耳其、伊朗、沙特的四方角力会继续,但不会爆发大规模中东战争;乌克兰东部独立是大势所趋,不会出现美国及北约支持乌克兰收复克里米亚和乌东部的战争。
2018年,美俄关系依然微妙,就算特朗普个人有意和普京修复关系,在“通俄门”的压力下,美俄关系也会持续冷漠。但特朗普不会因“通俄门”下台,相反,其执政地位将更加巩固。
最后来看一个数据,当地时间2017年12月11日,联合国在纽约总部发布了《2018年世界经济形势与展望》。报告显示,全球经济增长趋强,东亚和南亚仍将是世界上最具经济活力和增长速度最快的区域。光是中国,在2017年对全球经济增长的贡献就占大约三分之一。而在很多国际事务上,未来一年,还会出现美退我进的局面。中国,从此将由地区大国走向世界大国。
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