Going to sleep, wake me when it's $100k

[FortuneFollower]

I am not confident to go back to sleep because even $100k might not come again. Many people are optimistic of $120k, $150k and more. But I am afraid that the bear market is fast approaching. It is risky to go to sleep at this time because you might not wake till somewhere 2029

Haha!

You are so serious but you gotta be right in there. The bear based on what's happening could be fastly approaching but even so, I don't think that it's about to come as of this time.

We still have several months for the market to conclude if we're totally approaching on that point because I think we're not yet. Still have some sleep, you'll need that when the skyrocket comes and you'll need energy to get inside. 

Sideway movement it is.
I hope for upward movement from here, clearly, we have facts that would back it up  They would just need to fall like dominos in the right time.

[JayJuanGee]

I am going to sleep, in a creek hotel without paddle. Wake me later tonight when BTC hits $100,000.

Bitcoin reaching $100,000 was a joyous moment for everyone in the first phase. I could never have predicted that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2024. I thought that Bitcoin could reach a maximum of $70,000 to $80,000 by 2024. But Bitcoin has grown rapidly and made people fit.

The price of Bitcoin touching $100k was a moment of joy for everyone as it was the first time in Bitcoin's history that a unique milestone had been reached. In fact, no one's prophecy on Bitcoin prices is not yet correct so what you thought was not correct. The Bitcoin market has not been significantly bullish since the price of Bitcoin fell to $92K a few days ago, i.e. since then we have not seen a significant increase in the price of BTC in the Bitcoin market.

Now we are constantly waiting for new ATH, but again we will fall asleep and wait to see new ATH.

Perhaps it is everyone's expectation that the Bitcoin price will be able to create new ATH again, but given the current trend of Bitcoin price growth in the market, that may not be possible. Right now, the price of Bitcoin is only trending downward.

Funny how both relatively new members and even forum veterans describe bitcoin's price in dismal terms, and proclaim that $100k is some amazing thing that happened and will be difficult to achieve or maintain.

Sure, each time is different, yet we have been in these kinds of repeated patterns several times, and yeah the size of the players change, but the dynamics remain similar.. which is UPpity, and  so anyone who has not stacked more than enough bitcoin, perhaps especially any forum members in their first whole cycle of stacking, are going to be best served by continuing to ongoingly, persistently, consistently, regularly and perhaps even aggressively buy BTC without concerning themselves with the price, since many of you seem to be inadequately and/or insufficiently prepared for up, even when you think that you are, many times  you are not even close to having enough or more than enough, which cannot even be achieved in less than 4 years of stacking unless you have the means to frontload your investment into bitcoin, which again most normies are not really able to front load their investment into bitcoin and they have to rely on ongoing stacking through DCA and lump sum, and perhaps buying on the dip, yet buying on the dip is an inferior method if it is not accompanied by regular and persistent buying, since it tends to devolve into waiting rather than acting... and yeah each of  us have our own choices about the extent to which we act and the extent to which we will have consequences from our choices to act or to not act in regards to making sure that we are continuing to stack bitcoin consistently, persistently, regularly and perhaps aggressively, too.

[Frankolala]

I am going to sleep, in a creek hotel without paddle. Wake me later tonight when BTC hits $100,000.

Bitcoin reaching $100,000 was a joyous moment for everyone in the first phase. I could never have predicted that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2024. I thought that Bitcoin could reach a maximum of $70,000 to $80,000 by 2024. But Bitcoin has grown rapidly and made people fit.

The price of Bitcoin touching $100k was a moment of joy for everyone as it was the first time in Bitcoin's history that a unique milestone had been reached. In fact, no one's prophecy on Bitcoin prices is not yet correct so what you thought was not correct. The Bitcoin market has not been significantly bullish since the price of Bitcoin fell to $92K a few days ago, i.e. since then we have not seen a significant increase in the price of BTC in the Bitcoin market.

Now we are constantly waiting for new ATH, but again we will fall asleep and wait to see new ATH.

Perhaps it is everyone's expectation that the Bitcoin price will be able to create new ATH again, but given the current trend of Bitcoin price growth in the market, that may not be possible. Right now, the price of Bitcoin is only trending downward.

Funny how both relatively new members and even forum veterans describe bitcoin's price in dismal terms, and proclaim that $100k is some amazing thing that happened and will be difficult to achieve or maintain.

Sure, each time is different, yet we have been in these kinds of repeated patterns several times, and yeah the size of the players change, but the dynamics remain similar.. which is UPpity, and  so anyone who has not stacked more than enough bitcoin, perhaps especially any forum members in their first whole cycle of stacking, are going to be best served by continuing to ongoingly, persistently, consistently, regularly and perhaps even aggressively buy BTC without concerning themselves with the price, since many of you seem to be inadequately and/or insufficiently prepared for up, even when you think that you are, many times  you are not even close to having enough or more than enough, which cannot even be achieved in less than 4 years of stacking unless you have the means to frontload your investment into bitcoin, which again most normies are not really able to front load their investment into bitcoin and they have to rely on ongoing stacking through DCA and lump sum, and perhaps buying on the dip, yet buying on the dip is an inferior method if it is not accompanied by regular and persistent buying, since it tends to devolve into waiting rather than acting... and yeah each of  us have our own choices about the extent to which we act and the extent to which we will have consequences from our choices to act or to not act in regards to making sure that we are continuing to stack bitcoin consistently, persistently, regularly and perhaps aggressively, too.

Of course a no coiner and a lower coiner only need to focus on accumulating bitcoin consistently and persistently in order to keep on increasing his bitcoin stash irregardless of the price of bitcoin lije you said, because this is the best opportunity that we have to buy regularly and if possible aggressively since no one knows the price that bitcoin is heading to in future. If we keep on looking at the price if it's pumping or dipping, it can distract, discourage and make one lose focus on steady accumulation with DCA for the future.

The price of bitcoin shouldn't be your concern but your concern should be consistent accumulation and how you can work on improving your income so that you can buy more aggressively overtime.

[AprilioMP]

Haha!

You are so serious but you gotta be right in there. The bear based on what's happening could be fastly approaching but even so, I don't think that it's about to come as of this time.

We still have several months for the market to conclude if we're totally approaching on that point because I think we're not yet. Still have some sleep, you'll need that when the skyrocket comes and you'll need energy to get inside. 

Sideway movement it is.
I hope for upward movement from here, clearly, we have facts that would back it up  They would just need to fall like dominos in the right time.

What is meant like a time bomb to see the price of prices again increases. If so, then I might agree that at this time the market let people make decisions in accordance with their minds in seeing the situation.
If with market conditions like now people do not see how the pattern has ever happened, then that person does not learn from 'past'.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Of course a no coiner and a lower coiner only need to focus on accumulating bitcoin consistently and persistently in order to keep on increasing his bitcoin stash irregardless of the price of bitcoin lije you said, because this is the best opportunity that we have to buy regularly and if possible aggressively since no one knows the price that bitcoin is heading to in future. If we keep on looking at the price if it's pumping or dipping, it can distract, discourage and make one lose focus on steady accumulation with DCA for the future.

The price of bitcoin shouldn't be your concern but your concern should be consistent accumulation and how you can work on improving your income so that you can buy more aggressively overtime.

Well.  I think that part of my point is that so many guys (whether newbies to bitcoin and even several seemingly bitcoin veterans) presume that they have reached enough BTC or more than enough, so they either sell some of their coin waiting for the BTC price to dip (which may well not end up happening), and/or they fail refuse to continue to buy consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively because they are too busy looking at the BTC price rather than looking at the fact that they actually do not have enough BTC, even if they have self-assessed their BTC stash as if it were enough, when it is not enough.  So in the next several years they end up looking back and recognizing that they could have been (and should have been) stacking BTC way more consistently, persistently, ongoingly and aggressively during times like our current times.

[KingsDen]

[edited out]

Of course a no coiner and a lower coiner only need to focus on accumulating bitcoin consistently and persistently in order to keep on increasing his bitcoin stash irregardless of the price of bitcoin lije you said, because this is the best opportunity that we have to buy regularly and if possible aggressively since no one knows the price that bitcoin is heading to in future. If we keep on looking at the price if it's pumping or dipping, it can distract, discourage and make one lose focus on steady accumulation with DCA for the future.

The price of bitcoin shouldn't be your concern but your concern should be consistent accumulation and how you can work on improving your income so that you can buy more aggressively overtime.

Well.  I think that part of my point is that so many guys (whether newbies to bitcoin and even several seemingly bitcoin veterans) presume that they have reached enough BTC or more than enough, so they either sell some of their coin waiting for the BTC price to dip (which may well not end up happening), and/or they fail refuse to continue to buy consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively because they are too busy looking at the BTC price rather than looking at the fact that they actually do not have enough BTC, even if they have self-assessed their BTC stash as if it were enough, when it is not enough.  So in the next several years they end up looking back and recognizing that they could have been (and should have been) stacking BTC way more consistently, persistently, ongoingly and aggressively during times like our current times.

JayJuanGee, I so much understand your idea of consistently and if possible aggressively stacking BTC. In as much as I support your idea, I slightly differ in opinion. I align more with the idea of diversification and purpose of investment.

Diversification: If someone started buying from the region of $15k, this is high enough for the person to withdraw part of their investment and diversify in other assets such as real estate.

Purpose of investment: Buying BTC continuously because we have not gotten enough might lead to an undefined ending. Humans are naturally insatiable and there's no amount of BTC that will be ok for us. So, if anyone is on good profit already, they can withdraw to accomplish a project. Build a home or buy a car and definitely continue the unending BTC journey.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Of course a no coiner and a lower coiner only need to focus on accumulating bitcoin consistently and persistently in order to keep on increasing his bitcoin stash irregardless of the price of bitcoin lije you said, because this is the best opportunity that we have to buy regularly and if possible aggressively since no one knows the price that bitcoin is heading to in future. If we keep on looking at the price if it's pumping or dipping, it can distract, discourage and make one lose focus on steady accumulation with DCA for the future.

The price of bitcoin shouldn't be your concern but your concern should be consistent accumulation and how you can work on improving your income so that you can buy more aggressively overtime.

Well.  I think that part of my point is that so many guys (whether newbies to bitcoin and even several seemingly bitcoin veterans) presume that they have reached enough BTC or more than enough, so they either sell some of their coin waiting for the BTC price to dip (which may well not end up happening), and/or they fail refuse to continue to buy consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively because they are too busy looking at the BTC price rather than looking at the fact that they actually do not have enough BTC, even if they have self-assessed their BTC stash as if it were enough, when it is not enough.  So in the next several years they end up looking back and recognizing that they could have been (and should have been) stacking BTC way more consistently, persistently, ongoingly and aggressively during times like our current times.

JayJuanGee, I so much understand your idea of consistently and if possible aggressively stacking BTC. In as much as I support your idea, I slightly differ in opinion. I align more with the idea of diversification and purpose of investment.

Diversification: If someone started buying from the region of $15k, this is high enough for the person to withdraw part of their investment and diversify in other assets such as real estate.

Purpose of investment: Buying BTC continuously because we have not gotten enough might lead to an undefined ending. Humans are naturally insatiable and there's no amount of BTC that will be ok for us. So, if anyone is on good profit already, they can withdraw to accomplish a project. Build a home or buy a car and definitely continue the unending BTC journey.

I never said anything specifically against diversification, even though you might have understood me correctly in terms of my considering diversification to be less of an important thing - especially to the newer of investors. 

Accordingly, many times diversification is overly emphasized, and in the beginning of any investment, once a person has figured out that bitcoin is a great place to put value, there is no need to diversify beyond bitcoin and cash (which would include the building and maintenance of various back up funds, emergency funds, and keeping healthy cash floats).

I am suggesting that anyone who has identified bitcoin as a good investment, then there should be motivations to get started investing in bitcoin without delay.  Don't wait.  Waiting is not an investment strategy that helps to prepare you for up, especially if you are a no coiner or a low coiner. In that regard, there is likely advantages to accumulating bitcoin consistently, persistent, ongoingly and perhaps aggressively.  

At what point a person might consider diversifying beyond bitcoin and cash will differ from person to person, which is more likely better for each person to try to measure based on his own yearly expenses (or income) rather than proclaiming that there is any certain exact amount (such as $15k) to trigger when diversification might start to make sense  Each person has to attempt to account for his particular financial circumstances and psychology.. (9 individual factors).

Many folks consider diversification too early and put too much priority on diversification, and they end up diluting their bitcoin investment with inferior investments that have no purpose, whether that is real estate, stocks, bonds, commodities or cash equivalents (including that some folks consider buying shitcoins as diversification, which it should not be considered in a way to benefit a bitcoin investment, except perhaps allowing 10% of the value of their BTC holdings to be allowed to go into shitcoins, especially if they cannot resist the temptation to gamble, then limit your placement of value into shitcoins to be less than 10% the size of your bitcoin investment).

In the end, folks can do whatever they like when it comes to investing into bitcoin, if they do it and how they do it and suffer the consequences if they continue to fail/refuse to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP in BTC prices, and the only way to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP is to make sure that you have bitcoin and that you continue to buy BTC regularly, persistently, consistently, ongoingly and perhaps aggressively.... Getting distracted by the BTC price or even getting distracted that you need to diversify for the mere sake of diversification may well be problematic and lead to regrets down the road.. and yeah, do what you like, and find out what happens if you choose to error on the side of waiting rather than acting.  

By the way, there is nothing wrong with preparing yourself financially and psychologically for both up and down BTC prices, yet many folks likely need to continue to invest into bitcoin for at least a full cycle before they will be in a position to be slowing down in their BTC accumulation, unless they had been able to frontload their BTC investment, and an overwhelming majority of people cannot front load their BTC investment because they are not in a great financial position to do so.  

You, KingsDen, are coming on 4 years registered on the forum, and hopefully you have been able to accumulate enough BTC during that time and hopefully, you have  not gotten overly distracted into diluting your bitcoin investment into other areas, including considering that $100k is too high to continue to stack BTC, which seems to be your conclusion and something that you will have to live with the consequences of your allocation choices if you are choosing to wait or to be overly cautious  in regards to your  BTC accumulation journey, especially if you still might  be in your early bitcoin accumulation stages..  

[_BlackStar]

-snip-

What is meant like a time bomb to see the price of prices again increases. If so, then I might agree that at this time the market let people make decisions in accordance with their minds in seeing the situation.
If with market conditions like now people do not see how the pattern has ever happened, then that person does not learn from 'past'.

What you know about the past may not be repeated in the future - even if there is hope that history will repeat itself. The price of bitcoin can rise higher at any time when demand increases – and it can also fall at any time when supply is high. The time bomb may explode when the time comes - but you will never be able to count down to the right time to see bitcoin prices peak.

[KingsDen]

[edited out]

Of course a no coiner and a lower coiner only need to focus on accumulating bitcoin consistently and persistently in order to keep on increasing his bitcoin stash irregardless of the price of bitcoin lije you said, because this is the best opportunity that we have to buy regularly and if possible aggressively since no one knows the price that bitcoin is heading to in future. If we keep on looking at the price if it's pumping or dipping, it can distract, discourage and make one lose focus on steady accumulation with DCA for the future.

The price of bitcoin shouldn't be your concern but your concern should be consistent accumulation and how you can work on improving your income so that you can buy more aggressively overtime.

Well.  I think that part of my point is that so many guys (whether newbies to bitcoin and even several seemingly bitcoin veterans) presume that they have reached enough BTC or more than enough, so they either sell some of their coin waiting for the BTC price to dip (which may well not end up happening), and/or they fail refuse to continue to buy consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively because they are too busy looking at the BTC price rather than looking at the fact that they actually do not have enough BTC, even if they have self-assessed their BTC stash as if it were enough, when it is not enough.  So in the next several years they end up looking back and recognizing that they could have been (and should have been) stacking BTC way more consistently, persistently, ongoingly and aggressively during times like our current times.

JayJuanGee, I so much understand your idea of consistently and if possible aggressively stacking BTC. In as much as I support your idea, I slightly differ in opinion. I align more with the idea of diversification and purpose of investment.

Diversification: If someone started buying from the region of $15k, this is high enough for the person to withdraw part of their investment and diversify in other assets such as real estate.

Purpose of investment: Buying BTC continuously because we have not gotten enough might lead to an undefined ending. Humans are naturally insatiable and there's no amount of BTC that will be ok for us. So, if anyone is on good profit already, they can withdraw to accomplish a project. Build a home or buy a car and definitely continue the unending BTC journey.

Xxx...
You, KingsDen, are coming on 4 years registered on the forum, and hopefully you have been able to accumulate enough BTC during that time and hopefully, you have  not gotten overly distracted into diluting your bitcoin investment into other areas, including considering that $100k is too high to continue to stack BTC, which seems to be your conclusion and something that you will have to live with the consequences of your allocation choices if you are choosing to wait or to be overly cautious  in regards to your  BTC accumulation journey, especially if you still might  be in your early bitcoin accumulation stages..  

You surely predicted me very well and I feel it is a product of your experience in this space. I am honestly distracted and I am feeling $100k is a way high to keep stacking. I am more of the opinion that I wait till bear market to repeat the cycle of investment.
However, I started having double thoughts when I read a random article that the 4 year cycle of bitcoin might end this season. The writer suggested that we could be on the bull run for a longer time than usual and just experience a little time of the bear market before we move to the bull market again. He suggested that those who converts BTC to stable coin and wait for bear market to re+invest might miss out opportunities this time around.

So, I am a kind of confused because I wouldn't like to see BTC return to 40k region when I had the opportunity to exit at the $100k region. On a second thought, I could exit now and BTC never reverses till 2030. I don't know if you have a special kind of advice for me on this.

I read franky1 post and he mentioned that even in this Q1 of 2025 that bitcoin has the ability to do $300k+. I have not being as confused as I am now even when I was a newbie.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Of course a no coiner and a lower coiner only need to focus on accumulating bitcoin consistently and persistently in order to keep on increasing his bitcoin stash irregardless of the price of bitcoin lije you said, because this is the best opportunity that we have to buy regularly and if possible aggressively since no one knows the price that bitcoin is heading to in future. If we keep on looking at the price if it's pumping or dipping, it can distract, discourage and make one lose focus on steady accumulation with DCA for the future.

The price of bitcoin shouldn't be your concern but your concern should be consistent accumulation and how you can work on improving your income so that you can buy more aggressively overtime.

Well.  I think that part of my point is that so many guys (whether newbies to bitcoin and even several seemingly bitcoin veterans) presume that they have reached enough BTC or more than enough, so they either sell some of their coin waiting for the BTC price to dip (which may well not end up happening), and/or they fail refuse to continue to buy consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively because they are too busy looking at the BTC price rather than looking at the fact that they actually do not have enough BTC, even if they have self-assessed their BTC stash as if it were enough, when it is not enough.  So in the next several years they end up looking back and recognizing that they could have been (and should have been) stacking BTC way more consistently, persistently, ongoingly and aggressively during times like our current times.

JayJuanGee, I so much understand your idea of consistently and if possible aggressively stacking BTC. In as much as I support your idea, I slightly differ in opinion. I align more with the idea of diversification and purpose of investment.

Diversification: If someone started buying from the region of $15k, this is high enough for the person to withdraw part of their investment and diversify in other assets such as real estate.

Purpose of investment: Buying BTC continuously because we have not gotten enough might lead to an undefined ending. Humans are naturally insatiable and there's no amount of BTC that will be ok for us. So, if anyone is on good profit already, they can withdraw to accomplish a project. Build a home or buy a car and definitely continue the unending BTC journey.

Xxx...
You, KingsDen, are coming on 4 years registered on the forum, and hopefully you have been able to accumulate enough BTC during that time and hopefully, you have  not gotten overly distracted into diluting your bitcoin investment into other areas, including considering that $100k is too high to continue to stack BTC, which seems to be your conclusion and something that you will have to live with the consequences of your allocation choices if you are choosing to wait or to be overly cautious  in regards to your  BTC accumulation journey, especially if you still might  be in your early bitcoin accumulation stages..  

You surely predicted me very well and I feel it is a product of your experience in this space. I am honestly distracted and I am feeling $100k is a way high to keep stacking. I am more of the opinion that I wait till bear market to repeat the cycle of investment.

Certainly it is completely your choice, and I am not sure if I need to lecture much further, even though it can be difficult to resist.  

In bitcoin, there are so many folks in bitcoin historically who had failed/refused to stack BTC because they were overly focused on cost per BTC, and so there are many ways to show historically realistic examples of financially similar folks, yet one was more aggressively stacking and the other one was waiting for dips and trying to be strategic about it. If we go over a longer timeline, frequently the more aggressive guy will end up with way more BTC, even though his costs per BTC would likely be higher than the less aggressive guy.  

So just consider two guys who started 8 years ago in 2017.  They each started with a lump sum of money of maybe $6k, and they each had an income in which they could invest  $100 per week.  The whimpy guy was continuously waiting for opportunities, and  the more aggressive guy invested all of his $6k right away and then invested $100 per week into bitcoin.

Let's say that the more aggressive guy ended up buying around 3 BTC with his initial $6k, and then over the next 8 years until now, with his $100 per week, he had invested an additional $41,800 and he accumulated an additional 4.6501 BTC.  So into total he has invested $47,800, and he has accumulated 7.6501 BTC.  I  have doubts that the whimpy guy or the waiter would have  similar results in his attempt to time the market, and I doubt that he  would have had invested as much  as the aggressive guy, and he  may well may have ended up with less than half as much BTC.  Sure you can make up scenarios that the whimpy waiter guy could have had outperformed the aggressive guy, but I doubt that your scenarios would be realistic in terms of our attempts to describe (and capture) personality types that are related to how convicted a person is in relation to bitcoin and whether and how they act upon such conviction.

I doubt that bitcoin's investment thesis is weaker today as compared to what it was in early 2017, and at all times in bitcoin's history there have been various levels of uncertainty.

Another thing is that if you are investing into bitcoin regularly (like weekly), then your regularly reinforcement of the practice of buying bitcoin helps to both build and to reinforce your level of conviction in regards to your investment into bitcoin.

However, I started having double thoughts when I read a random article that the 4 year cycle of bitcoin might end this season. The writer suggested that we could be on the bull run for a longer time than usual and just experience a little time of the bear market before we move to the bull market again. He suggested that those who converts BTC to stable coin and wait for bear market to re+invest might miss out opportunities this time around.

It does not seem productive to be attempting to plan your BTC accumulation upon what bitcoin may or may not do, since none of us knows the future, even if some of us end up being more right than others, yet directionally, we can still get some ideas about bitcoin inclining upwardly, whether we have any price corrections from here or whether we have an exponential price rise from here or not.

I doubt that a waiting strategy is helpful, even if you start to focus on buying $100 per week in bitcoin, and you spend several months doing that, and then the BTC price drops to $70k, and then you get mad at yourself because you had been buying bitcoin for 40% to 80% higher over the previous several months.

There can be ways that you have a focus on mostly buying, so that you hedge in both directions, and if your budget for buying BTC is $100 per week, maybe you just buy $70 per week, and you save the other $30 per week for dips that may or may not end up happening.  If no dip happens for 3 months, then at that point you might have close to $400 in your buying on dip fund.    Also if you get a bonus of $2k, then maybe you continue with the same proportions, you use $1,400 to buy bitcoin right away, and you put $600 in your buying on dip account. Surely, you can choose your parameters in regards to how much to put in each fund, and also how much of a dip that you would need to buy on dips with your buying on dip funds.  

I personally get the impression that you have been overly whimpy in your DCAing, and you should figure out ways to become more aggressive in your ongoing and regular investing into BTC and to be less focused on what you believe the BTC price may or may not do.  You can put systems into place in which you don't really  have to decide. You buy within your formula every week and you put into your buy on dip fund that also has some reasonable formulas.  

Maybe you will tell me that your discretionary income numbers are not the same as the ones that I provided, yet you can adjust your numbers to account for your quantity and also for the fact that maybe you have irregular income and/or irregular expenses, so that you have to figure out your available amounts for BTC based on such irregularities.. There is nothing wrong with that. Each of us should be able to  establish systems to figure out how much we have available.

We also are not able to be aggressive in our bitcoin investment if we do not have various backup funds and emergency funds in place, so sometimes we will have to build up our back up funds in order that  we are able to be as aggressive as we are able to be without over doing it.... and We should not be  putting ourselves in situations in which we are having to tap into our emergency funds... and our bitcoin investment also should not be serving any part of our emergency funds, since our emergency funds need to be 3 months of expenses in our local currency.

So, I am a kind of confused because I wouldn't like to see BTC return to 40k region when I had the opportunity to exit at the $100k region. On a second thought, I could exit now and BTC never reverses till 2030. I don't know if you have a special kind of advice for me on this.

If you have not reached a status of overaccumulation in your BTC stash size, then you should not be selling any BTC and you should still be accumulating BTC.  You seem to be wanting to trade to buy back cheaper, but you don't want to make any mistake, and I have difficulties suggesting any selling prior to reaching overaccumulation status.

Sure it could  be that you are also motivated by not having any other investments to offset your BTC, such as emergency funds  and other back up funds.

I have a hard time believing anyone could have reached overaccumulation status with less than 4 years, but if you are feeling that you have too much BTC,  then you might want to shave off some portion  of your stash to feel more balanced.

Maybe an example could help?  If you are investing 10% of your income into bitcoin, it would take you 10 years to reach 1 year worth of your income invested into bitcoin, and sure of course, bitcoin may well could have appreciated in value during that time, and so your earlier years of investment would have grown more and compounded upon themselves as compared to your later investment amounts.  It takes time in the market for the investment to compound in value upon itself, yet if you have ONLY been investing less than a whole cycle then it is difficult to imagine that you would have invested more than a year of your income into bitcoin (unless you were investing 25% per year or somehow front loading your bitcoin investment), yet you seem to be concerned about the BTC going up in value rather than strictly considering how much you had invested...yet sure they are both factors, yet people have problem building wealth when they cannot  let their investment ride and they continue to withdraw from  their investment, so they end up stifling their investment and its abilities to compound upon itself... which seems to be what you are inclined to do based on your overly preoccupation on BTC price  rather  than continuing to let your investment ride and to add to it.

You have to figure out for yourself how you can be able to both let your bitcoin investment ride and  to continue to add to it, especially since it is quite likely that you have not yet reached an overaccumulation status.

I read franky1 post and he mentioned that even in this Q1 of 2025 that bitcoin has the ability to do $300k+. I have not being as confused as I am now even when I was a newbie.

Sure, it is true that in the short term, we cannot know BTC price direction nor how extreme BTC price moves might go in either direction, and surely $300k is ONLY a 3x price appreciation from here, which has happened many times in bitcoin's history and is surely within the realm of possible, even if it might not have high odds... especially for this quarter.  

I personally get frustrated talking with guys about trading ideas rather than investing ideas, and so you have so many trading ideas and seeming inabilities to figure out long term ideas that might be 4-10 years or longer.

If we are talking past each other, and you are just figuring out ways to try to trade these moves prior to your even have had stayed focus on building your BTC stash, then we are thinking about bitcoin in different ways.

You may have seen posts from me in which I describe selling BTC as a way to take off some extra value and to provide downside insurance.  I don't consider selling BTC in order to  be able to buy back lower or with expectations to buy back lower...so that is part of the reason that I continue to harp on the need to reach a status of overaccumulation before incorportating selling into any bitcoin management strategy.

If you had invested a whole years income into bitcoin over the past 4 years, and then bitcoin went up 10x, then you would have 10 years of income invested into bitcoin, yet that would be spot price values, which we know are uncertain.  

if you invested a similar amount into bitcoin on a weekly basis over the past 4 years, then your average cost per  BTC would be in the ballpark of the 200-WMA - which is currently around  $44k, so then right now, your profits above the 200-WMA are in the ballpark of more than 2x, and yeah, if the BTC price went up to $440k, then you would be 10x in profits,  but then there still would be a question regarding  how much you put in, and if you merely put in less than 6 months of your income during that time, then you would have ONLY 5 years of income in bitcoin, yet at BTC spot prices, which we know tend to be quite volatile, especially if they were to go up to $440k in this cycle.

[letteredhub]

I am going to sleep, in a creek hotel without paddle. Wake me later tonight when BTC hits $100,000.

Bitcoin reaching $100,000 was a joyous moment for everyone in the first phase. I could never have predicted that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2024. I thought that Bitcoin could reach a maximum of $70,000 to $80,000 by 2024. But Bitcoin has grown rapidly and made people fit.

The price of Bitcoin touching $100k was a moment of joy for everyone as it was the first time in Bitcoin's history that a unique milestone had been reached. In fact, no one's prophecy on Bitcoin prices is not yet correct so what you thought was not correct. The Bitcoin market has not been significantly bullish since the price of Bitcoin fell to $92K a few days ago, i.e. since then we have not seen a significant increase in the price of BTC in the Bitcoin market.

Now we are constantly waiting for new ATH, but again we will fall asleep and wait to see new ATH.

Perhaps it is everyone's expectation that the Bitcoin price will be able to create new ATH again, but given the current trend of Bitcoin price growth in the market, that may not be possible. Right now, the price of Bitcoin is only trending downward.

Funny how both relatively new members and even forum veterans describe bitcoin's price in dismal terms, and proclaim that $100k is some amazing thing that happened and will be difficult to achieve or maintain.

Sure, each time is different, yet we have been in these kinds of repeated patterns several times, and yeah the size of the players change, but the dynamics remain similar.. which is UPpity, and  so anyone who has not stacked more than enough bitcoin, perhaps especially any forum members in their first whole cycle of stacking, are going to be best served by continuing to ongoingly, persistently, consistently, regularly and perhaps even aggressively buy BTC without concerning themselves with the price, since many of you seem to be inadequately and/or insufficiently prepared for up, even when you think that you are, many times  you are not even close to having enough or more than enough, which cannot even be achieved in less than 4 years of stacking unless you have the means to frontload your investment into bitcoin, which again most normies are not really able to front load their investment into bitcoin and they have to rely on ongoing stacking through DCA and lump sum, and perhaps buying on the dip, yet buying on the dip is an inferior method if it is not accompanied by regular and persistent buying, since it tends to devolve into waiting rather than acting... and yeah each of  us have our own choices about the extent to which we act and the extent to which we will have consequences from our choices to act or to not act in regards to making sure that we are continuing to stack bitcoin consistently, persistently, regularly and perhaps aggressively, too.

Maybe if all categories of bitcoin investors get to focus more on increasing their portfolio than the energy they exert in focusing on bitcoin price falling which now turns to be a determinant for buy for the most of them then they could be stacking so much within four years beyond what they never imagined . But because people gives so much attention to the price of bitcoin waiting for a dip to activate a buy as best way to maximize better profit, but this they do without been aggressive in the process thereby affecting how much they could stack before even a circle is met. Perhaps if we could do away with the thinking about bitcoin price falling and rather develop an upward trend mentality towards the future of bitcoin it would robustly increase our stacking culture than when we wait on just the dip.

[KingsDen]

Thank you JayJuanGee. I have gotten the clear picture of your suggested investment strategy. I will apply your strategy of 70:30, incase of dip or bear, the 30% will be used to buy more. The idea is making me reluctant or guilt to sell BTC while accumulating aggressively.

[JayJuanGee]

I am going to sleep, in a creek hotel without paddle. Wake me later tonight when BTC hits $100,000.

Bitcoin reaching $100,000 was a joyous moment for everyone in the first phase. I could never have predicted that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2024. I thought that Bitcoin could reach a maximum of $70,000 to $80,000 by 2024. But Bitcoin has grown rapidly and made people fit.

The price of Bitcoin touching $100k was a moment of joy for everyone as it was the first time in Bitcoin's history that a unique milestone had been reached. In fact, no one's prophecy on Bitcoin prices is not yet correct so what you thought was not correct. The Bitcoin market has not been significantly bullish since the price of Bitcoin fell to $92K a few days ago, i.e. since then we have not seen a significant increase in the price of BTC in the Bitcoin market.

Now we are constantly waiting for new ATH, but again we will fall asleep and wait to see new ATH.

Perhaps it is everyone's expectation that the Bitcoin price will be able to create new ATH again, but given the current trend of Bitcoin price growth in the market, that may not be possible. Right now, the price of Bitcoin is only trending downward.

Funny how both relatively new members and even forum veterans describe bitcoin's price in dismal terms, and proclaim that $100k is some amazing thing that happened and will be difficult to achieve or maintain.

Sure, each time is different, yet we have been in these kinds of repeated patterns several times, and yeah the size of the players change, but the dynamics remain similar.. which is UPpity, and  so anyone who has not stacked more than enough bitcoin, perhaps especially any forum members in their first whole cycle of stacking, are going to be best served by continuing to ongoingly, persistently, consistently, regularly and perhaps even aggressively buy BTC without concerning themselves with the price, since many of you seem to be inadequately and/or insufficiently prepared for up, even when you think that you are, many times  you are not even close to having enough or more than enough, which cannot even be achieved in less than 4 years of stacking unless you have the means to frontload your investment into bitcoin, which again most normies are not really able to front load their investment into bitcoin and they have to rely on ongoing stacking through DCA and lump sum, and perhaps buying on the dip, yet buying on the dip is an inferior method if it is not accompanied by regular and persistent buying, since it tends to devolve into waiting rather than acting... and yeah each of  us have our own choices about the extent to which we act and the extent to which we will have consequences from our choices to act or to not act in regards to making sure that we are continuing to stack bitcoin consistently, persistently, regularly and perhaps aggressively, too.

Maybe if all categories of bitcoin investors get to focus more on increasing their portfolio than the energy they exert in focusing on bitcoin price falling which now turns to be a determinant for buy for the most of them then they could be stacking so much within four years beyond what they never imagined . But because people gives so much attention to the price of bitcoin waiting for a dip to activate a buy as best way to maximize better profit, but this they do without been aggressive in the process thereby affecting how much they could stack before even a circle is met. Perhaps if we could do away with the thinking about bitcoin price falling and rather develop an upward trend mentality towards the future of bitcoin it would robustly increase our stacking culture than when we wait on just the dip.

Most normies are going to need more than a whole cyle to build their BTC stack to a decently sufficient size, even if they might be in a position to front load their BTC investment., and many do not realize that dynamic.

Sure, there may be some folks who are able to draw from other places, and to really get to sufficiently decent  BTC stack size and perhaps even to overallocate prior to going through a whole bitcoin cycle, and those people are  exceptions, so  any newbie investor does need to consider which category he falls and to assess his own circumstances.

Of course, another aspect of bitcoin, even for those who are able to achieve a status of over-accumulation is the compounding effect of bitcoin, so sometimes there can be quite a bit of payoff from just staying into the bitcoin investment  for more than a whole cycle and perhaps even a couple of cycles.. Yet, the guy who reaches  over-accumulation does have a lot more options, and there is no one set formula for how to  deal with  having had gotten such over-accumulation status.

Thank you JayJuanGee. I have gotten the clear picture of your suggested investment strategy. I will apply your strategy of 70:30, incase of dip or bear, the 30% will be used to buy more. The idea is making me reluctant or guilt to sell BTC while accumulating aggressively.

Even though you are surely responsible for figuring out your own balance, even if you end up getting it wrong.. hahahahahah.. but yeah, for sure, it sounds better if you are figuring out some kind of way that you can prepare yourself financially and psychologically for both directions (either direction).  I frequently assert that if you can prepare yourself financially, the psychological part should mostly follow.

So my understanding if you are keeping 70% of the  value of your BTC investment portfolio in bitcoin, and the other 30% in  cash, and so if you have any new income, such as $100 per  week, you  will put 70% into bitcoin and 30% into cash.  So then with your cash portion you have some parameters that you have described for yourself how you will spend it (perhaps on dips), and so if there is no dips for a while that meet your satisfaction that 30% portion that you keep setting aside will continue to build up until it meets your requirements.  So, depending on how strict are your requirements, then you  might end up depleting and/or getting out of balance from time to time  based  on changed market conditions.

Let's say for example you had been buying $100 per week in bitcoin over the past 3.5 years since you got into bitcoin, so therefore you would have had invested  around $19.5k and you would have accumulated about 0.5552 BTC, and maybe you have already put your emergency fund in place that is 3 months of your expenses, and you might have some other back up funds (so you have been employing good cash management practices). ^**  Let's say that you also have already saved an extra $2k for buying dips.. but you  had  been hesitant to  invest it into bitcoin. 

**Note: I am just making this up as a kind of better case scenario, which you may or may have not been able to achieve these kinds of things,  but just to give some guideline ideas.

Of course in the above scenario your 0.5552 BTC would have a spot price value of $54k-ish,  and a 200-WMA value of $24.5k.   So you could consider your 30% cash reallocation based on either value, and yeah, perhaps you had  already taken such action to shave some of your BTC based on those considerations, but if you had not shaved any then surely  shaving 30% might be a lot to  shave.. but I have my suspicions that  you probably have not been aggressively  accumulating bitcoin over the past 3.5 years, so you have likely been keeping decent amounts of cash..but then maybe some  of that cash cannot be allocated towards possible bitcoin buys but instead making sure that your emergency fund and any other back up funds were sufficiently being kept.

Surely there are tradeoffs for allocation size choices, yet the main thing is that you find sufficient balance in your ways of allocating and if you might  change your allocations from time to time based your changes in sentiment and/or your financial circumstances.

[NicNacCoin]

I am going to sleep, in a creek hotel without paddle. Wake me later tonight when BTC hits $100,000.

Bitcoin reaching $100,000 was a joyous moment for everyone in the first phase. I could never have predicted that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by 2024. I thought that Bitcoin could reach a maximum of $70,000 to $80,000 by 2024. But Bitcoin has grown rapidly and made people fit. Now we are constantly waiting for new ATH, but again we will fall asleep and wait to see new ATH.

I am not confident to go back to sleep because even $100k might not come again. Many people are optimistic of $120k, $150k and more. But I am afraid that the bear market is fast approaching. It is risky to go to sleep at this time because you might not wake till somewhere 2029

Actually, it is very difficult to understand the fluctuations of the Bitcoin market. The Bitcoin market has been going up and down in the past few days. We have noticed today that Bitcoin has crossed 97k dollars, so from here it is expected that Bitcoin can reach 100k dollars again. Why should we sleep for 2029? Maybe by 2025 we can see a new ATH for the price of Bitcoin.

[TopT3ns]

[edited out]

Of course a no coiner and a lower coiner only need to focus on accumulating bitcoin consistently and persistently in order to keep on increasing his bitcoin stash irregardless of the price of bitcoin lije you said, because this is the best opportunity that we have to buy regularly and if possible aggressively since no one knows the price that bitcoin is heading to in future. If we keep on looking at the price if it's pumping or dipping, it can distract, discourage and make one lose focus on steady accumulation with DCA for the future.

The price of bitcoin shouldn't be your concern but your concern should be consistent accumulation and how you can work on improving your income so that you can buy more aggressively overtime.

Well.  I think that part of my point is that so many guys (whether newbies to bitcoin and even several seemingly bitcoin veterans) presume that they have reached enough BTC or more than enough, so they either sell some of their coin waiting for the BTC price to dip (which may well not end up happening), and/or they fail refuse to continue to buy consistently, persistently, ongoingly and perhaps even aggressively because they are too busy looking at the BTC price rather than looking at the fact that they actually do not have enough BTC, even if they have self-assessed their BTC stash as if it were enough, when it is not enough.  So in the next several years they end up looking back and recognizing that they could have been (and should have been) stacking BTC way more consistently, persistently, ongoingly and aggressively during times like our current times.

This is the specific reason why people surrender to the fact that they made the right choice at that particular moment although time changes everything. Decisions are made based on certain criteria and the following factors include, the perception that we have had enough or that there will always be more opportunities. But unfortunately, reality is not always like this and the fact that many people do not realise this until circumstances change dramatically. Certainly, what is obvious in the future is not easy to notice once we’re blinded by data and short-term vision. In retrospect, most often people have practise sessions that other aspects could easily have been done more fluently with little wavering.

[Kelward]

I am going to sleep, in a creek hotel without paddle. Wake me later tonight when BTC hits $100,000.

I'm sure that you've waken up since to see Bitcoin hit $100k mark, it skyrocketed to $109k ATH and for some reasons has been on dip and recovery. Nothing to panic about because I believe that we're still in bull run and it'll rally past the current ATH, it's just a matter of time. I've decided that to have a peace of mind in Bitcoin investment you just have to think long term, if you believe in the potentials of Bitcoin to always reach ATH in bull circles, you'd hodl and wait. Speculations is the much that we can do, no whales can manipulate it's price for long so we have to believe that it'll continue to increase in the future.